North Korea probably couldn't nuke the US military in Guam even if it tried

by Alex Lockie - Business insider - After strong words from President Donald Trump promising "fire and fury" in response to continued threats from Pyongyang, North Korea threatened to launch a nuclear-missile attack on the US military in Guam. But North Korea mentioned a specific missile, the Hwasong-12, that it has tested just once, and an expert contacted by Business Insider says hitting the US military in Guam would be easier said than done. "No one, not even the North Koreans, knows the CEP of the HS-12," Mike Elleman, the senior fellow for missile defense at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Business Insider, referring to circular error probable, or the distance by which a missile can be expected to miss its target. "Having said that, we can guesstimate a minimum CEP from first principles," Elleman said. Essentially, even a small task like cutting off the engines a fraction of a second too late can make the missile go miles off course. "All told, the CEP will be greater than 5 km," Elleman said. (Five kilometers is equal to about 3 miles.) "But this is a very rough estimate.

Given the paucity of flight tests, I suspect if used today, the HS-12 would have a CEP considerably larger than 5 km, perhaps 10 km, or more." While Andersen Air Force Base, the home of the strategic bombers North Korea expressly wanted to target, spans about 35 miles across, North Korea would have greater problems than accuracy. The massive blast radius caused by a nuclear device, which North Korea, according to news reports this week, is believed to have perfected and miniaturized to deliver on missiles, could make up for a lack of accuracy. But serious questions remain around North Korea's ability to build vehicles to reenter the planet's atmosphere through tremendous pressure and friction.

The only test of the Hwasong-12 was done on a lofted trajectory and not a realistic, flatter curve. b-1 bomber guam Four B-1B Lancers assigned to the 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, deployed from Dyess Air Force Base in Texas, arriving at Andersen AFB in Guam on February 6. US Air Force "The more interesting and important question revolves around the missile's reliability," Elleman said. Though Elleman thinks the Hwasong-12 would work more often than not, North Korea would need to launch several missiles, and there's just no evidence it has enough deployed and available. Additionally, the US military at Guam has the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile-interceptor system, perhaps the most reliable anywhere. "We always maintain a high state of readiness and have the capabilities to counter any threat, to include those from North Korea," Lt. Col. Christopher Logan, a Pentagon spokesman, told Business Insider. When North Korea tested its intercontinental Hwasong-14 missile on July 4, the US was aware 70 minutes ahead of time, according to the Diplomat. After North Korea issues a warning like the one it did Tuesday, the US would be even more on guard and may intervene if it spotted North Korea preparing a launch.

Lebanese govt stresses commitment to rid country of terror groups

By NAJIA HOUSSARI BEIRUT: Lebanese President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri on Tuesday stressed the government’s commitment to clearing Lebanese territory from terrorist groups. They highlighted Lebanon’s commitment to the international coalition against terrorism, outlining “the urgent need not to waste any chance to combat and deter terrorism and violence.” Aoun chaired a meeting of the Higher Defense Council at the presidential palace on Monday. It was attended by Al-Hariri; the ministers of defense, foreign affairs, finance, interior, justice and economy; army Commander Gen. Joseph Aoun and other security apparatus leaders. At the end of the meeting, the council issued a statement saying: “The participants discussed the security and military situation in the barren areas close to the Lebanese border, Ras Baalbek and Al-Qaa. The council has taken all the necessary recommendations and decisions to ensure the success of the military operations undertaken to eradicate the terrorists.” The decisions were kept “confidential in compliance with the law.” Arsal Mayor Bassel Al-Hujeiri told Arab News that hundreds of Daesh militants are in the barren areas of Al-Qaa and Ras Baalbek. The negotiator who mediated between Hezbollah and Jabhat Fatah Al-Sham (JFS), Sheikh Mustafa Al-Hujeiri, told Arab News that “no one is currently negotiating with Daesh.” He said negotiations were possible with JFS but “difficult” with Daesh because it “resorts to killing instead of negotiating.”

Pro-army positions Vice Prime Minister and Public Health Minister Ghassan Hasbani told the National News Agency (NNA): “The Lebanese army is the only authority that should protect and preserve Lebanon’s borders and sovereignty.” He added: “The army is the one to decide the timing of the upcoming battle against Daesh, with the support of the political authorities … The necessary measures have been taken to secure the transportation of wounded persons, in cooperation with the Lebanese Red Cross.” A member of the Development and Liberation parliamentary bloc, Yassine Jaber, told the NNA that he is “confident” that the army will prevail against Daesh. Jamaah Islamiyah (Islamic Group) MP Imad Al-Hout expressed his appreciation to the military for its sacrifices, saying it is the sole decision-taker in the upcoming battle. MP Joseph Al-Maalouf expressed hope that the army “will end the battle with minimal physical and material losses.” He told the Voice of Lebanon radio station: “In the past two weeks, after the eruption of the battles on the eastern borders of Lebanon, the Lebanese have shown their full support for the army.” He criticized unilateral decisions taken by Hezbollah in the battle against JFS in the barren areas of Arsal, saying they undermined Lebanese sovereignty

US wants UN mission in Lebanon to report on Hezbollah

by AFP - UNITED NATIONS: The United States wants UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon to take on an expanded mission and investigate alleged violations by Hezbollah militias in the volatile area, Ambassador Nikki Haley said Monday. The UN Security Council is set to vote on renewing the UN interim force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) later this month, and Haley said she will seek “significant improvements” to its mandate. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres informed the council in a letter sent on Friday that he intended to look at ways in which UNIFIL could beef up its efforts “regarding the illegal presence of armed personnel, weapons or infrastructure inside its area of operations.” “We share the secretary-general’s strong desire to enhance UNIFIL’s efforts to prevent the spread of illegal arms in southern Lebanon,” said Haley in a statement. “These arms –- which are almost entirely in the hands of Hezbollah terrorists –- threaten the security and stability of the region.” “UNIFIL must increase its capacity and commitment to investigating and reporting these violations,” she added. Guterres is expected to discuss UNIFIL’s mission when he pays his first visit as UN chief to Israel and the Palestinian territories later this month. Haley has been a strong supporter of Israel, which fought a month-long war against Hezbollah in 2006. The fighting killed more than 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and more than 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers. There has been speculation about the possibility of a new war breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah, a powerful Lebanese paramilitary organization, more than a decade after their last direct confrontation. There have been periodic skirmishes along the UN-monitored demarcation line between Israel and Lebanon, longtime adversaries which are technically still at war with each other. Set up in 1978, UNIFIL was beefed up after the 2006 war and now has 10,500 troops on the ground monitoring the ceasefire and helping the Lebanese government secure its borders. A vote on UNIFIL’s mandate at the council is tentatively scheduled for August 30. – AFP Advertisement

US Special Forces Deploy To Support Lebanese Army’s Operations Against ISIS

by southfront.org

The US-based Arabic TV channel Alhurra claimed that dozens of US soldiers have been deployed in Lebanon to support the Lebanese Army in its upcoming operation against ISIS at the Syrian-Lebanese border. Alhurra claimed that 70 servicemen from US Special Operations Forces are currently in Lebanon but did not reveal the tasks of these soldiers or how they will support the Lebanese Army. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Al-Jumhoria newspaper claimed that the Lebanese government may ask the US-led coalition to provide an air support for the Lebanese Army during its operation against ISIS in the border area. According to the report, Lebanese officials may have contacted Russia and asked them to pressure Syria and Iran to allow US-led coalition warplanes to operate at the Syrian-Lebanese border. However, it appears that Syria is opposing this idea that might lead to establishing of the US-led coalition foothold at the Syrian-Lebanese border. Back in 2014, ISIS fighters captured Jorud Ras Baalbek and Jorud Ras al-Qaa in northeastern Lebanon and Jorud Qara and Grijer in Western Qalamoun inside Syria at the Syrian-Lebanese border. Major General Abbas Ibrahim General director of the Lebanese General Directorate of General Security said that the Lebanese authorities are ready to negotiate with ISIS fighters in Ras Baalbek area if they agree to withdraw like HTS, or they will face a military operation. According to the recent reports, the Lebanese Army will be the main force in the military operation against ISIS in the area. Hezbollah may participate in the operation from the Syrian side. According to Lebanese sources, the operation was delayed because the Lebanese Army had not finished preparations for the effort.

Support to the Lebanese Army

لجيش اللبناني يواجه الارهاب. لك منّا الدعم الكامل يا جيشنا البطل فنحن كلّنا جيشك # لبّيك لبنان# لبّيك يا جيش #لبّيك Khazen.org

Lebanon: No coordination with Syrian army in the war against ISIS

Reuters - The Lebanese army will not coordinate with the Syrian army to fight against ISIS in the Lebanese-Syrian border zone, a military source told Reuters on Saturday, rejecting a local media report of direct military cooperation between the two. The source said the Lebanese army had the military capability to confront and defeat the group without any regional or international support. The presence of ISIS and Nusra Front militants in pockets on Lebanon's border is the biggest military spillover into the country from Syria's civil war. An offensive launched last month by Lebanon's Hezbollah - a key ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad - forced Nusra Front militants to leave for a rebel-held area in northwest Syria under an evacuation deal. The Lebanese army did not take part in that offensive, but has been widely expected to lead an attack against the ISIS pocket. On Friday Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said an assault on ISIS militants in the border zone would begin in a few days. He said the Lebanese army would attack ISIS from the Lebanese side of the border while Hezbollah and the Syrian army would simultaneously attack from the Syrian side. Hezbollah has been fighting alongside the Syrian army against rebels including hardline Sunni Islamists in Syria. On Saturday Lebanese newspaper al-Joumhouria reported from sources that direct military coordination had occurred between the Syrian and Lebanese armies regarding the upcoming offensive against ISIS. The military source said the Lebanese army had been attacking ISIS for some time, by preventing it spreading further and cutting supply routes. Lebanese state news agency NNA and a Hezbollah media unit said on Saturday the Lebanese army had shelled ISIS positions in the Ras Baalbek and al-Qaa areas of northeast Lebanon. Last Update: Saturday, 5 August 2017 KSA 15:56 - GMT 12:56