Demand for Property High in 2017, But Still Far From 2010 Peak: Lebanon

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by the dailyStar.com.lb Demand for properties in Lebanon in 2017 surged by 13.7 percent to 47.6 points compared to 2016, but this score is still far lower than the peak achieved in 2010, according to the Byblos Bank Real Estate Demand Index. “The full year results show that Byblos Bank Real Estate Demand Index averaged 47.6 in 2017, constituting an increase of 13.7 percent from a low base of 41.9 in 2016. However, the index’s average monthly score for the year was 56.7 percent below the annual peak of 109.8 points posted in 2010, and remained 22 percent lower than the index’s monthly trend average score of 61 points since the Index’s inception in July 2007,” the report said. Demand for properties in Lebanon peaked in 2009 and 2010 due to the strong economic growth and high inflows of capital from Arab countries. But this trend eventually fell following the outbreak of war in neighboring Syria and ensuing political bickering at that time which crippled most government departments. Economists agree that GDP growth as well as political and security stability are the main factors determining the future of property demand in Lebanon. The report also showed a drop in the real estate demand in the fourth quarter of last year. “The results show that the index posted a monthly average of 44.9 points in the fourth quarter of 2017, constituting a decline of 9.3 percent from 49.6 points in the third quarter of the year and a decrease of 3.3 percent from 46.5 points in the fourth quarter of 2016. The results constitute the 14th lowest level in 42 quarterly readings,” the report explained.

Commenting on the results, Nassib Ghobril, chief economist and head of the Economic Research and Analysis Department at the Byblos Bank Group, said: “Demand for housing in Lebanon is primarily correlated to political stability, consumer confidence and economic activity. As such, demand for residential real estate in Lebanon decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2017, as the resolution of the political crisis that was triggered by the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri in November could not offset the impact of the Lebanese Parliament’s ratification in October 2017 of a series of tax increases on consumption, income and profits.” Ghobril warned that the new taxes applied by the government at the beginning of 2018 would further hurt the real estate sector in Lebanon. “The negative impact of the tax hikes on sentiment will weigh on the willingness of prospective buyers to acquire a residential unit, given that buying a house constitutes one of the most important investment decisions for the Lebanese, and the value of a house is usually the single most important nonfinancial asset for Lebanese residents,” he added. Ghobril cautioned that “Lebanese residents consider that the increase in taxes and fees will negatively affect their disposable income and purchasing power, and will impact their already-stretched budgets and increase real estate transaction costs, which, in turn, will hold back demand and delay the recovery in real estate activity.’’ The index showed that out of the 1,200 surveyed, only 5.1 percent of Lebanese residents had plans to either buy or build a residential property in the coming six months. Ghobril pointed out that “the index’s results reflect the intentions of the Lebanese to buy or build a house, but these intentions need a conducive environment to translate into actual sales, which, in turn, requires immediate measures and incentives.” He reiterated the need to stimulate demand over the short term by halving the registration fee of purchased residential units for a two-year period as this would incentivize the purchase of property.

Lebanon's Hariri in Riyadh for first time since crisis

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by reuters - RIYADH/BEIRUT — Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Al Hariri visited Saudi Arabia on Wednesday for the first time since his abrupt resignation during a visit there in November set off a major political crisis. Lebanese officials said at the time that Riyadh had forced its long-time ally Hariri to quit and put him under house arrest, because it had lost patience with his political accommodation with the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite Muslim group Hizbollah. Following French intervention, Hariri came back to Beirut and withdrew his resignation, drawing a line under the crisis that had raised fears for Lebanon's stability and thrust it to the forefront of Riyadh's regional tussle with Iran.

Hariri, whose coalition government includes Hizbollah, flew to Saudi Arabia late on Tuesday, taking up an invitation from King Salman that was delivered to him by a Saudi envoy in Beirut on Monday. Hariri met King Salman during his visit, discussing Saudi-Lebanese relations, Saudi state news agency SPA said. Photos and videos circulated of the king and Hariri drinking coffee and smiling in the royal Al Yamama Palace. Hariri became prime minister in 2016 in a political deal that made Hizbollah ally Michel Aoun head of state. "It is clear that the Lebanese file has changed in Saudi Arabia. They were saying to Saad Al Hariri that because you have a deal with Michel Aoun ... and part of Hizbollah in the government, you must resign," a source close to Hariri said. "They have reviewed their calculations with regards to their policy towards Lebanon, and their view that Saad Al Hariri must wage a military war against Hizbollah, or will otherwise be persona non grata," the source added. Berri upbeat on Saudi visit The meeting was attended by Saudi Minister of Interior Prince Abdulaziz Bin Saud Bin Nayef and Foreign Minister Adel Jubeir, amongst others, SPA reported. It did not say if Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman was present. Hariri’s office had previously said he would meet with King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

Western officials have privately criticised Saudi Arabia over the move against Hariri, which they feared could destabilise a country that is hosting some 1.5 million refugees from the conflict in neighbouring Syria. The Washington Post said on Wednesday Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman complained he had been unfairly criticised over Hariri’s resignation. “Now he’s in a better position,” the newspaper quoted the crown prince as saying. After his return, Hariri’s coalition government, which includes Hizbollah, reaffirmed a state policy of staying out of conflicts in the Arab world. Riyadh accuses the heavily armed Hizbollah of waging war across the Middle East as agents of Iran, notably in Yemen which neighbours Saudi Arabia and is seen as the biggest security concern for the conservative Sunni monarchy. Lebanon declared its policy of “dissociation” in 2012 to keep the deeply divided state out of regional conflicts such as the war in neighbouring Syria. Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, also a Hizbollah ally, said he had heard “very positive talk” from the Saudi envoy Nizar Al Aloula about Lebanon and “its historical and civilised role” during his visit to Beirut this week, a statement from Berri’s office said.

How Block 9 could save the Lebanese economy

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by Gulfnews - Sami Moubayed, - Damascus: Lebanon’s long overdue decision, to drill for oil and gas reserves in an offshore water area, has sparked escalating tensions between Beirut and Tel Aviv, threatening, yet again, another military confrontation between the two countries. Israel falsely claims that part of the triangular water area, known as Block 9, is theirs. Lebanon has insisted it would carry on with the drilling despite Israeli threats. In mid-February, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson travelled to Lebanon, hoping to defuse tension by peddling a 2012 demarcation line originally put forth by senior US diplomat Fred C. Hoff. It gave Israel one third of the disputed 860 square kilometres of water in the triangular zone, leaving Lebanon with 550 square kilometres only. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri snapped that the “Hoff Line” was “unacceptable” while Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah called on all Lebanese to reject the US proposal, saying: “This is a battle for all of Lebanon.” Speaking to Gulf News, prominent Lebanese journalist Sarkis Abouzeid said: “Lebanon will carry on with the drilling” regardless of what the Israelis say or do, due to several factors, “primarily of which is a united position between (all sectors and parties) within Lebanese officialdom” and secondly, a united position between the army and the resistance (reference to Hezbollah).”

The former director of news at Al Jadeed Television added: “Israel is now trying to steal what it can snatch, wrongly thinking that Lebanon is weak and divided. A united position strengthens Lebanon in any negotiations or confrontation.” Meanwhile, Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, General Joseph Aoun underlined, “categorical rejection of the Israeli enemy’s sovereignty of Lebanon and its sacred right to invest all its economic resources.” Some Lebanese lawmakers have advised taking the matter to the International Court, but to do that, Lebanon needs a proper demarcation of the waterline — which requires full Israeli cooperation. So far, the Israelis have been anything but cooperative. In mid-February, Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said: “Don’t provoke us and don’t explore or even get close to the disputed line-of-contact.” Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman went a step further, threatening a “full-scale” invasion, should drilling on Block 9 start, calling the act “very provocative.” Block 9, he added, “is by all accounts ours.”

On 29 January 2018, three big oil firms were granted the rights to drill for oil and gas in Lebanon, being France’s Total, Italy’s Eni SpA, and Russia’s Novatek. Total, which has 40 per cent stake in consortium, says that it won’t be digging in the contested area but 25-km away from it — not enough to sooth Lebanese and Israeli fears, it seems, or to give either of them assurances that they won’t be attacked if they take any action. A long overdue affair, the drilling should have started ten years ago but was delayed and put on-hold due to non-stop gripping tension that resulted from aftershocks of former Prime Minister Rafik Al Hariri’s 2005 assassination.

Politics aside, however, Lebanon is in dire need of the lucrative revenue that the discovery of oil and gas would provide, which throw Lebanon’s debt-ridden economy a critical lifeline. According to Mona Sukkarieh, a prominent political risk consultant and co-founder of Middle East Strategic Perspectives, “Seismic surveys have showed very promising results, but only drilling can confirm the presence of hydrocarbon resources in commercial quantities.” Speaking to Gulf News, the ranking oil and gas expert said that the first wells are planned for 2019, and for them to have a significant impact on the country, they must first contain commercial discoveries. “For this wealth to be a game changer” she noted, “their positive impact should be felt beyond this sector, by reviving other sectors in the economy and services, and improving socioeconomic conditions. This doesn’t happen randomly. It requires broader economic vision for the country. In principle, the government is currently working on one with the help of McKinsey.” Sukkarieh notes that development of the oil and gas sector, once and if the discoveries are made and confirmed in commercial quantities, “the first market for any gas is the Lebanese market. The objective is to increase the share of gas in our energy mix. Gas has a lower carbon footprint and is also less expensive.” Generating electricity using gas instead of fuel would cut down our heavy energy bill, which reaches 35 per cent in certain energy-intensive industries such as plastics, glass, and ceramics, by “roughly by $1.5 to 2 billion USD/year, depending on prices.” That in return would improve the competitiveness of Lebanese products, “and if we are able to export (and we might need to because the local market might be too small to justify large-scale infrastructure investments, this would represent additional revenue to the Lebanese economy. Currently, Lebanon relies almost entirely on imports to meet its energy demand, a major cause of concern for a country that has one of the highest ratios of public debt to GDP in the world.”

Saudi Envoy Meets Former Lebanese Premiers, Officials

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by Naharnet - Senior Saudi official Nizar al-Alula continued his meetings for the second day in a row with Lebanese officials and met on Tuesday with former prime ministers Najib Miqati and Tammam Salam and Fouad Saniora. The ex-Premiers have received the Saudi diplomat at their residences in the presence of Saudi ambassador to Lebanon Walid al-Yaacoub and former Saudi Embassy Charge d'Affaires Walid Bukhari. He also held talks with former President Michel Sleiman. Alula had arrived in Beirut on Monday and held separate “positive” meetings with President Michel Aoun and PM Saad Hariri. He met with Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea in Maarab who held a banquet in his honor. Hariri at his meeting in Beirut with the Saudi envoy said he received an invitation to the Kingdom, and that he would make the trip "as soon as possible", a statement issued by his office had said. Al-Alula's visit reportedly aims to turn over a new leaf with Lebanon and comes four months after the shock now-reversed resignation of the prime minister from the Saudi capital.

The November 4 resignation and his prolonged stay in Saudi Arabia stirred tensions between Riyadh and Beirut, amid suspicions he had been placed under house arrest, until France intervened and he returned to Lebanon where the announcement was reversed. Relations between the two countries have been strained by the competing influences in Lebanon of regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran. The Saudi envoy's visit comes ahead of May 6 legislative elections, Lebanon's first since 2009 following three extensions of parliament's mandate.

Two Lebanese brothers in court for Hezbollah drone export case

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by Mxolisi Mngadi - mg.co.za - Two Lebanese citizens are expected to appear at the Kempton Park Magistrate’s Court on Monday for allegedly illegally exporting components of drones to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Johannesburg-based businessman Usama Darwich Hamade, 53, was arrested at his Kempton Park home, while his brother Issam Hamade, 55, was arrested at OR Tambo International Airport after he arrived from abroad. They are both in custody in Johannesburg following their arrests last week. A third suspect, Samir Ahmed Berro, 64, who has Lebanese and British citizenship, is yet to be arrested. They have been accused by the US of illegally exporting items to Hezbollah, which it classified as a terrorist organisation.

Last week’s press statement by the US Attorney’s office for the District of Minnesota details how Usama Hamade, also known as Prince Sam and who reportedly previously claimed to be Lebanese royalty, allegedly lied, saying digital compasses for drones were needed in SA for anti-poaching operations. But the statement said these were actually destined for Hezbollah “co-conspirators in Lebanon”. According to a US indictment, SA was a transit point through which some of these items— including items which could be used in drones— were channelled. The indictment, which also reveals that a person identified simply as Individual A, a South African citizen and resident, apparently unwittingly ordered components which can be used in drones and jets, some of which arrived in the country, but which were then allegedly sent to Lebanon. According to US court documents, dollars were also said to have been transferred to South African company bank accounts for the apparent purchasing of the items. The massive case, based on the US documents, has links to countries that include SA, Japan, Germany and Lebanon. Investigations have been carried out by the US’s Federal Bureau of Investigation, Department of Commerce Office of Export Enforcement, and Homeland Security Investigations. In SA, the Hawks, Crime Intelligence, and Ekurhuleni Metro Police have been involved.

Last Tuesday, February 20, national police spokesperson Vishnu Naidoo confirmed to News24 that the Hamade brothers were in custody. Naidoo said the Hamade brothers were expected to apply for bail in the Kempton Magistrate’s Court on Monday. “The normal extradition process will be followed,” he said, in reference to the US wanting the Hamade brothers to be extradited to stand trial in Minnesota. Naidoo would not divulge any further information, including whether more arrests were expected in SA. —News24

Instagram haters have new app: Vero brainchild of Ayman Hariri

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BY KARISSA BELL - Mashable - Vero, a photo-sharing app that launched in 2015, is the latest app to benefit from ongoing frustration with Instagram's hated algorithm. A week ago, the app was ranked so low it didn't even appear in the App Store's top 1,500 apps; today it's the most popular app in the entire App Store. It's gotten so popular that the app's servers have been overloaded, with many users unable to post or even sign up for an account. The app's pacing to add more than 500,000 users in 24 hours, and that's just on iOS in the U.S., according to data from Sensor Tower, a company that specializes in app analytics.

What is Vero?

Launched in 2015, Vero bills itself as an ad-free "social network that lets you be yourself." The app is the brainchild of billionaire businessman Ayman Hariri, son of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Hariri, who has a net worth of $1.33 billion, according to Forbes, told CNBC he started the app because he was frustrated with the privacy policies of ad-based social networks. In practice, though, it's very similar to Instagram, with a few important differences. Though most users seem to be posting photos, the app also lets you share text and URLs, as well as recommendations for books, TV shows, and movies. Perhaps the app's biggest differentiator from current social networks is that it sorts posts in reverse-chronological feed, not algorithmically. You can also browse posts from your connections by type or browse popular hashtags. It also distinguishes connections based on their relationship to you. You can designate people as close friends, friends, acquaintances, or followers and opt to share posts specifically with these groups. Vero also emphasizes its privacy polices. It says it only collects a minimal amount of data about its users, like their names, email addresses and phone numbers, but doesn't provide data to advertisers or other third parties.

So how does it make money?

The short answer is that it doesn't — at least, not yet. Because there are no ads on the platform, Vero says it will eventually rely on user subscriptions for the bulk of its revenue. The company hasn't begun to implement subscriptions yet — it says it's permanently "waiving" the fee for its first million users — but that users will eventually be required to pay "a small annual fee." (CNBC reported the fee will be "a few dollars a year.") Vero also takes a cut from products other companies sell within the app.

Why now?

Vero first launched in the App Store in 2015, where it initially got very little attention. In December 2015, it briefly reached No. 45 in the App Store's social networking category, according to data from App Annie. It dropped off the charts entirely soon after (the App Store only ranks the top 1,500 apps in any category). That changed in the last few days, though. Late last week, the app suddenly shot up the rankings, moving from No. 566 to No. 1 in a matter of four days, according to data from App Annie. It will soon go from around 600,000 lifetime downloads in the App Store and Google Play, to more than 500,000 in a day, according to forecasts from Sensor Tower. And while it's not clear what has prompted Vero's sudden surge, it appears to be at least partly due to frustration's with Instagram's algorithm, which has been bubbling up for months. Instagrammers have been upset over the app's algorithm since it rolled out last year. But, unlike other changes, which people have gotten used to over time, frustration seems to have only intensified over time. Now, Instagram users are promoting their Vero accounts to followers. There are currently more than 500,000 Instagram posts tagged as #Vero, the majority of which are users posting screenshots of their profiles and asking followers to join them on the app. Whether the app's popularity will last is another matter. Other social apps, like Ello and Peach and Sarahah, have been able to briefly capitalize on Internet virality, but ultimately lacked the staying power to become viable alternatives to Facebook and Instagram.