Who needs Saudi Arabia?

This is an opinion article and does not necessarily represent khazen.org views

By Editorial Board washingtonpost.com -- Washington Post --SAUDI ARABIA, so far, has tried bluster and bullying to silence the questions about journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who disappeared in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul two weeks ago Tuesday. On Sunday, a regime statement threatened to “respond with a larger action” to any sanction stemming from the case; Saudi-owned media floated such steps as cutting back oil production, buying arms from Russia and holding back counterterrorism intelligence. On Monday, King Salman told President Trump in a phone call that he “denies any knowledge of what took place,” according to Mr. Trump, who added “it sounded to me like maybe it could have been rogue killers.” That preposterous suggestion may have anticipated a change in the Saudi story; CNN reported that the regime was preparing to admit that Mr. Khashoggi died in an interrogation gone wrong. If so, there must be consequences not just for those who supposedly erred in killing the journalist but also for whomever ordered the illegal operation in the first place. U.S. intelligence intercepts suggest the order came from Mohammed bin Salman, the reckless crown prince whose excesses had been criticized by Mr. Khashoggi in columns for The Post. We expect to learn more soon: Whatever happened to Mr. Khashoggi appears to have been recorded on video or audiotape. In the meantime, it’s worth considering just how much the United States might have to lose if its relationship with Saudi Arabia ruptured. What about that oil, and the $110 billion in arms purchases Mr. Trump keeps talking about? What about the war on terrorism?

Start with the oil. Saudi Arabia, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, supplied 9 percent of U.S. petroleum imports in 2017, or about 960,000 barrels a day. But thanks to the shale revolution, the United States is essentially energy independent: It, not Saudi Arabia, is now the world’s largest crude-oil producer. Last year, U.S. daily oil exports averaged 6.38 million barrels, or nearly seven times the Saudi imports. If the Saudis cut back production or boycotted the United States, they could temporarily drive up prices, but the beneficiaries would be U.S. shale companies, which over time would fill the gap — and deal a devastating blow to the Saudi oil industry. As for arms sales, someone needs to brief Mr. Trump on the actual results of the promises made to him when he visited Riyadh last year. As Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution sums it up, “The Saudis have not concluded a single major arms deal with Washington on Trump’s watch.” Moreover, an end to supplies of U.S. spare parts and technical support, something Russia cannot provide, would quickly ground the Saudi air force. That would have the welcome effect of ending a bloody bombing campaign in Yemen that a U.N. investigation concluded was probably responsible for war crimes. Saudi Arabia does supply the United States with counterterrorism intelligence. But as Andrew Miller of the Project on Middle East Democracy points out, stopping it “would be a colossal error . . . when there’s already a strong perception in Congress and with Americans that Saudi Arabia has fueled extremism.” Mr. Miller notes that a law passed by Congress in 2016 opens the way for civil suits against the Saudi government for any terrorist acts it enables.

The reality is that Saudi Arabia, which, as Mr. Trump himself has crudely pointed out, would not survive without U.S. security support, has everything to lose from a break in relations, while the United States no longer needs the kingdom as much as it once did. Mr. Trump has overvalued the relationship and encouraged Saudi leaders to believe they can behave recklessly and even criminally without consequence. Whatever the outcome of the Khashoggi case, a fundamental reshaping of the relationship — mandated by Congress, if necessary — is imperative.

Lebanese Fashion Designers Highlight Breast Cancer on Catwalk

by DailyStar.com.lb -- Beyond the glitz and the glam, the event also had a social mission: held during Breast Cancer Awareness Month, profits raised from the shows will go toward fight the disease. The first of the 2018 event’s 25 shows was Lebanese fashion house Choueiter’s newest collection, worn by models who wove their way across an unorthodox catwalk made of two diamond-shaped runways. “Opening the show is great, but very challenging at the same time,” Nabil Choueiter said. The collection’s pieces featured wintery colors black, gold and silver and were based on the idea of the “chic, modern woman,” he added. Choueiter Haute Couture was founded in 1955, when Lebanese designers Georges and Edward Choueiter opened their first atelier in Beirut. They went on to open two more boutiques, in Riyadh and Paris. The Designers and Brands project was established in 2009 by LIPS, an events business catering to Lebanon’s fashion industry. LIPS continues to manage the project and also runs other fashion events as well as Lebanon’s largest modeling network. Its CEO, Johnny Fadlallah, works alongside his daughters Samantha, the company’s COO, and Cynthia, its designers’ coordinator and stylist. When asked about the importance of Beirut hosting such an event, Fadlallah told The Daily Star, “Lebanon was, is and always will be the capital of fashion in the Middle East. We have giants in the field participating.” Farah Mastoura, from UAE-based online dress hire service Designer 24, which has operated in Lebanon for three years, similarly spoke about the high standards in the Lebanese fashion industry. “Lebanese women are always up-to-date when it comes to fashion. That pushes businesses to be up-to-date,” she said. Designer 24, whose models walked the catwalk Monday evening, aims to make luxury designer fashion more accessible by allowing customers to both hire occasion wear and loan their own dresses to the company. Mastoura said: “The aim of our show here is to show people that designer dresses can be accessible to people with all body shapes of all sizes.

This year, LIPS is also introducing a showroom where designers can present their brand, accompanied by a glamorous reception. More than 80 of them will present clothing, accessories, shoes and much more. Such aspects of the event enabled up-and-coming Lebanese fashion stars to present their collections alongside more established designers. Dutch model Michelle Wiegman looked regal in a shimmering dress from Rachad Itani’s fall-winter collection. When asked about the development of the fashion industry in Lebanon, she told The Daily Star, “My experience between now and two years ago is that fashion is going more toward Europe. Brands are focusing on a bigger market.” “For me, the designs are really beautiful I feel like a princess wearing this gown,” she said. Aya Hammoud, a 22-year-old designer who was showing a collection for the first time, told The Daily Star that she believes fashion is “natural for Lebanese people: We’re born like this.” Her fall-winter collection, Stars in the Night, which will be worn on the catwalk Tuesday at 7:30, features modern, metallic pieces inspired by “shiny objects in the darkness.” The 2018 edition of the Designers and Brands event is particularly notable, as all profits from dress sales will go to the Lebanese Breast Cancer Foundation. Maria Farah, one of LIPS’ models, was diagnosed with the disease six months ago, but is now in remission. Farah’s battle with the disease inspired LIPS to host the “Pink Party” Sunday, in coordination with the Lebanese Breast Cancer Foundation. More than 20 celebrities, influencers and bloggers walked the runway in a pink-themed fashion show to raise awareness of the disease. Hairstylists from Schwarzkopf are running a Share Your Hair campaign during the event to encourage attendees to donate their hair to create wigs for women fighting cancer. The LIPS Management Designers and Brands Show will continue each evening from 4-10:30 p.m. until Wednesday, Oct. 10, at the Hilton Beirut Habtoor Grand Hotel. This article has been adapted from its original source.

Gov't formation to take place very soon: Lebanese PM

BEIRUT,(Xinhua) -- Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri said Tuesday that the new government will be formed very soon, the National News Agency (NNA) reported. "I know that the government formation has taken a very long time but we are very close to forming it," said Hariri at the closing ceremony of the Summer of Innovation, an event aimed at promoting new ideas in technology, entrepreneurship and creativity. Meanwhile, a source told the independent online newspaper Elnashra on Tuesday that the government is expected to be formed before the end of this week. "The general atmosphere is very positive. We have reached a consensus with regard to the distribution of cabinet shares and we are still trying to reach an agreement regarding the ministries of education, justice and public works," the unnamed source was quoted as saying. Hariri has been trying to form a government for more than five months since the May elections. He faces hurdles in his attempt to form a 30-member national unity government due to the rifts among rival political factions over the representation of the main Christian parties, as well as the Druze sect.

Saudis Vow To Retaliate With 'Greater Action' If Hit With Sanctions

NPR -- Colin Dwyer --- Nearly two weeks since Jamal Khashoggi vanished in Istanbul, the shadow of the Saudi journalist's disappearance continues to loom ever larger. Now, President Trump is threatening "severe punishment" for Saudi Arabia if suspicions of Khashoggi's murder are confirmed — and Saudis have vowed to retaliate in kind. "The Kingdom also affirms that if it receives any action, it will respond with greater action," Saudi Arabia's state-run news agency said Sunday, ominously noting that the country plays "an influential and vital role in the global economy." Citing an "official source," the Saudi Press Agency added that Riyadh "affirms its total rejection of any threats and attempts to undermine it." Rather, if Saudis face "political pressures" such as accusations or sanctions, "the outcome of these weak endeavors, like their predecessors, is a demise."

The Saudi Embassy in Washington, D.C., later sought to "clarify" those threats on Twitter, noting that "the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia extends it appreciation to all, including the US administration, for refraining from jumping to conclusions on the ongoing investigation." The comments Sunday follow Trump's toughest comments yet about the simmering international controversy. Speaking with CBS's 60 Minutes, the president said that "nobody knows yet" whether the Saudi government ordered the killing of Khashoggi, a frequent critic, as Turkish officials reportedly allege. "It's being investigated, it's being looked at very, very strongly," Trump said. "And we would be very upset and angry if that were the case." Still, he was careful to hedge his language — as he has been largely since Khashoggi vanished after the journalist's visit to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. His administration has been on friendly terms with the Gulf regional power since taking office, supporting the Saudi-led airstrike campaign in Yemen and brokering an arms deal that could be worth $110 billion over the next decade.

During a news conference in the Oval Office on Saturday, Trump responded to a question about his response to the Khashoggi controversy by touting the economic benefits of the weapons sale. "If they don't buy it from us, they're going to buy it from Russia or they're going to buy it from China or they're going to buy it from other countries," he said. "From the standpoint of jobs, economic development, a lot of other reasons, I would like to do something where we could maybe look at other things [than canceling the deal]." Nevertheless, the Saudi Stock Exchange plummeted about 7 percent at one point Sunday on fears of economic fallout from the diplomatic dispute, before recovering some of its losses later in the day.

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Lebanese fund turns to diaspora to revitalise real estate

By Lisa Barrington BEIRUT (Reuters) - Dark apartment windows vastly outnumber the lit in the quiet night streets of Beirut’s waterfront and central districts, a reminder of Lebanon’s long economic and real estate slump. Such unsold luxury properties are now being targeted by the country’s first real estate investment fund, which the founders hope will help revive what was once a main driver of the Lebanese economy. Legacy Central, which aims to raise $1 billion in equity and debt in three $325 million stages, says it will invest wholesale in apartments which developers have been struggling to shift for years, selling them on to Lebanon’s extensive diaspora. “There are lots of young Lebanese living in London specifically who are an excellent target market,” Legacy Central Chairman Massaad Fares told Reuters, adding that the fund expects to make its first close by the end of the year.

Real estate activity and prices have fallen since the outbreak of war in neighbouring Syria in 2011, which heightened regional and domestic political tensions and caused at least 1 million refugees to seek shelter in Lebanon. The slump may have started in luxury properties, but it has filtered down through the market as Lebanon’s stagnant economy and government vacuum weighs on confidence and spending power. In 2013 the Gulf Cooperation Council advised its citizens against travel to Lebanon and since then wealthy Gulf Arabs have been selling property in the formerly popular tourist spot widely seen as more socially liberal than other Arab countries. This is a marked change from the boom years of 2008-10 when Gulf and Lebanese money sought shelter from the global financial crisis and invested in luxury second homes. And the Lebanese, including those working in the Gulf and Africa who have had their finances squeezed by low oil prices and economic strains, are unable to match GCC spending power. In a typical example given by one estate agent, the owner of a penthouse apartment in a bustling part of central Beirut this summer dropped the asking price to $2.5 million, having tried unsuccessfully for three years to sell at $3.5 million.

DIASPORA DEMAND

Up to 4,000 new luxury apartments lie unsold around Beirut, local real estate advisers Ramco said, and banks have been re-scheduling troubled loans, real estate and banking sources said. This is where the fund, Legacy One, hopes to have an impact, by tapping into demand among Lebanese diaspora wanting a connection to their homeland, at lower prices and with easy investment. “They needed more confidence in the developer, less paper work, more after-sales service. They needed a one-stop shop,” said Fares, who has teamed up at Legacy with Namir Cortas, also head of the Real Estate Developers Association of Lebanon. Cortas said Legacy began by scouting unsold properties around $2 million, but is now looking in the $500-600,000 range and potentially lower. Fares said the developer of a typical 30-apartment building in Beirut might have had 20 unsold for a couple of years, owe a bank around $10 million and need another $1 million to finish construction so existing customers can move in. “The bank is pushing him and he needs the money. The developer is really in a challenging position and we come in to save him,” he said. Banks can swap their exposure to troubled project finance loans for bonds issued by the Legacy One investment platform, which cannot strictly be called a fund as Lebanon has no legal framework for investment funds. It is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) for investment by Lebanese investors and lead placement agent Lucid Investment Bank said it has a projected internal rate of return (IRR) of 15 percent, with a five-year initial investment period. (Reporting by Lisa Barrington Editing by Alexander Smith)

Lebanese Anti-Iran Gathering Again Barred from Holding Annual Conference

by aawsat.com -- The anti-Iran Lebanese Saydet el-Jabal gathering announced on Friday that it was again barred from holding its annual conference. Two weeks ago, it accused the Hezbollah party of preventing it from meeting at Beirut’s Bristol hotel. It attempted to hold its meeting at the Gefinor Rotana hotel, but the hotel management refused to host the event, revealed former MP Fares Souaid during a press conference at the Press Syndicate. The gathering includes members of the former March 14 camp and was set to discuss ending Iranian hegemony in Lebanon. Al-Jadeed television reported that Hezbollah’s Liaison and Coordination Officer Wafiq Safa had contacted the station to inform them that he had requested that the Bristol hotel management cancel their reservation because he had allegedly invited the gathering to a meeting in Beirut’s southern suburbs. “We interpreted this claim of responsibility as a security warning,” added Souaid. “We had previously announced that we are witnessing a phase in which political freedoms and freedom of expression are being oppressed,” he continued. On October 10, the gathering had held a meeting, with a number of political and civil society groups, at the Kataeb party headquarters in support of freedoms in Lebanon.

The Saydet el-Jabal conference was rescheduled for October 14 at the Rotana hotel, but the management contacted the gathering on Thursday to say that the reservation was canceled. Souaid reiterated accusations that Lebanon’s freedoms were being suppressed by Iranian hegemony against the country. “The entire political class has succumbed to the hidden authority that is managed by Hezbollah, which is trying through direct and indirect means to eliminate all who object to Iranian tutelage,” he continued. He also accused the entire political class of yielding to this authority, “making it a partner in the crime of silencing liberties.” “Faced with this reality, we vow to wage the battle of lifting Iranian hegemony off Lebanon,” he pledged. Addressing the Lebanese people, he declared: “A Lebanese state capable of resolving your problems cannot be established as long as Hezbollah continues to usurp national decision-making powers through its illegal weapons.”