By Anthony Elghossain
Special to The Daily Star
WASHINGTON: One year after the Lebanese clashed with each other in an eruption of violence that cost the lives of some 200 individuals, the country tensely awaits parliamentary elections on June 7. One month from now, the Lebanese will take to the streets again. This time, however, the battle is for ballots. Unfolding in a playground open to the ambitions of regional and international powers alike, the Lebanese election is likely to impact American policy with respect to Syria and Iran.
To make clear the consequences of a Hizbullah victory, some State Department officials have stated that American aid to Lebanon hinges on the election results, although there are some murmurs that Lebanon will not be isolated like Gaza, regardless of the electoral outcome in June.
The struggle in Lebanon has been framed as part of a regional stand-off pitting the United States, Sunni Arab regimes, and Israel against Syria, Iran, and various non-state actors (including Hizbullah). Much is true in this view the region, but the Lebanon’s fate now lies elsewhere. For all the emphasis on democrats and despots, moderates and extremists, and Sunnis and Shiites, rival Lebanese Christian factions now hold the political cards in the Levant. Christians and Muslims receive equal representation in Lebanon’s Parliament, making Christians politically significant even after relative political decline. In Lebanon, internal unity is a prerequisite for effective communal politics: Shiites have coalesced around Hizbullah and Sunnis have united behind the Hariri family, but the Christians remain divided. An ideological rift over Lebanon’s orientation toward the West and the Middle East has combined with a barebones struggle for internal supremacy to severely hinder Christian cohesion in Lebanon.