By Mina Al-Oraibi
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Contributor

LONDON — Ever since the streets of Tunis and Cairo
were occupied with protesters five years ago, the Arab world has been
witnessing a turning of tides and overhaul of policies that seems sure
to dictate regional dynamics for decades. No country is more emblematic
of the pre-2011 status quo than Lebanon.
Since the endorsement of
the Taif Agreement of 1989 that ended its brutal civil war, Lebanon has
maintained a tricky power-sharing balance between political factions,
based largely on religious, sectarian divides and reaffirmed by
political dynasties. Importantly, this tricky balance was embedded in a
regional power structure. While Iran ramped up its support for the Islamist Shia Hezbollah and its allies, Saudi Arabia
became the primary backer of the Sunni political parties, primarily
that of the assassinated former Prime Minister Rafik Al Hariri, and
allies of various denominations. This balance was rooted in a Syrian
hegemony that has been eroded as its own civil war enters its sixth
year.
As Hezbollah’s armaments and leverage grew in size over the years,
Saudi Arabia saw itself invested in the Lebanese military as the
guarantor of the republic. However, this power play is today under great
strain, as Saudi-Iranian tensions spill onto the surface. In a dramatic
and unexpected move last month, Saudi Arabia announced it would halt
its support to the Lebanese military, suspending a $4 billion aid
package that included $3 billion to equip the Lebanese army with French weapons and equipment and another $1 extra billion for internal security.