Syrian President Bashar Assad is growing only more defiant as
negotiators prepare to descend on Geneva once again in an attempt
to broker the terms of a political transition and end the five-year
civil war. The opposition’s central demand heading into the negotiations is that
the embattled Assad relinquish his hold on power and cease bombing
rebel-held territory. On the contrary, the regime will hold parliamentary elections on Wednesday and is evidently preparing a major new offensive to retake Syria’s largest city, Aleppo, from opposition forces.
As such, it appears that Russia’s attempt last month to force Assad into a corner — by announcing a partial withdrawal
of advisers and warplanes — has backfired. Assad appears to have
realized that Russia’s reputation as a leader in the Middle East
depends, at least for now, on maintaining the status quo and keeping the
regime intact.