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by MARK MACKINNON theglobeandmail.com– Between Syria’s civil war and Tehran’s escalating standoff with Israel, Lebanon’s ‘Party of God’ has been busy lately. Now, analysts say, the Iranian-backed militia’s members are coming home. Mark MacKinnon investigates what they’re returning to, and why Young Hezbollah supporters attend a rally in the southern suburbs of Beirut with a poster of Imad Mughniyah, one of the main founders of Hezbollah in the 1980s. Lebanese voters head to the polls for a parliamentary election on May 6. Standing on a hill overlooking Lebanon’s border with Israel, Talal Saad is telling his brother, visiting from Germany, tales of the last war between Israel and the Hezbollah militia − and the destruction that was wrought in the south of this country. The border is quiet now, and has been for most of the intervening 12 years. But few things in the Middle East feel permanent these days, as the multisided war in Syria grinds on and the risk of a major clash between Israel and Hezbollah’s main backer, Iran, grows larger.
The seven-year-old conflict in Syria has grown into something like a mini-world war in recent months, further dragging regional and global players into the fray at an alarming pace. The United States and its allies Britain, France and Saudi Arabia stand on one side of the conflict, seeking to isolate and perhaps topple the regime of Bashar al-Assad, who is backed by Russia and Iran, both of which have forces on the ground to support Mr. al-Assad. There’s a separate, but related, conflict in the north of the country, pitting Turkey’s army against a Kurdish militia that it considers to be a “terrorist” group, while Turkey’s NATO allies the United States and France support the same Kurds in a fight that has pushed the Islamic State to the brink of defeat. But none of those dynamics is as flammable as the confrontation between Israel and Iran. And Tehran’s firmest ally in any fight with the Jewish state would be Hezbollah, the Shia militia − called “terrorist” by Canada and the United States − that is the dominant military and political force in Lebanon, a country with fading hopes of staying out of the fighting that surrounds it. Hezbollah is armed and funded by Iran, and for the past six years it has fought on the side of Mr. al-Assad’s forces, helping prevent the collapse of the regime. There are reports Hezbollah fighters have also been dispatched to help train pro-Iranian forces in Iraq and Yemen. Now, Lebanese analysts say, with the Syrian regime increasingly gaining control over the country, Hezbollah is starting to bring the bulk of its fighters home. The question hanging over Lebanon and the region is what Hezbollah intends to do with them next. In the valley below the road the two brothers paused on, Israel has begun erecting a concrete barrier between the Lebanese village of Kfar Kila and Metula, an Israeli town a shouting distance away. Eventually, the seven-metre-high wall is supposed to extend along the entire Israel-Lebanon frontier. Mr. Saad isn’t sure it will matter. “If there’s another war, it will happen whether this wall is here or not.” ‘I wouldn’t call it peaceful’
On Feb. 10, an Iranian drone that Israel says was armed with explosives was shot down over the Golan Heights, prompting an exchange of fire that saw Israeli fighter jets strike at the Syrian base the drone was launched from, while Syrian anti-aircraft defences shot down one of the attacking planes, which crashed just after it crossed back into Israeli airspace. On April 8, Israeli jets − this time operating from Lebanese airspace − struck again, attacking another Syrian airbase, known as T-4. Seven Iranians were among the dead. Israel, in a break with past practice, acknowledged it was behind the strike. “It was the first time we attacked live Iranian targets − both facilities and people,” an unnamed military source told The New York Times. Israel has signalled repeatedly that it will not allow Iran to continue building up its military infrastructure in Syria. The nightmare scenario for the Jewish state would be to see Iran take advantage of Syria’s civil war to replicate a Hezbollah-like force there, the same way it used the chaos of Lebanon’s wars in the 1980s to create the original. Assaf Orion, a retired Israeli brigadier-general, recently told The Globe and Mail that any effort to confront Iran in Syria would almost certainly involve Hezbollah and Lebanon as well. Iran has vowed vengeance for the strike on T-4. The country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Thursday the Islamic Republic was facing its enemies on “a large battlefield.” In words that will be taken as orders by the country’s military establishment, Ayatollah Khamenei added that “besides defending, we should have offensive plans against the enemy, too.”