by arabnews.com — BEIRUT: Anti-government protesters clashed with security forces as demonstrators on Monday took to the streets in force and again blocked roads throughout Lebanon. Last week’s resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri had prompted a lull in protests which have rocked the country since Oct. 17. But with no new Cabinet in place, crowds packed Beirut and other Lebanese towns and cities amid reports that Hariri had on Monday afternoon met in his residence with government Minister Gebran Bassil. It was the first meeting between them since Hariri quit but there was a media blackout on the discussions. Sources close to the former premier told Arab News: “Consultations are taking place away from the media because the situation is critical and the search for solutions is underway so that the country cannot collapse.”

The source added that there was unlikely to be any truth in social media claims that a process for forming a new government was coming together. The UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis, on Monday offered the international organization’s assistance to Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun “in the matters it wishes to achieve to face the current circumstances.” After a weekend of relative calm, protesters filled streets in Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli, Zahle and Jal El-Dib on Sunday night in response to supporters of Aoun and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) gathering around the presidential office. Jihad Nammour, an activist and coordinator of the Arab Master in Democracy and Human Rights (ARMA) program, told Arab News: “After seeing the people around the presidential palace and listening to Aoun and the head of the FPM, Bassil, it became clear that the powers had ignored the people’s movement. “Aoun and Bassil presented themselves as honest and trying to fight corruption. Aoun ignored the issue of scheduling parliamentary consultations, which enraged people and led them to renew their protests on a larger scale. The protests seem to be happening according to the people’s will,” he added.

BEIRUT (Reuters) – Lebanese protesters demanding the overthrow of their country’s elite poured back onto the streets on Sunday in the largest numbers since the government was toppled and hours after opposing supporters of President Michel Aoun staged a big rally. Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri resigned on Tuesday following unprecedented nationwide protests, deepening a political crisis and complicating efforts to enact badly needed economic reforms in Lebanon. On Sunday evening anti-government protesters flooded streets in Beirut and north and south of the capital, rejecting Aoun’s attempt to position himself as the guarantor of the protest movement and its anti-corruption drive. “All of them means all of them,” protesters chanted in central Beirut, a reference to the wholesale removal of an elite they accuse of pillaging the state and steering it into crisis.

Earlier in the day, thousands of Aoun supporters had attended a rally just outside Beirut, some waving his Free Patriotic Movement party’s orange flags, engulfing a main road leading to the presidential palace. It was the biggest counter punch to the broader wave of demonstrations that have gripped Lebanon since Oct. 17 and which have included Aoun’s removal among a set of sweeping demands. In a televised speech, Aoun, who must now hold consultations with members of parliament to designate a new premier, called for protesters to unify behind efforts to stamp out corruption, which he described as having become “nested” in the state. He said a three-point plan had been drawn up around tackling corruption, revitalizing the economy and building a civil state.

by cnbc.com — Cory Stieg — Bill Gates is passionate about reading and recommending books he finds particularly thought-provoking. During an Oct. 2 speech at his alma mater Lakeside School, the Seattle high school where he met Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, Gates pointed to two books he thinks are “pretty fundamental” to read for the people he hires to work at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Microsoft: “Factfulness by Hans Rosling and Steven Pinker’s “Better Angels of Our Nature.” Gates fans won’t be surprised that “Factfulness” is about “how life is getting better, and where the world still needs to improve,” according a Gates blog post from 2018, topics that are central to the work his foundation does — helping to improve the health and welfare of people in developing countries.

It’s one of Gates’ favorite books, and in 2018, he gave away a downloadable copy to anyone who graduated from college. “Although I think everyone should read it, it has especially useful insights for anyone who’s making the leap out of college and into the next phase of life,” Gates wrote on his blog, Gates Notes. Similarly, “The Better Angels of Our Nature” “offers a really fresh perspective on how to achieve positive outcomes in the world,” Gates wrote in another blog post. The 700-page book is about violence, which Gates says is important to understand in order to “build more peaceful societies.” “Steven Pinker shows us ways we can make those positive trajectories a little more likely,” Gates wrote. “That’s a contribution, not just to historical scholarship, but to the world.”

By Julia Horowitz, CNN Business — Saudi Arabia is moving forward with an initial public offering of its huge state oil producer that could shatter records and give investors the chance to own a piece of the world’s most profitable company. Following approval from the country’s regulators, Saudi Aramco on Sunday formally announced its intention […]

by cnbc.com Jeff Cox— President Donald Trump looks likely to cruise to reelection next year under three different economic models Moody’s Analytics employed to gauge the 2020 race. Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count. Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.

The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once. “If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper along with Dan White, the firm’s director of government counsulting and fiscal policy research, and Bernard Yaros, an assistant director and economist. “It’s about turnout.”

Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, assuming average turnout. His chances decrease with maximum turnout on the Democratic side and increase with minimum turnout expected. Of the three models, he does best under the “pocketbook” measure of how people feel about their finances. In that scenario, assuming average nonincumbent turnout, he gets 351 electoral votes to the generic Democrat’s 187. “Record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory,” the report said.

(MENAFN – Gulf Times) Lebanese banks have curtailed the transfer of dollar deposits abroad until political turbulence that has engulfed the country and raised fears of a collapse in its currency peg subsides. Lebanon has not imposed official restrictions on the movement of money as lenders reopen their doors after two weeks of nationwide anti-government protests. But banks have independently moved to tighten informal limits already in place for months to avoid capital flight amid crumbling confidence. Tellers working in four of Lebanon’s major banks said transfers of deposits abroad had been stopped until further notice, regardless of the amount and destination. Some said they were making exceptions for clients who could prove they needed to pay for university fees, loans or healthcare abroad, for instance. The restrictions were confirmed by at least two senior bank officials, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue. Banks have fielded calls from high net worth depositors asking to move their money abroad, but both bankers said big clients had been broadly understanding when told to wait until the political uncertainty eases. ‘It’s gone better than expected, one of the senior bankers added.

Capital controls are becoming the weapon of choice for embattled governments in need of breathing room, with Argentina tightening its restrictions after a left-leaning populist won the presidential elections. Though Lebanon’s restrictions are informal and temporary, some economists have warned they could discourage inflows from diaspora investors, the country’s financial lifeline. But Lebanon, one of the world’s most indebted nations, has few viable alternatives. Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have been on the streets for two weeks, demanding the resignation of a political class they say has pillaged state coffers to the verge of bankruptcy whilst leaving the public with failing services. The protests prompted the resignation this week of Prime Minister Saad Hariri. A replacement has yet to be named, raising concerns the country will be unable to implement measures needed to avert economic crisis.

by nbcnews.com — Saphora Smith  — They came dressed in black and wielding sticks. Images emerged on social media of men widely believed to be supporters of powerful Lebanese militant group Hezbollah tearing through a camp of anti-government protesters in Beirut on Oct. 29, smashing chairs and setting fire to tents. Meanwhile, the anti-corruption protesters regularly can be heard chanting slogans against Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the Iran-backed militia and political party’s leader.

The tensions between Hezbollah and the largely leaderless anti-corruption protests sweeping Lebanon are a sign of the great unease that Iran and its proxies across the region are feeling at the upsurge of anti-government demonstrations. After all, Tehran has worked for years to deepen its influence in these countries — and it’s precisely this domestic order that the demonstrators are looking to shake up, according to Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank in London. “The protests pose a threat to Iranian interests in Lebanon and Iraq because they are national in character and therefore challenge the current political order, which is shored up by groups supported and underpinned by Iran,” he said.

Iran has a lot to lose if its allies such as the politically powerful Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi’s government and Iraq’s Shiite militias are shunted from power or see their influence diminish. In Iraq, after U.S. forces overthrew Saddam Hussein in 2003, Shiite allies replaced the Baathist regime. And these are the people in power today and are currently the object of the protesters’ ire. Iran also supports Shiite armed groups in the oil-rich country, who are accused by protesters of building economic empires while many Iraqis struggle in poverty.

nytimes.com — By Edward Wong, Vivian Yee and Michael Crowley — The indefinite hold halts a $105 million package that the State Department and Congress had approved. Analysts say the winners could be Iran, Russia, the Islamic State and Al Qaeda. WASHINGTON — The Trump administration has frozen all military aid to the Lebanese army, including a package worth $105 million that both the State Department and Congress approved in September, congressional officials said Friday. The halt to American funding of the Lebanese Armed Forces, an important multisectarian group, comes at a critical time for Lebanon, as officials are grappling with the country’s largest street protests since its independence in 1943 and a change in leadership forced by the demonstrations. A freeze on the assistance could give Iran and Russia an opening to exert greater influence over the Lebanese military, analysts say, and perhaps even allow the Islamic State and Al Qaeda to gain greater footholds in the country.

The delivery of military aid, especially in cases that involve White House intervention, has become a delicate and divisive issue in Washington. Congressional committees are overseeing an impeachment inquiry into whether President Trump held up $391 million in military aid to Ukraine in an effort to coerce Ukrainian leaders to do political favors for him. Though the president has denied it, senior administration officials have testified that there was indeed a quid pro quo, and the top American diplomat in Ukraine said he sent a cable telling Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that it was “folly” to withhold the aid. The Pentagon and State Department pressed for the aid for the Lebanese Armed Forces, congressional aides said, and officials in both departments say the military organization is an important bulwark against extremist elements and armed factions of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite group that has political and military wings.

But officials on the national security staff at the White House recently asked the Office of Management and Budget to freeze all aid to the Lebanese military, two congressional officials said Friday. Officials at the State Department and Pentagon only learned of the halt in recent days. It is unclear if anyone has told the Lebanese government of the freeze. The State Department referred questions about the freeze to the budget office, which did not have immediate comment, and the Defense Department referred questions to the White House, where officials declined to comment.

theatlantic.com – Fadlo R. Khuri — Ten or even 20 years ago, the protests unfolding in Lebanon would have led news bulletins around the world—what is more compelling than large portions of the population of this small, schismatic, but strategic state united in optimism, standing together peacefully to overthrow decades of a dead-handed, morally bankrupt, sectarian kleptocracy? In a matter of days, the exasperated Lebanese protesters, waving the cedar flag that once symbolized our divisions, have declared an end to the Taif Agreement that enshrined confessional rule in 1989. The Lebanese Civil War finally ended on October 17, 2019. The sectarian mind-set did not disappear in the plumes of black smoke from burning tires. But if the populace has turned away from a national accord that reinforced sectarian divisions, its instigators and beneficiaries—the nation’s cynical, venal, and in some cases irredeemable political leaders—continue to assert their own personal interests, with varying degrees of skill and guile. There are few, if any, heroes or citizen leaders among these gray men. After all, they all know in their hearts that the destiny of the hero is martyrdom.

And there are certainly no willing martyrs among Lebanon’s political and military leaders. No George Washingtons, Abraham Lincolns, Charles De Gaulles, George Marshalls, Nelson Mandelas, or Mahatma Gandhis. Nor is there even a Fuad Chehab, a Rachid Karami, or a Kamal Jumblatt, to name three of Lebanon’s more far-sighted leaders of the past 70 years, two of them martyrs in a real sense. No, this is the era for gray, ambitious, vindictive men who have long paraded their faults on the Lebanese political stage, in the same manner as other populist leaders around the world, including those now occupying some of the globe’s most powerful political positions. As the president of the American University of Beirut, I have watched these protests unfold with a mixture of hope and trepidation. The protesters in Beirut, in Tripoli, in Tyre, in Sidon, in Nabatiya—who include a large proportion of our own students, faculty, and staff—must stay united to overcome the poisonous example set by Lebanon’s political leaders. Now in the second week of the protests, ambition and ego are starting to surface in an unfortunate but not unexpected way. Lebanon’s political and security leaders would like to have their battles fought for them by others. They all want someone else to eliminate their competition, allowing them to claim neutrality and good intentions. That is why we need to help steer our students, faculty, and staff away from such traps.