سجعان قزي

@AzziSejean

قد تكونُ المفاوضاتُ حولَ الثروةِ النَفطيّةِ والغازيّةِ بين لبنان وإسرائيل نَجحت وانتَهت قبلَ أن تبدأَ ما دام لبنانُ تخلّى عن اعتمادِ الخطِّ 29 وعن المطالبةِ بحِصّةٍ في حقلِ “كاريش”. والتوقيعُ على الاتفاقِ صار مسألةَ وقتٍ تُحدّدُه ملابساتُ الاستحقاقاتِ الحكوميّةِ والرئاسيّةِ في لبنان والتطوّراتُ الإقليميّةُ والدوليّةُ المتدافِعة.

وقد تكون الحربُ أيضًا بين إسرائيل وحزبِ الله وَقعَت وانتهَت. ولائحةُ رئيسِ أركانِ الجيشِ الإسرائيليِّ أڤيڤ كوخاڤي (12 حزيران) التي عدّدَ فيها الدمارَ المنتظَر أن يَلحَقَ بلبنان، هي بَيانُ ختامِ الحربِ لا بَيانَ إعلانِها. وهكذا كان خِطابُ التهديدِ الذي شَهرَه السيّد حسن نصرالله في وَجهِ إسرائيل (09 حزيران). بالتالي، يكون نصرالله وكوخاڤي على “عِلمٍ مُسبَقٍ” بالأهوالِ التي ستَنتُجُ عن حربٍ بالغَلَط اليومَ أو عن حربٍ مقرَّرةٍ لاحقًا.

الإشكاليّةُ أنَّ اندلاعَ العنفِ في الجَنوبِ ليس قرارًا لبنانيًّا وإسرائيليًّا فقط، بل تُشاركنا فيه إيران التي تَستخدمُ لبنانَ ورقةَ ضغطٍ في مفاوضاتِها وصِراعاتها مع أميركا وإسرائيل. لذلك يَقتضي الحذَرُ حيالَ المفاوضاتِ والحربِ، عِلمًا أنَّ الدولَ المعنيّةَ بالحربِ في لبنان والمِنطقة (إسرائيل وإيران وأميركا) لا تريدُ الحربَ، فيما الدولُ التي لا تُحاربُ تريدُها.

إنَّ امتناعَ حزبِ الله عن القيامِ بعملٍ عسكريٍّ، لن يوقِفَ، بالضرورةِ، إسرائيلَ عن استخراجِ الغازِ من حقلِ “كاريش”، إنّما يُعفيها من القيامِ بعملٍ عسكريٍّ لضمانِ استخراجِه. بينما قد يَرتَــئي حزبُ الله القيامَ بذلك في حالِ اعتَبر نفسَه، لا الدولةَ اللبنانيّةَ، مرجِعيّةَ القرارِ في ترسيمِ الخطوطِ والحدود، في حالِ واصلت إسرائيلُ استخراجَ الغاز من “كاريش” قبل انتهاءِ المفاوضاتِ الإسرائيليّةِ/اللبنانيّةِ برعايةِ الولاياتِ المتّحدَةِ الأميركيّة. إنَّ واشنطن عاجزةٌ عن إقناعِ إسرائيل بتجميدِ عمليّةِ الاستخراجِ إلى حين تنتهي المفاوضات، لكنّها قادرةٌ على إقناعِها بأن تقومَ السفينةُ “إنرجين باور” بعملِها وهي راسيةٌ جنوبيَّ الخطِّ 29 (نظريّةُ الشَفْط). هذا يعني عمليًّا أن حقلَ “كاريش” صار حُكمًا خارجَ إطارِ المفاوضات وتَـمّ التسليمُ به لإسرائيل.

بعيدًا عن شعارِ “وِحدة الموقِفِ اللبنانيّ”، التنازلاتُ التي قدّمَتها الدولةُ اللبنانيّةُ ـــ بتسهيلِ الثنائيِّ الشيعيِّ وعينَيه الساهرتَين ـــ متقدِّمةٌ، لكنّها غيرُ كافيةٍ لانتزاعِ موافقةِ إسرائيل عليها ولاستئنافِ الاجتماعاتِ اللبنانيّةِ/الإسرائيليّةِ في الناقورة التي توقَّفَت في الرابعِ من أيّار 2021. والخَشيةُ أن تناورَ إسرائيل فتُميِّزَ بين الطرحِ الإطارِ الذي أبلَغه رئيسُ الجُمهوريّةِ ميشال عون قبلَ يومين إلى الموفَدِ الأميركيّ، والاتّفاقِ الإطارِ الذي عرضَه رئيسُ مجلس النواب نبيه برّي باسم لبنان سنةَ 2020، خصوصًا أنَّ بِرّي أعاد التذكيرَ به أمام هوكشتاين واعتبرَه المرجعيّةَ الفُضلى.

by arabnews.com — Najia Houssari — BEIRUT: Lebanon’s economic collapse means that the Lebanese people are now responsible for sourcing their own electricity for most of the day, every day. Many of them are now turning to solar power — previously seen as a luxury — as a solution. Lebanese citizens do, at least, have some experience with securing their own power: For the past 40 years, the country’s patchy electricity supply has meant that 24-hour power was almost impossible to come by, so the majority of Lebanese are familiar with having to use private generators to access electricity during the country’s frequent power cuts. Plans on which billions of dollars were spent were largely ruined by political disputes and, despite the warnings of the international community, the Ministry of Energy took no action to rectify the situation. According to Bassam Mawlawi, minister of interior in Lebanon’s caretaker government, the ministry had to pay $160,000 to secure electricity for the parliamentary elections that took place last month.

Lebanon has been regularly plunged into darkness recently because of skyrocketing fuel prices resulting from the increase in the dollar exchange rate. The situation was exacerbated when the Lebanese state began to remove fuel subsidies and international fuel prices rose because of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Along with an increase in network failures, infrastructure theft has only made things worse. Considering Lebanon’s long history of power outages, it is perhaps surprising that many Lebanese are only now beginning to view solar power as an ideal solution to their energy issues. Travel around Beirut, the surrounding mountains and the Bekaa valley, and you will now see solar panels on many rooftops and balconies — even though the internal security forces have repeatedly warned against setting up solar panels without an agreement between building residents, in an attempt to limit disputes. But since solar energy allows people to be self-sufficient and spares them the costs of private generators — the fees for which can be prohibitively expensive since there is no real oversight of the industry — those warnings are falling on deaf ears.

Beirut – Caroline Akoum  — aawsat.com — Less than a week before the binding parliamentary consultations to nominate a prime minister, caretaker Premier Najib Mikati remains the most favorable candidate, while the opposition parliamentary blocs are trying to agree on another figure. President Michel Aoun has announced that the consultations would be held on Thursday at the Baabda Palace, amid criticism that the delay in setting the date was due to attempts to tailor the government before the appointment of a new premier. However, sources close to the Lebanese presidency denied the claims, telling Asharq Al-Awsat: “The reason for giving an extra week to set the date for consultations is the lack of clarity in the positions of the parliamentary blocs… Therefore, the time interval between [Aoun’s] invitation and the date of consultations is to allow the blocs to consult and study the matter…”

Meanwhile, sources in the Lebanese Forces noted that contacts were underway between all parliamentary opposition blocs to adopt a single candidate for the premiership. In this regard, sources familiar with the position of the Progressive Socialist Party told Asharq Al-Awsat that if the opposition succeeded in agreeing on the name of one candidate, the deputies of the Democratic Gathering Bloc would support them. “But if they fail to do so, the bloc may nominate Mikati,” they said.

by middleeastmonitor.com — A special UN-backed court has found two members of the Hezbollah militant organisation guilty for the killing of former Lebanese Prime Minister, Rafic Hariri in 2005, sentencing them to life imprisonment in absentia, after 13 years of investigations into the matter. In the Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s (STL) hearing today, its head […]

by Najia Houssari — arabnews.com — BEIRUT: Lebanese President Michel Aoun will hold binding consultations with members of the country’s recently elected parliament to name a new prime minister on June 23. Caretaker PM Najib Mikati is widely seen as the front-runner for the post. Once named, the new prime minister must form a government, a process that often takes several months. However, the incoming government will last for only four months, as its term will end with the completion of the presidential term in October. After Saad Hariri, leader of the Future Movement, declared the suspension of his political career and that of his party, political groups began looking for a Sunni figure who could be nominated to head the new government.

By convention, the prime minister of Lebanon is a Sunni Muslim. Independent Sunni MP Abdul Rahman Al-Bizri told Arab News that the nomination of a new premier is still underway and talks are taking place between various groups “to reach a formula that is relieving for Lebanon.” He said: “We are living through tough times and the traditional political forces tend to renominate the caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati.” A political observer said that this week might witness political deals to form the government due to “the weakness of the Sunnis in the political equation.”

A meeting on Wednesday between the Grand Mufti of Lebanon Abdullatif Darian and Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari assumed special significance as it coincided with the launch of the process to nominate the new premier. Bukhari highlighted “the important role of the grand mufti in strengthening the unity of the Lebanese and Islamic stance, especially during the hard times Lebanon is passing through.” He said that Saudi Arabia hopes to see the “unity of the people of Lebanon in front of the challenges that it is facing,” and praised the efforts of the mufti to guarantee national unity and ensure civil peace in the country.

By Shivan Sarna with AP — Lebanon is anticipating hundreds of thousands of ex-pats and tourists to visit the country this summer. Their imminent arrival will bring a much-needed cash injection to a country previously tormented by an economic and financial crisis. The Mediterranean nation, known for its vibrant nightlife, beaches, mountain resorts, and cuisine, is preparing for anywhere between 10,000 to 12,000 travellers a day, according to Lebanese Minister of Tourism Walid Nassar. He adds that hotels and many guest houses are fully booked for the next three months. The country has a large diaspora who are expected to visit family this summer – despite chronic electricity cuts and political and financial instability.

Many Lebanese people have left in the past couple years after the economic crisis started. The crisis was exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic and a massive blast at Beirut’s port in August 2020. Arabian Travel Market aims to attract European tourists to the Middle East Trek in the desert and float on the Dead Sea: Why you should visit Jordan in 2022 How are businesses preparing for the influx of travellers? Business owners are hoping to boost their hard-hit fortunes. “We believe that this year will be among the best years for the country. All of us in this sector are making big investments and we believe in the security and stability levels, and we believe that everyone will come to the country,” says Claude Taber, the owner of Rocca Marina Beach. “Everyone is coming to Lebanon because there is nothing nicer than Lebanon’s nature. Everyone knows this.”

by english.alaraby.co.uk — Lebanese President Michel Aoun will hold binding consultations with members of the recently-elected parliament to name a new prime minister on Thursday June 23, an official source told Reuters. Once named, the new prime minister must form a government, a process that often takes many months. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati is […]

by AP — BEIRUT: Lebanon’s caretaker energy minister on Wednesday extended the licensing deadline for oil and gas companies to explore in the country’s territorial waters until mid-December, to give more firms the chance to bid, state-run news agency reported. The decision by the minister, Walid Fayad, to extend the deadline of the second round of licensing until Dec. 15 followed a request by the Lebanese Petroleum Administration, the National News Agency said.

In 2017, Lebanon approved licenses for an international consortium by France’s Total, Italy’s ENI and Russia’s Novatek to move forward with offshore oil and gas development for two of 10 blocks in the Mediterranean Sea, including one that is disputed in part with neighboring Israel. The companies did not find viable amounts of oil and gas in block number 4 north of Beirut, and drilling in block number 9 in the south has been repeatedly postponed because of the maritime border dispute with Israel.

by arabnews.com — MOHAMMED ABU ZAID — Saudi Arabia announced it would deposit $5bn with the Central Bank of Egypt to support Cairo’s foreign exchange reserves, after the economy was affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine The value of the Egyptian pound has fallen since the outbreak of the war by more than 20 percent, with the country also heavily reliant on grain exports from Ukraine

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has praised Saudi Arabia and the UAE for their financial assistance in response to the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Speaking to the media at the inauguration of a series of dairy production facilities and slaughterhouses in Sadat City, in response to a question about the support provided by the Kingdom and the UAE, the president said that the two Gulf states “moved together” without a request from Cairo. In March, Saudi Arabia announced it would deposit $5 billion with the Central Bank of Egypt to contribute to supporting Cairo’s foreign exchange reserves, after the Egyptian economy was affected by the Russian invasion.

by AFP — BEIRUT: Lebanon Tuesday made a new offer to a visiting US mediator over a maritime border deal with Israel, holding back on demands for territory where Israel plans to imminently extract gas, an official said. Beirut’s proposal however included a claim for all of a separate field that it had initially only sought part of, the official close to the negotiations said. The new offer was made during meetings between Lebanon’s top leaders and US envoy Amos Hochstein, who landed in Beirut on Monday to relaunch indirect negotiations between Lebanon and Israel after a year-long pause. Lebanese authorities last week had requested Hochstein visit after a gas production vessel arrived in Israel to launch extraction operations in the Karish offshore field, drawing condemnation from Lebanon, which had laid claim to parts of it.

But in meetings Tuesday with Hochstein, Lebanon’s top leaders pushed for the country’s maritime border to exclude Karish and include the whole of the nearby Qana field instead, the official close to the negotiations told AFP. “We want the entire Qana field,” the official said on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the issue. Lebanon had initially demanded 860 square kilometers (330 square miles) of territory in the disputed maritime area, including part of Qana. It then asked for an additional 1,430 square kilometers, also taking in part of Karish.