by ED GRAHAM — investors.com — When OpenAI launched the generative AI chatbot ChatGPT for public use on Nov. 30, the S&P 500 was worth $5 trillion less than now, tech spending was deep in a post-pandemic hangover, and the economy appeared headed for recession or persistent high inflation. That single day provided just an inkling of generative AI’s potential for transformative impact. The S&P 500 shot up more than 3% as tech stocks with artificial intelligence products rumbled. OpenAI investor Microsoft (MSFT) leapt 6%, and AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) climbed 8%. Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) also jumped 6% that day, and Meta Platforms (META) ran up nearly 8%. Now the tech hangover is giving way to a new “gold rush,” Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives argues. Ives thinks ChatGPT opened the door to another $1 trillion in artificial intelligence-related spending over the coming decade that wasn’t on Wall Street’s radar.
And the economic impact could prove even more far-reaching. Some analysts are even talking about a new Roaring ’20s fueled by AI. Experts say generative AI could launch a surge in productivity after a 17-year slump. A productivity pickup couldn’t come at a better time, as a worker shortage, an aging population and deglobalization fan inflationary pressures. “We are in desperate need of a new source of growth,” Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a June 14 report. “Despite near-term pessimism, we remain enthusiastic about AI’s potential to change the nature of our economies,” they wrote, calling it “an immense source of optimism” as the decade progresses. The consensus is that generative AI will change the world. But productivity growth has sputtered through recent waves of new technology, including the Apple (AAPL) iPhone, cloud computing and robotics. Why should this time be different? And what might stand in the way of a productivity boom and S&P 500 bull run?