Story by Katyanna Quach – the register — • It’s not all bad news. Poets are safe. And machines will take some jobs no human wants Generative AI will replace 2.4 million US jobs by 2030, and influence another eleven million, but other forms of automation will cost more jobs, according to a report from analyst firm Forrester.… The firm’s 2023 Generative AI Jobs Impact Forecast [PDF] predicts that the tech will reshape more jobs than it replaces, but also includes a section titled “Let’s Be Clear: Generative AI Is Coming After White Collar Jobs”. White collar workers most at risk of being left behind will be technical writers, social science research assistants, proofreaders, copywriters, and those in administrative positions. The biggest disruptions will be felt by workers that have college degrees, perform white-collar jobs, and are middle class. People with annual salaries less than $60,000, for example, will be impacted less by generative AI than those that earn $90,000 or more. Here’s a chart below showing how much different types of jobs can expect to be influenced by technology: Such workers have a couple of years in which to prepare, Forrester’s analysts suggest, because its modelling assumes it will take time for “questions on intellectual property rights, copyright, plagiarism, model refresh rates, model bias, ethics, and model response reliability” to be resolved.
The report also predicts that while generative AI will cost jobs, other forms of automation will have a greater impact. In 2023, the report predicts, generative AI will cause 9.3 percent of jobs lost to automation, rising to 30.4 percent by 2030. Not every job replaced by automation is a job lost to humans, the report asserts, because humans don’t want certain jobs. “In some cases, automation will stand in for jobs that have been hard to fill,” the report states. “For instance, physical robotics and automation are only beginning to fill the workforce gaps that have plagued frontline work in the 2020s.” But other jobs will impact humans and Forrester’s analysts warn of “deep social challenges like those faced in the post-industrial Rust Belt.”