Khazen

These six questions will dictate the future of generative AI

by MIT Technology Review by Will Douglas Heaven — It was a stranger who first brought home for me how big this year’s vibe shift was going to be. As we waited for a stuck elevator together in March, she told me she had just used ChatGPT to help her write a report for her marketing job. She hated writing reports because she didn’t think she was very good at it. But this time her manager had praised her. Did it feel like cheating? Hell no, she said. You do what you can to keep up. That stranger’s experience of generative AI is one among millions. People in the street (and in elevators) are now figuring out what this radical new technology is for and wondering what it can do for them. In many ways the buzz around generative AI right now recalls the early days of the internet: there’s a sense of excitement and expectancy—and a feeling that we’re making it up as we go.

That is to say, we’re in the dot-com boom, circa 2000. Many companies will go bust. It may take years before we see this era’s Facebook (now Meta), Twitter (now X), or TikTok emerge. “People are reluctant to imagine what could be the future in 10 years, because no one wants to look foolish,” says Alison Smith, head of generative AI at Booz Allen Hamilton, a technology consulting firm. “But I think it’s going to be something wildly beyond our expectations.” “Here’s the catch: it is impossible to know all the ways a technology will be misused until it is used.” The internet changed everything—how we work and play, how we spend time with friends and family, how we learn, how we consume, how we fall in love, and so much more. But it also brought us cyber-­bullying, revenge porn, and troll factories. It facilitated genocide, fueled mental-health crises, and made surveillance capitalism—with its addictive algorithms and predatory advertising—the dominant market force of our time. These downsides became clear only when people started using it in vast numbers and killer apps like social media arrived.

Generative AI is likely to be the same. With the infrastructure in place—the base generative models from OpenAI, Google, Meta, and a handful of others—people other than the ones who built it will start using and misusing it in ways its makers never dreamed of. “We’re not going to fully understand the potential and the risks without having individual users really play around with it,” says Smith. Generative AI was trained on the internet and so has inherited many of its unsolved issues, including those related to bias, misinformation, copyright infringement, human rights abuses, and all-round economic upheaval. But we’re not going in blind. Here are six unresolved questions to bear in mind as we watch the generative-AI revolution unfold. This time around, we have a chance to do better.

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2024-2025 Startup Predictions for Investors and VCs

My opinions are my own. By Malek el Khazen

Looking ahead to 2024-2025, the business landscape is filled with potential. In this article, I’ve compiled a list of potential new startups that may be poised to become major players. These predictions are based on current trends, innovations, and market movements.

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Now we know what OpenAI’s superalignment team has been up to Control method for superintelligent AI

MIT Technology Review by Will Douglas Heaven — OpenAI has announced the first results from its superalignment team, the firm’s in-house initiative dedicated to preventing a superintelligence—a hypothetical future computer that can outsmart humans—from going rogue. Unlike many of the company’s announcements, this heralds no big breakthrough. In a low-key research paper, the team describes a technique that lets a less powerful large language model supervise a more powerful one—and suggests that this might be a small step toward figuring out how humans might supervise superhuman machines. Less than a month after OpenAI was rocked by a crisis when its CEO, Sam Altman, was fired by its oversight board (in an apparent coup led by chief scientist Ilya Sutskever) and then reinstated three days later, the message is clear: it’s back to business as usual. Yet OpenAI’s business is not usual. Many researchers still question whether machines will ever match human intelligence, let alone outmatch it. OpenAI’s team takes machines’ eventual superiority as given. “AI progress in the last few years has been just extraordinarily rapid,” says Leopold Aschenbrenner, a researcher on the superalignment team. “We’ve been crushing all the benchmarks, and that progress is continuing unabated.”

For Aschenbrenner and others at the company, models with human-like abilities are just around the corner. “But it won’t stop there,” he says. “We’re going to have superhuman models, models that are much smarter than us. And that presents fundamental new technical challenges.” In July, Sutskever and fellow OpenAI scientist Jan Leike set up the superalignment team to address those challenges. “I’m doing it for my own self-interest,” Sutskever told MIT Technology Review in September. “It’s obviously important that any superintelligence anyone builds does not go rogue. Obviously.” Amid speculation that Altman was fired for playing fast and loose with his company’s approach to AI safety, Sutskever’s superalignment team loomed behind the headlines. Many have been waiting to see exactly what it has been up to.

Dos and don’ts

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The Week’s 10 Biggest Funding Rounds: Another Big Week For Biotech As Tome Raises $213M

by Crunchbase News by Chris Metinko 

1. Tome Biosciences, $213M, biotech: A big biotech raise hit high on the list this week. Watertown, Massachusetts-based Tome Biosciences emerged from stealth with a $213 million combination Series A and B funding from investors that include the likes of Andreessen Horowitz Bio + Health and Arch Venture Partners. The startup’s “molecular surgery” technology, based on research licensed from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is designed to allow the insertion of varying sizes of genetic material in the genome without damaging DNA. The company plans to use the tech to develop gene therapies for monogenic liver diseases and cell therapies for autoimmune diseases.

2. Bicara Therapeutics, $165M, biotech: If Bicara Therapeutics looks familiar, it’s because this isn’t its first time on this list. Boston-based Bicara Therapeutics raised a $108 million Series B co-led by Red Tree Venture Capital and RA Capital Management in March. This week, it is back with a $165 million Series C co-led by Braidwell and TPG — which is investing through its TPG Life Sciences Innovations, and The Rise Fund. The company is developing biologics to fight tumors and is already in clinical trials for a head and neck cancer treatment. Founded in 2020, the company has raised $313 million, per Crunchbase.

3. True Anomaly, $100M, space: Centennial, Colorado-based True Anomaly, which develops hardware and software systems to help space security and readiness, raised $100 million in a round led by Riot Ventures this week. The company’s valuation was not disclosed, but Bloomberg reported it was not $1 billion. The startup helps the government and commercial customers keep an eye on threats to assets they have in space, such as satellites. The company’s Jackal autonomous orbital vehicles, which can detect objects in space, are slated to launch aboard SpaceX‘s Transporter-10 mission next year. Founded in 2022, the company has raised $158 million to date.

4. Totus Medicines, $66M, biotech: As one can tell, biotech really went big this week. Our third such startup already on the list, Emeryville, California-based Totus Medicines, closed a $66 million Series B financing led by DCVC Bio. The firm specializes in small molecule drug discovery and development using covalent libraries and AI tools. Founded in 2020, the company has raised $106 million, per Crunchbase.

5. Essential AI, $57M, artificial intelligence: Essential AI’s round this week is a good example of what many AI startups did all this year — raise big money from corporates. The San Francisco-based startup announced it had $56.5 million in new funding led by March Capital, but other investors also were a who’s who of AI big tech — Advanced Micro Devices, Google, Nvidia and others. The interest seems warranted, as the company is attempting to use AI to automate monotonous corporate tasks — which could be a big market. The company is calling its technology the “Enterprise Brain.” Founded this year, the company already has raised more than $100 million, per Crunchbase data.

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Sustainability, AI among key Mideast travel trends: report

By arabnews.com — Travelers from the UAE and Saudi Arabia plan to increase their spending on breaks and holidays over the next three years and will have more of an eye on sustainability than ever before. In fact, most now check the sustainability of their travel plans, and are prepared to pay over 20 percent more for environmentally-friendly accommodation. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence will become a key tool for holiday planning — with half of people in both the UAE (52 percent) and the Kingdom (50 percent) already using it for this purpose. Moreover, “dupe” destinations — that are similar to traditional holiday destinations but closer and cheaper — will be another key theme.

In addition, “slow holidays” — where travelers take their time, connect with the local culture, disconnect from technology and minimize their impact on the environment — will be another significant trend. These are the key outtakes from the Middle East findings of Marriott Bonvoy’s 2024 Future Travel Trends research, in collaboration with foresight agency The Future Laboratory, which analyzed the travel plans of 14,000 travelers across Europe and the Middle East over the next three years. Neal Jones, chief sales and marketing officer, Marriott International — Europe, Middle East and Africa, said: “Two trends we have seen coming to the fore in particular from the consumer research are sustainability and AI — particularly among younger travelers under the age of 45. Being ecologically responsible is moving from being a ‘nice-to-have’ to a ‘must-have’ for many of these travelers and will only become more so.”

The rise of AI

The era of AI holiday planning is very much here — half or more (52 percent from the UAE and 50 percent from the Kingdom) have used AI to help them plan or research a holiday. Meanwhile, 77 percent in both countries say they are likely to use it in the future, showing the trend is set to grow further still. Amongst those who did use AI, 95 percent in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia say it influenced their holiday decision in some way. This includes booking the accommodation it recommended, booking the activities it recommended, and booking food it recommended.

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Saudi Arabia nears nuclear operations IAEA Director

By  Dr. Mansour Al-Maswari Mansour Al-Maswar — albawaba – ALBAWABA- In a significant development, the Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that Saudi Arabia is on the verge of commencing nuclear operations, beginning with a research reactor. This comes as Saudi Arabia has openly expressed its intention to acquire nuclear power, with potential aspirations for a nuclear bomb, particularly in response to Iran’s capabilities. The revelation raises concerns about the broader implications for regional dynamics, especially in the context of a reported defensive agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia. The news also surfaces amid discussions about the potential normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

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US willing to compromise with Nvidia over AI chip sales to China

by Tobias Mann – the register — The Biden administration has taken a special interest in Nvidia’s sale of accelerators to China and is now working with the chipmaker to establish which chips the Middle Kingdom is permitted to acquire. In an interview with Reuters, commerce secretary Gina Raimondo emphasized that Nvidia could and should sell GPUs in China, as most AI applications using them would be commercial in nature. “What we cannot allow them to ship is the most sophisticated, highest processing power AI chips, which would enable China to train their frontier models,” she told the newswire. She added that that, based on talks with CEO Jensen Huang, it’s “crystal clear” Nvidia wants to play by the rules. The accelerator champ confirmed that it is talking to the Commerce Department regarding export restrictions. “We are working with the US government and, following the government’s clear rules, are working to offer compliant datacenter solutions to customers worldwide,” an Nvidia spokesperson told The Register.

The US government has grown increasingly concerned about the potential use of AI models in military applications. In October, the Biden administration introduced tougher performance limits on GPUs and AI accelerators sold to the Middle Kingdom. Those rules meant that even Nvidia’s A800 and H800 GPUs, which were developed specifically to comply with the previous round of restrictions from 2022, were no longer allowed to reach China. Nvidia, which is by far the largest supplier of accelerators used in AI applications, was among the hardest hit by the administration’s October 2023 changes. Shortly after the rules were made public, it published an SEC filing warning investors that a large portion of its datacenter lineup was likely to exceed the new performance caps. Nvidia’s China-market H20 chips hit another speed bump AMD says it’ll jump through Uncle Sam’s hoops to sell AI chips to China Biden has brought the ban hammer down on US export of AI chips to China Dell APJ chief: Industry won’t wait for Nvidia H100 The rules hadn’t even gone into effect when Nvidia was preemptively ordered by the government to cease all remaining shipments of affected GPUs.

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Joe Biden’s Chances of Beating Trump, Haley or DeSantis, According to Polls

By newsweek — Jason Lemon — Although President Joe Biden continues to be the clear Democratic frontrunner for his party’s 2024 nomination, he remains unpopular with the American public and looks poorly positioned to defeat any of the top Republican candidates, according to multiple recent polls. Biden, who would be 82 at his potential second inauguration, has been plagued by concerns about his age, as he is already the oldest president in U.S. history. Additionally, polling consistently shows that he gets low marks from voters for his handling of the U.S. economy as well as for his response to the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border. The current polling average by news and polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight, which was last updated on Saturday, shows just over 55 percent of Americans view Biden unfavorably, while a little under 40 percent view him favorably.

Do you think there is any Democrat who could defeat The president’s supporters defend him by pointing to Democrats’ success in the 2022 midterm elections as well as recent off year elections, when voters across the country appeared particularly animated by concerns about Republican opposition to abortion rights. They also say that when ultimately given a choice between Biden or former President Donald Trump, the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, voters will see the current president as the better option.

Here’s a closer look at what the recent polls show.

Trump vs. Biden

Most recent polls show Trump ahead of Biden, or essentially tied. A survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal from November 29 to December 4 shows Trump ahead of Biden by 4 percent in a head-to-head matchup. The former president is supported by 47 percent of respondents, compared to 43 percent who back Biden. The poll included 1,500 registered voters and has margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Emerson College carried out a poll from December 4 to 6, which also showed Trump leading Biden by 4 percent. The percentages were the same as The Wall Street Journal survey, with 47 percent going for Trump and 43 percent supporting Biden. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points, and 1,000 registered voters were surveyed. The best recent poll for Biden against Trump was conducted by YouGov/The Economist showing the incumbent Democrat 1 point ahead of his potential Republican opponent. Biden was supported by 42 percent and Trump was backed by 41 percent of respondents—a statistical tie. The survey conducted between December 2 to 5 included 1,291 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

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5 things we didn’t put on our 2024 list of 10 Breakthrough Technologies

 

MIT Technology Review by Amy Nordrum  — No one can predict the future, but here at MIT Technology Review we spend much of our time thinking about what it might hold. One thing we know is that it’s especially hard to make predictions about technology. Most emerging technologies fizzle or flame out. Some start out as consumer devices but wind up finding their niche in more specialized applications. Only a few become household names. Each year, we put together a list of 10 Breakthrough Technologies, picking the advances that we think have the greatest potential to change our lives (for better or worse). We’ve done this for more than 20 years, and next month we’ll reveal our picks for the 2024 list. We haven’t always been right (RIP, Baxter), but we’ve often been early to spot important areas of progress (we put natural-language processing on our very first list in 2001; today this technology underpins large language models and generative AI tools like ChatGPT). Every year, our reporters and editors nominate technologies that they think deserve a spot, and we spend weeks debating which ones should make the cut. Here are some of the technologies we didn’t pick this time—and why we’ve left them off, for now.

New drugs for Alzheimer’s disease

Alzmeiher’s patients have long lacked treatment options. Several new drugs have now been proved to slow cognitive decline, albeit modestly, by clearing out harmful plaques in the brain. In July, the FDA approved Leqembi by Eisai and Biogen, and Eli Lilly’s donanemab could soon be next. But the drugs come with serious side effects, including brain swelling and bleeding, which can be fatal in some cases. Plus, they’re hard to administer—patients receive doses via an IV and must receive regular MRIs to check for brain swelling. These drawbacks gave us pause.

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