By Derek A. Issacs with reporting by Rania Ghanem and Shikrallah Nakhoul posted in businessnews.com.lb

Local business stakeholders expect
little or no change from the UK’s decision today to leave the European
Union (EU). The value of imports from the UK stands at $525 million (up
from $305 million in 2006) with exports last year at around $40 million
(compared to $30 million in 2006).

Mohamed Choucair, Chairman
of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture
said: “We do not expect any change in our bilateral trade relations.” He
expects that the UK will maintain its trade agreements and will not
impose custom duties on the local products entering its market.
Food
industries including wine, preserves, and canned food are the main
products exported to the UK. “We believe that the UK market will remain
open for local products,” he said.
Ziad Bekdache, Vice Chairman
of the Association of Industrialists, said: “The euro will be impacted
negatively.” He said that the decline in the euro will raise the prices
of the country’s industrial exports, making them less competitive to
products from European industries. Industrialists have already lost a
lot of clients due to the previous slide in the euro exchange rate
against the US dollar from $1.35 to $1.12.

Bekdache said: “Even
if the UK withdraws from European trade agreements, it would be ready to
sign bilateral agreements.” He said that the Government should act
quickly to renew these agreements.

The level of the British
pound fell to a low not seen for 30 years. Experts however expect it to
level out in the coming days. Nagy Heneine, General Manager of
automobile distributor Bassoul-Heneine sal said that there would be no
impact on their company in the short term, even with the fall of the
pound. This is because we pay for our purchases from the UK in
currencies other than the pound, he said.

The company, which
imports the Mini and Rolls Royce, believes that there could be an impact
in the long run. This could be because the process of leaving the EU
will take around two years to complete, and during that time this will
involve many changes in laws and treaties with other countries.

Brexit
is expected to have a positive effect on the country’s current account
deficit. Marwan Barakat, Head of Research at Bank Audi, said that Brexit
will strengthen the exchange value of the US dollar vis-à-vis other
currencies, mainly the British pound and the Euro. This will lead to a
decrease in the value of imports as expressed in dollars because the
Lebanese currency is pegged to the dollar.

On the UK
Government’s website, its ongoing message said that the UK aims to
increase trade between the UK and Lebanon and to support UK businesses
to invest in Lebanon. A source at the British Embassy in Lebanon said
however that they are still waiting for a green light from the UK’s
Prime Minister office before they can give a statement.

Lebanon
imports goods from the UK that do not have locally manufactured
equivalents, mainly engines for the local generator industry.

The
UK will wait a minimum of two years to start enacting its own trade
policy. All industrial exports will remain penetrating this market at
the same pace.

By Derek A. Issacs with reporting by Rania Ghanem and Shikrallah Nakhoul