By Natasha Bertrand

Al Qaeda’s former affiliate in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra, formally
severed ties with the global terror organization Thursday in an
attempt to “unify” as a distinct Islamist brigade with its own
revolutionary goals and vision.

In its mission to rebrand itself, al-Nusra — now identifying
as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham — has clearly indicated
that it is not committed to Al Qaeda’s brand of global
jihad, but to the singular goal of a fomenting an Islamic
revolution inside Syria.  The break was made easier by the fact that, since its emergence
in 2012, Nusra has woven itself into the
fabric of Syria’s communities and established military alliances
of convenience with many mainstream rebel groups in the name of
toppling Syrian president Bashar Assad. But it also confirms that Nusra has no intention
of distancing itself from the revolution’s non-jihadist
rebel groups, many of whom are backed by the US and its
allies.

For Russia, then — which has consistently used Nusra’s
presence among these more moderate rebel groups as an excuse to
target and eliminate any and all opposition to its ally, Assad —
Nusra’s dissolution of ties with Al Qaeda is a
gift. For the US, it’s a headache.

U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry (L) and Russian Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov shake hands during a joint news conference
following their meeting in Moscow, Russia, July 16,
2016.
REUTERS/Sergei
Karpukhin

“By dissolving its ties with Al Qaeda, Nusra Front has made
certain that it will remain deeply embedded within opposition
front lines, particularly in the northern governorates of Aleppo
and Idlib,” Charles Lister, a senior fellow at The Middle East
Institute and expert on Syria’s jihadist insurgency,
wrote in Foreign Policy on Friday.

He continued:

“Any airstrikes by foreign states targeting the group will
almost certainly result in the deaths of mainstream opposition
fighters and be perceived on the ground as counterrevolutionary.
Consequently, a mission defined by Moscow and Washington in
counterterrorism terms would in all likelihood steadily broaden
the spectrum of those potentially defined as ‘terrorists’ — to
the substantial detriment of any future solution to the Syrian
crisis.”

Ironically, the break comes as the US and Russia prepare to
announce a military cooperation plan, known
as the Joint Implementation Group (JIG), that was meant
to more clearly delineate Nusra’s positions in Syria and
deter airstrikes on civilians and the more moderate
opposition.

“By disavowing its ties to al Qaeda — which, incidentally,
it did with al Qaeda’s blessing — Nusra has made it harder to
isolate it from more moderate groups, some of whose members may
join it now because it’s more powerful than some of the groups
they belong to now,” a US official told Reuters on condition
of anonymity.

Institute for the Study of War

Jeff White, a military expert and defense fellow at The
Washington Institute, noted that the development will probably
not have any effect on Russia’s military strategy in Syria.

“Russia doesn’t bomb Nusra because its a
terrorist group,” White told Business Insider. “It bombs Nusra
because it is an enemy — an effective one — of the
regime.
 For Russia, as long as Nusra keeps
fighting the regime, it will remain a target.”

With regard to how the break might affect the US’ military
strategy in Syria, White said that while the Obama administration
“will want to assess what the split means in terms of
goals, objectives and operations, I suspect the
counterterrorism community will be loath to take it off the
target list.”

‘Laying a trap’

White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Thursday that
Nusra’s rebranding will not affect the US’ assessment of
the group.

“There continues to be increasing concern about Nusra
Front’s growing capacity for external operations that could
threaten both the United States and Europe,” Earnest told
reporters at the daily White House press briefing.

But the development is bound to further complicate Syria’s
rebel landscape, especially as Nusra — under its new name —
mainstreams itself and consequently attracts more young men to
its cause.

Mohammed al-Jolani of
Jabhat al-Nusra reads a prepared statement announcing Nusra’s
official split from al Qaeda, July 28, 2016.

Orient News via
Youtube

That, Lister noted, is where Nusra’s break from Al Qaeda can
be seen less as a conscious separation from the terror
organization’s global jihadist ideals and more as a way of
“laying a trap” for the US and its allies who claim to want
to support the goals of Syria’s revolution.

“The most moderate FSA groups will be forced to choose
between military and revolutionary unity, or operational
isolation and subjugation,” Lister wrote. “In short, Jabhat
al-Nusra is taking yet another step toward shaping the
orientation of the Syrian opposition in its favor.”

Many experts claimed that the US and Russia sealed
Al Qaeda’s fate in Syria after it was revealed that they
were going to coordinate their respective air campaigns
to 
target its affiliate,
al-Nusra.

Now, by breaking ties with Al Qaeda, Nusra has
all but cemented the conditions for its own long-term survival.
Those include increased popular support — which will lead to a
backlash against the West if the US targets the group — and,
potentially, funding from Qatar and Turkey, which may interpret
Nusra’s re-branding as a legitimization of its
revolutionary 
goals.

“Placed in this quandary, international military action
against Jabhat al-Nusra does seem all but inevitable,” Lister
said. “At the same time, however, the consequences for doing so
have become even more concerning.”