Tom Perry and Suleiman Al-Khalidi, Reuters

BEIRUT/AMMAN (Reuters) – On the eve of Donald Trump’s election
victory, members of a Western-backed Syrian rebel group met U.S.
officials to ask about the outlook for arms shipments they have
received to fight President Bashar al-Assad.

They were told the program would continue until the end of the
year, but anything more would depend on the next U.S.
administration, a rebel official at the meeting said. When Trump
takes office in January, it may stop altogether. The president-elect has signaled opposition to U.S. support for
the rebels, and an overhaul of policy on Syria.

The military aid program overseen by the Central Intelligence
Agency has given arms and training to moderate rebels in
coordination with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan and others. It helped to support these rebels, fighting under the Free Syrian
Army banner, as jihadist groups linked to al Qaeda emerged as a
major force in a war approaching its sixth anniversary. U.S. officials declined to comment on any meetings with rebel
groups, and previously have not commented on the CIA program
given its covert nature.

But Trump has indicated he could abandon the rebels to focus on
fighting Islamic State which control territory in eastern and
central Syria. He might even cooperate against IS with Russia,
Assad’s most powerful ally, which has been bombing the rebels for
over a year in western Syria.

Assad, in an interview published on Tuesday, said Trump would be
a “natural ally” if he decides to “fight the terrorists”.

The rebels are looking on the bright side. They say support via
the U.S.-backed program has been inadequate and Washington has
stopped Saudi Arabia from giving them more powerful weapons.

So the rebels hope a more isolationist United States will give
regional states a free hand, allowing Saudi Arabia to provide the
anti-aircraft missiles President Barack Obama has vetoed.

The rebel official said there had been no contact with U.S.
officials since Trump’s win. But were U.S. support to end and
“this veto lifted”, that would be a good outcome, he said.

“Everybody is analyzing, there are positive expectations, there
are negative expectations – but nothing is yet clear,” the
official said.

Dark days for rebellion

The prospect of a shift in U.S. policy comes at a dark time for
the rebellion. Russia on Tuesday escalated its military campaign
in support of Assad, drawing for the first time on an aircraft
carrier it has sent to the region.

Assad and his allies are tightening their grip on rebel-held
eastern Aleppo, where heavy air strikes have resumed and
insurgents have failed to break the siege.

Longstanding tensions among rebels have turned into fighting
twice in the Aleppo area this month.

But analysts also say it is too early to tell what Trump will do
in Syria since his views could be reshaped by establishment
thinking in Washington.

Republicans in his administration will not want to cooperate with
Russia, or bow to the huge influence wielded by Iran in Syria,
where thousands of Shi’ite militiamen including Lebanon’s
Hezbollah are fighting on Assad’s side.

And to many in Washington, Assad remains anathema.

Yet since his election win, Trump has reiterated his misgivings
about U.S. policy, telling the Wall Street Journal he “had an
opposite view of many people regarding Syria” and “we have no
idea” who the rebels are.

His comments cheered Damascus and its allies, which view his win
as positive for their war effort.

“It is true that he doesn’t know us, but the American state knows
us and will tell him,” said a second rebel leader whose group has
been a recipient of military support. “There is an international
commitment to us,” he said. The rebels’ other state backers were
seeking to explain this to Trump, he said.

Western policy towards Syria has been built around the idea that
there can be no sustainable peace with Assad in power.

Assad, a member of the minority Alawite sect, is dependent on
military support from Russia, Iran and Shi’ite Islamist militias
in the fight with the Sunni Muslim insurgency.

Western policymakers believe the nationalist Sunni rebels are
needed to build a stable Syria.

But their policy has long been hampered by splits in the
opposition and the prominent role jihadists have played in the
insurgency. A Western diplomat said jihadist influence would
increase were Trump to abandon the FSA rebels.

In western Syria, FSA rebels have often fought in close proximity
to jihadists against the army and its allies.

Concerns about weapons ending up in jihadist hands still appear
to act as a brake on military support to the rebels.

With the collapse of a ceasefire brokered by the United States
and Russia in September, U.S. officials considered military
options including direct U.S. military action such as air strikes
on Syrian military installations.

But rebels say there has been no big shift since then.

Were the United States to abandon the rebels, their military
fortunes would hinge on Saudi, Qatari and Turkish support.
Officials from those countries could not immediately be reached
for comment on the subject of their backing for the rebels.

The rebels believe Turkey for one remains a steadfast backer. But
its recent rapprochement with Russia has raised questions over
Turkish aims in Syria. Ankara appears more set on rolling back
Kurdish influence and Islamic State than getting more deeply
involved in the war for Aleppo, for example.

The Syria conflict has killed hundreds of thousands of people,
and divided Syria into areas controlled by the government,
insurgent groups, Kurdish militia, and Islamic State.

The Kurdish YPG militia is at the center of U.S. strategy for
fighting Islamic State in Syria, despite opposition from U.S.
ally Turkey, which fears Kurdish influence in northern Syria will
fuel separatism among its Kurdish minority.

The Pentagon also backs some Syrian Arab rebels fighting Islamic
State, despite the failure of a program last year which only
trained a few dozen fighters.

The spokesman for one such group, the New Syria Army, forecast
reduced U.S. support for the rebels as Trump sought to
“understand the picture more and to separate the jihadist groups
from the moderate groups”.

But in the end, U.S. policy will be forced to “support the FSA
groups that have a nationalist complexion”, said the spokesman,
Muzahim Saloum.

Mohamad Aboud, an ex-rebel commander and a member of the main
opposition political body, the High Negotiations Council, said
Turkish influence would help shape a more supportive U.S. policy
towards the rebels.

Unlike with Obama, there would “be clarity in the new Trump
administration”, he said.

(Writing by Tom Perry; editing by Giles Elgood)

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