By Michael Bluhm, BEIRUT: Israel’s Wednesday offer of direct peace talks with Lebanon amounts to little more than a ploy in domestic Israeli politics and a sop to US interests in the region without any hope for success, a number of analysts told The Daily Star. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has undertaken a flurry of diplomatic activity recently, with the disclosure last month of indirect Israeli-Syrian negotiations brokered by Turkey and the announcement on Tuesday of a six-month cease-fire with Hamas in Gaza, but his approval ratings have been at historic lows since Israel’s debacle in the summer 2006 war here. Olmert’s political epitaph may well have been written by the court testimony last month of an American businessman who said he loaded Olmert with cash-stuffed envelopes totaling more than $150,000 when the prime minister was mayor of Occupied Jerusalem.  With Olmert’s political fortunes nearly bankrupt, Wednesday’s invitation for direct talks with Lebanon aims partly to deflect attention from his domestic difficulties, said political analyst Simon Haddad.

"First of all, it’s something that has to do with Israeli internal politics," Haddad said. "Olmert is in a difficult situation. He’s trying to cover for his failure by having [peace talks] with Syria and Lebanon, knowing in advance that nothing will result from these talks." By extending his hand to Lebanon – and Syria – Olmert is angling to keep himself relevant by scoring points at home and with his United States allies by showing his ostensible engagement for peace, said Oussama Safa, executive director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies.  "The Israelis are benefiting from what is happening with Syria through Turkey," Safa said. "They’re good points for the Olmert government. They are taking advantage of this … to throw the ball in Lebanon’s lap." In addition, Olmert is endeavoring as well to burnish his credentials as premier before the bribery scandal possibly brings him down, Safa added.  "He’s trying to stay afloat a little bit," Safa said. "The scandal has really dragged Olmert beyond repair. He’s been a lame duck since the 2006 war."  Wednesday’s move also could represent an Israeli bow to US wishes to help out Prime Minister-designate Fouad Siniora, whose March 14 coalition has been a favorite of the administration of US President George W. Bush, said Fadia Kiwan, director of the school of political science at St. Joseph University.

Israel may be under pressure of the Americans to show that they have good will toward Lebanon," she said.

US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice spent the weekend in Israel and on Monday made an unannounced visit to Lebanon, where she said "the time has come" to deal with the Shebaa Farms, an area occupied by Israel and claimed by Lebanon. Hizbullah has long cited the liberation of the Shebaa Farms as a reason for its men to keep their arms, and the US and Israel could see the attempt to settle the Shebaa Farms issue and initiate peace talks as part of their larger strategy to weaken Hizbullah and the group’s  sponsor, Iran, Safa said.

That strategy, however, is a dead end, Safa added, because Hizbullah would simply attribute an Israeli withdrawal from Shebaa to the power of the resistance’s weapons – yet another rationale for not disarming as called for by many in the March 14 coalition and mandated by UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

"There’s no way to weaken Hizbullah – they are the strongest" party in Lebanon, Safa said. "They will declare victory, no matter what. No matter how you turn it, Hizbullah will cash in." Hizbullah officials have said recent moves on the Shebaa Farms should not be used a pretext to take away the group’s arms.

Despite the inability to contain Hizbullah, the peace push falls in line with Bush’s efforts to leave any sort of positive legacy in the Middle East peace process before leaving office in January 2009, as evidenced by his declared goal of an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement during his remaining months in office, Haddad said.

"It has to do with the reputation and image of Bush," Haddad said. "It’s convenient for both of them – the Bush team and Olmert."

The call for peace talks will likely remain in the realm of spin and image, as the prospective bilateral meeting will almost certainly never occur, Safa and Haddad said. Such talks require an established agenda, an international sponsor and Arab consensus, none of which exist, Safa added.

"None of the factors that would conspire to make it a success are there," he said. "I don’t see any future for this. Direct talks are not going to happen."

Above all, however, the polarized Lebanese political bosses will not be able to find consensus on an approach to the Israeli offer, Haddad said.

"In the political cleavage, they cannot agree on a government – how can they agree on conducting talks with Israel?" he asked.

By proposing talks which will never happen, Israel stands to gain on two fronts – by satisfying US desires to support its allies in Lebanon and simultaneously revealing the utter fecklessness of Lebanese politicians, Kiwan said.

"It’s a maneuver … to embarrass the Lebanese," she said.