Lebanon Moderates Turn Attention

BEIRUT — After widening its majority in weekend parliamentary elections, a Western-backed coalition here now must form a new government, a task almost a fraught as the election itself.

The March 14 movement won 71 seats in Lebanon’s 128-seat body, increasing its parliamentary hold by one. The opposition came away with 57 seats, according to official results released by the interior ministry Monday afternoon. Many pollsters had expected the opposition to make gains–if not capture an outright majority– because of redistricting since the last polling in 2005.

From Washington and across the Middle East, the vote was seen as a proxy battle between the influence of the West and its Arab allies on one side, and Iran and Syria on the other. But the smooth formation of a new government here could be a more important test of March 14’s political strength.

Saad Hariri, the son of slain Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and leader of March 14, has said he plans to invite the opposition into the next government. But he and his allies want to remove the veto power the opposition now wields over most government policy.

Hezbollah is backed by Iran and Syria. The group and its Shiite and Christian allies won the veto after a deal in Doha, Qatar, which ended a brief Hezbollah uprising in Beirut in May 2008. March 14 leaders have complained bitterly that the veto has hobbled the government.

 

I do not believe a blocking minority is constitutional," said Mr. Hariri in an interview before the vote. "A blocking minority is something that came out after the Doha agreement, and it came out of a duress situation."

Lebanon apportions parliamentary seats and top government posts by sect, requiring compromise and consensus between the country’s Muslim Sunni, Shiite and Christian politicians. While beaten at the polls, Hezbollah and its allies still wield significant influence over the composition of the next government.

The March 14 victory surprised many because it came despite some polls predicting gains for the opposition. Analysts and pollsters credited Mr. Hariri’s campaign organization for delivering crucial swing votes.

 

"This was a do-or-die election for them," said Rami Khoury, director of the Issam Fares Institute, a Beirut-based think tank.

High turnout in Christian battleground districts also appeared to benefit Mr. Hariri’s candidates, amid an apparent backlash against Hezbollah’s Iranian tilt. On Saturday, an influential Maronite cleric suggested Lebanon’s Arab identity was threatened by the vote, a clear swipe at Hezbollah. Election officials reprimanded him for speaking so close to the Sunday vote. Some analysts said the comments might have been enough to swing some close Christian races.

"There was an underestimation of the politics of fear" among Christian voters, said Karim Makdisi, a professor at the American University of Beirut.