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"Pffft" Went the UN Tribunal in Lebanon by: Sharmine Narwani
Senior Associate, St. Antony’s College, Oxford University
No surprises from the camp of those who support the STL either. The usual suspects applauded the indictments and insisted that Lebanon adhere to its international obligations in assisting this Tribunal.
Hezbollah has claimed that the Tribunal is an "Israeli/American plot" to undermine the group, and charges that the investigation is "politicized." These allegations have resonated with a large number of Lebanese, particularly after the revelation that the UN commission had based its early findings on highly compromised testimony from "false witnesses."
The commission appeared to opportunistically switch its investigation from Syrian suspects to Hezbollah in 2009, when western nations were trying to rebuild ties with Syria’s President Bashar al Assad. Recent media reports suggest that the Tribunal has re-focused some attention on Syria in the past months, just as these same nations have washed their hands off Assad. Israeli media reports on Saturday suggest that subsequent indictments may include senior Syrian officials, including the president’s brother.
A series of leaks and disclosures have undermined the UN investigation further. One WikiLeaks Cable from September 2008 (three years after the investigation began, and only months before its focus switched to Hezbollah) even shows the current Tribunal Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare imploring Lebanon’s former US Ambassador Michele Sison to help him decide which Syrians to pursue for investigation:
"On this issue, Bellemare repeated what he said in the IWG meeting (reftel): that he did not want to go to Syria until the USG (United States Government) or other sources had provided names of leads he should ask to interview and other information. If Syria denied his request to interview these people, then he would have evidence of Syrian non-cooperation. Just asking would give some indication to others in Syria where his investigation might be headed, which could provoke more cooperation "if I hit the right person."
Impartial or not, the Tribunal has managed to split the Lebanese people and their political representatives down the middle. Surprising then that the country barely registered a ripple from the indictments handed down on Thursday. It is possible that this reflects a critical turning point in the country’s interest in this investigation.
Bigger Fish To Fry
Lebanon has lately been distracted by two major developments – the first, is the formation of a new government with a new majority coalition; the second, possibly more critical event, is the internal turmoil flaring within its influential neighbour, Syria.
The UN Tribunal which could, at worst, undermine domestic and regional confidence in Hezbollah, cause some sectarian strife, and subject Lebanon to punitive international sanctions, is chickenfeed compared to the repercussions of a full-blown Syrian implosion.
In the most pessimistic scenario, Syria’s domestic strife could evolve into an Iraq-style sectarian civil battle that would spill over and reignite sectarian divisions in a line from the Persian Gulf to the Levant, creating a new hub for Salafi jihadists who are currently getting slammed by US forces in the Arabian Peninsula. While this could also mean serious trouble for allies of Iran like Hezbollah and Hamas, it would also create a security vacuum where weapons flow freely in all directions.
Tribunal? What Tribunal?
Lebanon’s New Majority
Predating the Arab Awakening that has swept much of the Middle East, was the formation of a new majority coalition in the Lebanese government. Back in January when the STL was actually still a big deal in the region, Lebanon’s fragile coalition of all the major political parties splintered over the Tribunal, and a new, slightly smaller grouping was formed between parties reluctant to allow the UN-sponsored investigation to proceed unchecked without considering its potentially destabilizing effects on the country.
After five months of posturing, bickering and negotiations, the new government was formed under the leadership of Sunni Prime Minister Najeeb Miqati and work began immediately to present a wide-ranging and mandatory policy statement for a parliamentary vote. Quite inexplicably – unless one is intimately familiar with the bizarre Lebanese fetish for prioritizing regional political battles over critical domestic issues – the STL remained the most contentious issue in the formation of the government’s policy overview.
But then a surprise policy statement was presented to lawmakers almost simultaneously with the Tribunal’s indictments on Thursday.
According to media sources, the references to the STL in the government’s new policy statement remain vague enough to allow Miqati some flexibility to manoever – not satisfying either side of the political equation, but apparently not rocking the boat too much either.
No Evident Fallout
While the Lebanese press went all out on Friday to cover the long-awaited STL indictments and political reactions throughout the country, the mood here appears more fixed on the government’s progress than on the Tribunal – a quantum shift from six months ago when it seemed like nothing except an Israeli attack might have distracted the Lebanese populace from gossiping about the investigation and its repercussions.
On Thursday, worst-case-scenarios touted over the Tribunal’s indictments fizzled as the local stock market even managed to rise a fraction. The ever-critical influx of summer tourists, which has been fickle of late, suddenly picked up dramatically at the announcement of the government formation two weeks ago.
Even in Sunni strongholds like Tripoli and Sidon – the latter, Hariri’s hometown – response was muted and there was no evidence of sectarian strife against the Shiite suspects named by the Tribunal.
Part of this may emanate from a sense that whatever happens, this Tribunal and its ensuing trials will be a drawn out process that may not resolve for years and years. Another reason may be that Hezbollah has spent the past year meticulously spinning their own narrative about this "Whodunnit" and addressing the vulnerabilities and flaws in the STL – preparing the Lebanese public well in advance for these indictments.
But mostly, there is perhaps a stalemate of sorts among a weary population, most of whom have chosen their viewpoint on this affair a long time ago. With electricity blackouts for hours every day, rising fuel prices, systemic corruption and decades of government impotence on vital domestic issues, the Lebanese have more important things to worry about.
And the cards held by supporters of the STL are not the same in this new, fast-changing Middle East landscape. Threats of international sanctions or military intervention don’t carry much weight post-Libya, where UN Security Council permanent members Russia and China are unlikely to rubberstamp new UNSC initiatives.
Furthermore, the new Lebanese Opposition, consisting mainly of parties wildly supportive of the STL – including the recent Prime Minister Saad Hariri, son of the slain Rafiq – will be foolish to harp on this issue when there are so many larger domestic concerns in Lebanon…and a worrisome Syrian revolt just next door. They risk being viewed as a one-issue opposition, over the very thing that brought about the fall of their coalition in January.
When the Tribunal’s mandate comes up for renewal in March 2012, it will likely be extended at Washington’s insistence. But will the international community, having already spent over $100 million on the Tribunal, continue to foot the bill for the ongoing legal proceedings and investigations, when other priorities beckon and the STL has become highly contentious in the country that counts most, Lebanon?
"Pffft" may not be the best way to describe the reaction to the STL’s indictments, but it is the sound reverberating everywhere in this Levantine nation today – the sound of a deflated Tribunal that will need to deliver something compelling to become relevant again as Lebanon focuses elsewhere
Daily Star: Lebanon fully committed to STL: Cabinet minister
BEIRUT: Lebanon is fully committed to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and should continue financing the court as agreed upon in U.N. Security Council Resolution 1757, State Minister Ahmad Karami said Saturday.
“The Lebanese government is fully committed to international resolutions, especially resolution 1757 that is related to the Special Tribunal, since it is impossible to oppose these resolutions,” Karami told Voice of Lebanon Radio Station, adding that such commitment would maintain Lebanon’s relationship with Western and neighboring countries.
This is the first minister in Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s Cabinet that affirms a strong commitment to the STL and Resolution 1757, the resolution which established the U.N.-backed court probing the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and stipulates that Lebanon provide 51 percent of funding toward the court.
The article dealing with the STL in the ministerial statement of Mikati’s Cabinet, which is due to be voted on in Parliament next week, had been a point of dispute among members of the 12-member team drafting the policy statement.
“We can’t accept a decision to stop financing the international tribunal and [we should] resume Lebanon’s part in the funding and commit to what the Lebanese government had committed in this regard based on its agreement with the court,” Karami said, stressing on the need to have a Lebanese consensus to uncover those involved in Hariri’s assassination.
On June 30, an STL delegation handed Lebanon state prosecutor an indictment in the Hariri assassination. The names of four Hezbollah members were leaked to local media.
Karami also spoke about the security situation in the country, saying: “The security situation should not be compromised with because it is dangerous to Lebanon as a whole and it is a red line.”
As for the parliamentary sessions scheduled next week for a vote on the Cabinet’s ministerial statement, Karami said that the decision by March 14 lawmakers to abstain from casting a ballot should be respected.
“I realize that March 14 lawmakers will not cast a vote of confidence for the Cabinet … this coalition represents nearly half of the Lebanese population and it is important that we respect their decisions,” he added.
TIme.com
Who killed Rafik Hariri? Today Lebanon got one step closer to answering a question that has plagued this war-wracked nation ever since the 2005 Valentine’s Day truck bombing that killed the country’s prime minister in downtown Beirut. The Special Tribunal for Lebanon, the UN-backed body investigating the assassination, delivered four arrest warrants to Lebanese authorities, who have 30 days to indict the suspects.
The names were not meant to be made public, but as with all secrets in Lebanon with a potentially political use, they were leaked within hours of the announcement. As expected, at least two of those indicted, Mustafa Badreddine and Salim Ayyash, are high-ranking members of the Iranian and Syrian-backed militant group Hizballah. Badreddine, an early founder of Hizballah and an expert in sabotage and bomb making, according to his profile in Lebanon’s Daily Star newspaper, was arrested in Kuwait in 1990, broke out of prison, took refuge in the Iranian embassy there, and was eventually escorted back to Lebanon by Iran’s revolutionary guard. Ayyash is accused of leading the assassination cell, and is a U.S. passport holder. Syrians have also been named as suspects; representatives of the tribunal will travel to Damascus in the coming days to deliver those names.
Reaction was largely muted in Beirut, though there were some reports of an increased security presence in anticipation of a potential backlash. Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who succeeded his father as head of the Sunni dominated and western-leaning Future Party, said that the issuing of the indictments was a “a distinctive historic moment in the political, judicial, security and moral life of Lebanon… We chose not to revenge or resent. We relied on God and started a costly and long path towards justice and truth through a tribunal of international character with Lebanese judges that would provide evidence and give the accused, whoever they are, a chance to defend themselves.”
Whether or not the accused choose to do so remains to be seen. It’s unlikely that they will give themselves up, and even more unlikely that Lebanese authorities would dare cross Hizballah in order to serve those arrests. “We welcome the international community to come and try and disarm Hizballah,” quipped one member to TIME. “If they can, we will hand them over.”
If Lebanese authorities are not able to produce the defendants within the next 30 days, they can be tried in absentia, with no right of appeal. It’s hardly a threat – Hizballah, which has a leading stake in Parliament, is likely to try to undermine the tribunal on widely publicized concerns of foreign meddling, lack of transparency and leaks such as those earlier today. Hizballah leaders say that the leaks prove that the STL is politically biased against them. Current Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who heads the Hizballah dominated-dominated majority in Parliament, has been vague on whether his government will cooperate with the tribunal, stating in a press conference that "Lebanon’s interests should be above all things… The indictments are not verdicts." A government press release issued at the conference hedged even further: “The government confirms that it will follow the progress of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which was set up in principle to see justice served in a manner that is neither politicized nor vengeful, and as long as it does not negatively affect Lebanon’s stability and civil peace.”
Last winter Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that the group would “cut off the hand” of anyone who attempted to arrest any of its members. It’s a potent threat, considering that the militant group has an arsenal far bigger than the Lebanese security forces. Any confrontation between Lebanese authorities and Hizballah would have a negative effect on Lebanon’s stability indeed. —with reporting by Rami Aysha
TIM
AFP:
Lebanon’s Hezbollah-dominated government will deal "responsibly and realistically" with a UN indictment issued on Thursday in the 2005 murder of ex-premier Rafiq Hariri, Prime Minister Najib Mikati said.
"Today we are facing a new reality that we must be aware of … and deal with responsibly and realistically … bearing in mind that these are accusations and not verdicts," Mikati told a press conference.
"All suspects are innocent until proven guilty."
Mikati, however, failed to specify whether his government would cooperate with the UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which on Thursday issued arrest warrants for four Lebanese suspects in the Hariri case.
The previous government headed by Hariri’s son and political heir Saad Hariri was brought down in January after it refused to abide by Hezbollah’s demand that it cease cooperation with the Netherlands-based STL.
Local media said the four Lebanese suspects were all members of the Iranian- and Syrian-backed Hezbollah, blacklisted as a terrorist organisation by Washington.
In November, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that his party would "cut off" the hand of anyone who tries to arrest members of the Shiite militant group.
BEIRUT: The prosecutor of the U.N.-backed tribunal investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri said Friday that additional indictments could be on the way, as political sources in Beirut indicated the first list of court suspects contained the names of non-Lebanese individuals.
Special Tribunal for Lebanon Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare also asked Beirut to uphold its cooperation with the international court.
“The prosecutor can submit additional indictments to the Pre-Trial Judge at any stage,” a statement released by Bellemare’s office said. “The confirmed indictment is the result of strong teamwork and dedication in the Office of the Prosecutor and countless hours of investigative work.
“It reflects, above all, the continued commitment of the Lebanese people to put an end to impunity in Lebanon,” the statement added.
Sources told The Daily Star that as well as four Hezbollah members, Bellemare’s indictment contained arrest warrants for other non-Lebanese accused.
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri telephoned U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon to thank his organization for its support for the tribunal, as U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke for the first time on the indictment.
“Those who oppose the Special Tribunal seek to create a false choice between justice and stability. Lebanon, like any country, needs and deserves both,” Clinton said in a statement published by the U.S. State Department Friday.
According to judicial sources, the indictment contains the names of four Hezbollah operatives, including two senior party commanders. Hezbollah has declined to comment on the indictment, although its press office declared that party secretary-general Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah would hold a televised address Saturday dealing with the STL.
The court has been plagued by accusations of politicization since its 2009 inception. Hezbollah has called it an “Israeli project” and called for a Lebanese STL boycott.
In a leaked internal STL memo, seen exclusively by The Daily Star, court President Antonio Cassese lamented the court’s inability to respond to criticism.
“Thus far and mostly due to the delicate nature of the investigation the tribunal could not properly respond to the criticisms elevated against it – this was an unfortunate outcome of the confidential nature of the prosecutor’s work to date and of the lack of judicial (i.e. court) activity,” Cassese wrote his staff. He also advised tribunal employees to be aware of what was being said about the court, so as not to appear “naïve” on the situation in Beirut.
“Tribunal staff should also be continuously aware that there are stories and narratives about our institution as well as its social and political impact in the media and in other circles,” Cassese wrote. “This does not have an impact on our judicial work. However, we must be aware of the terms of the debate surrounding us so as not to be deemed naïve and simplistic in our actions and reactions.
“Certain clear principles should guide us as we strive to strengthen the credibility of our work and respond to the criticisms leveled against this tribunal over the past years,” the court president added.
Lebanon is obliged under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1757 to cooperate with the court, which its government agreed to support in 2007. The STL said Thursday that Lebanon must now seek out suspects and actively work to extradite them to The Hague.
State Prosecutor Saeed Mirza, who was handed a sealed indictment from The Hague-based court Thursday, told reporters that the legal procedures now required of Lebanon had begun.
“Legal measures to implement the arrest warrants from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon delegation have been taken according to the rules since yesterday,” Mirza said.
Interior Minister Marwan Charbel told The Daily Star that security forces would apprehend the individuals accused of Hariri’s murder.
“We will find their addresses, raid [their houses] and arrest them,” he said. “If we don’t find them the first time, we will go after them a second time and a third time.”
Charbel also played down fears that security forces would be denied access to areas controlled by Hezbollah.
“We can easily enter the [southern Beirut] suburbs,” he said. “No one gets in our way. Hezbollah has frequently requested our help, particularly on drug-related issues.”
Judicial sources said Thursday that the same three-man court delegation that visited Mirza would soon travel to Damascus with similar documentation, since the STL issues indictments to every country in which it is believed suspects reside.
Syrian Ambassador to Beirut Ali Abdul Karim Ali met Friday with Prime Minister Najib Mikati to discuss developments and denied that Syria would receive an indictment from the court. He also lambasted the leaking of indictment content to the media.
“The tribunal has significantly lost credibility because of these leaks,” Ali said.
Unlike Lebanon, Syria has never signed a cooperation agreement with the court.
Although Cabinet formulated its policy statement Thursday, the text stopped short of pledging Lebanon’s continued support for the tribunal.
The Daily Star has also learned that Bellemare amended the indictment three times since January, once more than was officially announced by the court.
An STL spokesperson said that the third amendment, issued upon the request of Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen, was a “minor clarification and didn’t require the submission of additional material.”
A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Daily Star on July 02, 2011, on page 1.
Read more:
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)
Following are summaries of some of the main stories in a selection of Lebanese newspapers Friday. The Daily Star cannot vouch for the accuracy of these reports.
Al-Mustaqbal: Justice coming following the truth as Hariri asserts end of killers’ era
“The era of the killers has ended and the era of justice has begun,” says former Prime Minister Saad Hariri. This statement summed up the dramatic developments after Lebanon Thursday, June 30, 2011, finally received a copy of the indictment – issued by the prosecutor for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), Daniel Bellemare, in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri – accompanied by arrest warrants against four Lebanese individuals, all belonging to Hezbollah.
The 130-page indictment, which Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen has decided to keep confidential to help Lebanese authorities fulfill their obligations to arrest the suspects, coincided with approval of the policy statement by the “coup” government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati. The Cabinet appeared to have backed away from the clause that deals with the STL which Hariri’s national unity government had unanimously approved.
While Hezbollah did not issue any comment on the arrest warrants of four of its members or the handover of the indictment, Al-Manar television said what happened proves "that the court was politicized and replete with intelligence." Al-Manar also believed the announcement of the names was "no surprise.”
“Nothing is different from the continuous series of leaks over six years," Al-Manar said.
Meanwhile, Al-Mustaqbal has learned that the March 14 coalition has decided to hold an expanded meeting at the Bristol hotel Sunday to announce its full support for the indictments.
March 14 officials said the Bristol meeting would be clear in terms of holding the Lebanese government and authorities responsible for following up on the indictment issue and reject any evasive act in dealing with the STL and its decisions.
Al-Akhbar: Policy statement to ‘follow Tribunal path’
The government approved Thursday a 43-clause policy statement which coincided with the handover of the STL indictments to State Prosecutor Saeed Mirza.
The policy statement has adopted the formula “the people, the army and the resistance," in addition to asserting it would follow the path of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.
Ad-Diyar: Mirza received indictment, tribunal asked him not to hand it over to officials or political authority
Finally, the indictment was issued, but the documents remained sealed. State Prosecutor Saeed Mirza has received a sealed indictment and the STL has asked that the indictment not be opened and not be handed over to political authorities or the country’s top three leaders (President Michel Sleiman, Mikati, Speaker Nabih Berri) or the justice minister.
The indictment is divided into three dossiers that cannot be opened before arrests have been made. If none of the suspects had been arrested, the indictment remains sealed and kept inside Mirza’s locker.
As-Safir: Mikati stresses there will be no strife in Lebanon … Hezbollah mulling stance
In an unprecedented calm, the indictment has made its way to the fourth floor of the Justice Palace in Beirut (where Mirza’s office is). The accusation was clear and the names were announced by the media even before Mirza met the STL delegation.
Pictures of the suspects were on televisions, their nom de guerre had been announced as well as the date they joined (Hezbollah). But all this was met with an unprecedented calm in the streets – from the north to the south. This scene has reflected a reality – Lebanese people, without being pressed by their leaders, are a rational people, mindful of the interests of their country more than some of (political) leaders.
After six years, four months and two weeks, STL Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare issued the indictment in Hariri’s assassination – a decision that came in no surprise. But its issuance has raised a lot of question marks, especially in terms of the mechanism to carry out the decision and what’s next after the 30-day deadline expires.
An-Nahar: Indictment puts Lebanon to critical test
Four years after the establishment of the STL in May 2007 under U.N. Resolution 1757 and under the provisions of Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter, and two years after the launch of its work, June 30, 2011 is another pivotal date in the course of the work of the international tribunal, when the Lebanese judicial authorities received indictments and four arrest warrants against Lebanese citizens in the Hariri assassination.
This development at the international judicial level is significant because it kicked off the countdown to the crucial process in the course of the STL, represented by preparations for the trial after the 30-day deadline.
As for Lebanon, this development is significant because of the unprecedented triumph of the logic of justice to put an end to impunity in a series of political assassinations that Lebanon endured for decades.
The issuance of the indictment stunningly coincided with a Cabinet meeting Thursday morning to approve the policy statement. It was clear the government was in race against countdown to hand over the warrants to the Lebanese judiciary and strived to arrive at a formula that would adopt a "new [majority] attitude" toward the STL.
July 2:
Al-Akhbar: Waiting for Nasrallah today
The indictments which were issued Thursday are expected to be carried out following the delivery of the indictment to Lebanon’s judicial authorities based on the legal principles and laws stipulated by the agreement between Lebanon and the international tribunal. This came in light of Bellemare’s comments that bringing the accused in the assassination of Hariri to justice requires the co-operation of the Lebanese authorities.
Judicial Sources told Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat that State Prosecutor Saeed Mirza assigned the criminal investigation center to carry out the arrest warrants and inform him of the results.
Meanwhile, the indictment was still being discussed within the political, judicial and security forces in the country. Justice Minister Shakib Qortbawi met with Mirza and discussed Lebanon’s responsibility in carrying out the arrests based on respect for international resolutions including the tribunal and justice.
Lebanon press divided over Hariri indictment
By Joseph Eid, AFP
Lebanese newspapers on Friday mirrored the deep political rift in the country after a UN-backed tribunal issued indictments in the 2005 assassination of former premier Rafiq Hariri.
While dailies loyal to the Saudi-backed Hariri dynasty hailed Thursday’s indictment — expected to implicate Hezbollah members in the case — as a triumph of justice, those close to the militant group slammed it as another Israeli plot.
"After the truth comes justice," declared the front-page headline of Al-Mustaqbal, a daily owned by the Hariri family.
"Time is up for the killers as the time of justice begins," read the daily’s editorial. "It is noteworthy that Hezbollah’s leadership has thus far had no comment on the arrest warrants… which all target members of Hezbollah."
Others, however, were less jubilant, with papers close to Hezbollah raising questions over the timing of the indictment.
"It is easy to draw the conclusion… that the political moment the tribunal chose to issue its political indictment is directly linked to ongoing preparation for a new Israeli war on Lebanon’s resistance (Hezbollah) and possibly Syria," Al-Akhbar columnist Ibrahim al-Amin wrote.
As-Safir, another Arabic-language daily loyal to the Iranian- and Syrian-backed group, slammed the Netherlands-based tribunal for its secrecy, saying it lacked credibility.
"The indictment did not come as a surprise, but there are several question marks surrounding it," read a front-page editorial.
"The secrecy of the Special Tribunal in notifying authorities of its decisions, of keeping the indictment sealed but leaking names and details to obscure media outlets and websites, is questionable."
The UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon on Thursday confirmed it had issued an indictment in the February 14, 2005 bombing that killed Hariri and 22 others.
The indictment is widely expected to implicate members of Lebanon’s Shiite militant Hezbollah, a move the armed movement has repeatedly warned against.
The tribunal, based near The Hague, has handed Lebanese prosecutor general Said Mirza arrest warrants for four Lebanese but did not disclose their identities.
Leaks had been made to the press in recent years over the names of those implicated, with Lebanese television network LBC reporting the four were members of Hezbollah.
Among the four is Mustafa Badreddine, brother-in-law of top operative Imad Mughniyeh, who was killed in a 2008 bombing in Damascus, according to LBC.
Badreddine was said to have supervised the Hariri assassination. He had previously been arrested in Kuwait for planning to bomb the US embassy, LBC reported.
Salim Ayyash, a Hezbollah member who holds US citizenship and headed the cell that carried out the bombing, is also among the suspects, according to LBC.
Hezbollah officials contacted by AFP declined to comment.
Hassan Nasrallah, who heads the Shiite group, will give a televised address on Saturday night to announce his position against the indictment.
AFP:
BEIRUT (Reuters) – Indictments by a U.N.-backed court seeking the killers of statesman Rafik al-Hariri, which Lebanese officials say accuse Hezbollah members, will widen the country’s political rift and increase sectarian tension.
The long-awaited indictments will embolden the opposition led by Hariri’s son, Saad, whose unity government was toppled by Hezbollah and its allies in January after he refused demands that he renounce the tribunal.
However, analysts say the increased tension is unlikely to turn violent or lead to a repeat of the 2008 sectarian clashes in which at least 85 people were killed and which brought the country to the brink of another civil war.
Hariri’s March 14 coalition, which includes Christian and Druze figures, will step up pressure on Sunni Muslim Prime Minister Najib Mikati, whose cabinet is dominated by Shi’ite Hezbollah and its allies, to hand over suspects.
"The opposition is going to be fierce and will be focused on him (Mikati) more than anyone else. They consider him the soft spot in the government facing the Sunni street," Lebanese analyst Nabil Bumounsef said.
"He is exposed. The conflict between the opposition and the majority will increase.. March 14 will escalate, he will be in the middle," he added.
Hezbollah, a powerful militant movement supported by Syria and Iran, has for months been at odds with Saad al-Hariri, backed by the West and the Sunni Arab kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Tiny Lebanon, with around four million people, has always been a battleground for bigger regional powers. Syria, which had a military presence for 29 years until 2005, remains the most influential external player in Lebanon’s sectarian politics.
But most regional and international powers which have a say in Lebanon’s politics are themselves facing problems and are unlikely to want to shoulder the additional burden of getting embroiled in another Lebanese crisis.
Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, a strong backer of Hezbollah, is struggling to contain a 14-week uprising against his rule, while Saudi Arabia’s elderly King Abdullah has already had to address turmoil in neighboring Yemen and Bahrain.
"If you look around you nobody wants a fight. The region is boiling in sectarian tension. So Saudi does not encourage Hariri to spark anything. It is not in its interests," a Lebanese official said.
STREETS QUIET
In Lebanon itself, ordinary Lebanese showed little interest in the indictments handed over on Thursday. Life on the streets was normal on Friday, a contrast from when Mikati was appointed to form the government in January and Hariri supporters took to the streets in protest.
"Nobody in Lebanon — the majority nor the opposition — has the interest or the capability to make problems in the street," said Bumounsef.
Hezbollah denies any role in Hariri’s killing and has said it will never allow any of its members to be handed over to the tribunal for trial.
The content of the indictments, which were not officially released, came as little surprise. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said last year the tribunal would target the group, and Lebanese and foreign media had mentioned two of the names which officials say were listed in the indictments.
But officials allied to Hezbollah, which say the tribunal is an Israeli tool, said they were alarmed by the timing of the indictments which were handed over as Mikati’s cabinet, which was formed just two weeks ago after months of wrangling, met to agree its policy statement.
Lebanese governments traditionally deliver a policy statement before heading to parliament for a vote of confidence. The vote is expected next week.
"It is clear that the tribunal works based on politics. Its indictments and everything else related to it are designed to deliver a message," said one of the officials. "They wanted to sabotage the government and put it in an awkward position."
The carefully-worded statement "stressed the (importance of) truth in the crime against Rafik al-Hariri" and said it would monitor the progress of the court.
Mikati urged Lebanese to be "reasonable and far-sighted" to ensure that "those who want to target the country and push us toward strife miss their chance."
HANDING OVER THE SUSPECTS
The 2005 assassination of Hariri, seen as a Sunni leader, plunged Lebanon into a series of crises which included killings, brief internal fighting and a 34-day war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006.
The main question is whether Lebanon is going to hand over the suspects for trial.
Hezbollah, which is both a political party and a heavily armed group, is highly secretive about its military wing, making the mission of security forces to find the suspects — let alone arresting them — almost impossible.
"The group will not confront the state. If they want them, they need to find them first," said a Hezbollah ally.
Few people have heard of the names of the suspects or know exactly what positions they hold, even though two of them are believed to be senior figures. Even fewer people know if they were inside Lebanon.
Interior Minister Marwan Charbel said Lebanon will cooperate with the tribunal, but held out little prospect that the security forces would track down suspects.
"We can implement (the indictments) in the ways we see appropriate," he said. "There are many wanted people in Lebanon. We raid their place of work and residences and we don’t find them, but we are carrying out our duties.
"We will go and raid and if we find them we will bring them and if we don’t find them we will tell the judicial authorities we did not find them."
Lebanon has 30 days to try to carry out the arrests. If no one is arrested the defendants can be tried in absentia.
Hezbollah officials declined to comment but Nasrallah is expected to give a speech on Saturday.
The Future Movement, which is led by Hariri, said after meeting on Friday that it will vote against Mikati’s government when parliament meets next week.
It said it considered the government’s policy statement as a "coup against the tribunal" and said it "drags Lebanon into the trap of deepening the internal division and confronting the international community."
(Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)
(Reuters) – Here is a timeline of events in Lebanon leading to the indictments issued on Thursday by a U.N.-backed court investigating the 2005 killing of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri.
February 14, 2005 – Hariri is killed, along with 22 others, by a huge truck bomb in Beirut, triggering international pressure on neighboring Syria to end a 29-year military presence in Lebanon.
April 26 – Last Syrian soldiers leave Lebanon.
June 16 – An international investigation into Hariri’s killing begins.
June 19 – Lebanese parliamentary elections end in victory for anti-Syrian alliance led by Hariri’s son Saad al-Hariri.
October 20 – In a report to the U.N. Security Council, the preliminary findings of the international investigation implicate high-ranking Syrian and Lebanese officials in the Hariri killing. Syria denies any role.
February 6, 2006 – Christian leader Michel Aoun, head of the Free Patriotic Movement, strikes a political alliance with the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Shi’ite group Hezbollah.
July 12 – Hezbollah captures two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid, setting off a 34-day war which is eventually halted by a U.N. Security Council resolution.
November 11 – After the collapse of talks on giving Hezbollah and its allies more say in government, five pro-Syrian ministers loyal to Hezbollah and the Amal movement resign, stripping the cabinet of all Shi’ite representation.
November 21 – Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, a member of the anti-Syrian coalition, is killed by gunmen.
June – Sept 2007 – Two anti-Syrian parliamentarians are killed by car bombs in Beirut.
November 23 – Pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud’s term ends.
December 5 – Army chief General Michel Suleiman emerges as a consensus candidate for president, but his election is held up.
December 12 – A car bomb east of Beirut kills Brigadier General Francois al-Hajj, the army’s head of operations.
May 6, 2008 – Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s cabinet accuses Hezbollah of operating a private telecommunications network and installing spy cameras at Beirut airport. The cabinet removes the airport security chief.
May 7 – In response, Hezbollah and its allies paralyze Beirut with roadblocks. Two days later Hezbollah takes control of mainly Muslim west Beirut.
May 21 – After mediation, rival leaders sign a deal in Qatar to end 18 months of political conflict. It paves the way for parliament to elect Suleiman as president and for the formation of a new cabinet. Suleiman is sworn in as president on May 25.
July 11 – Leaders agree on a unity government that gives effective veto power to Hezbollah and its allies.
August 13 – On his first visit to Syria as president, Suleiman agrees with President Bashar al-Assad that their countries will establish diplomatic ties for the first time since independence.
March 1, 2009 – The Special Tribunal for Lebanon, established to try suspects in Hariri’s killing, begins operations in The Hague.
April 29 – Tribunal orders release of four pro-Syrian security generals held since 2005 in connection with the killing, citing lack of sufficient evidence.
June 7 – An anti-Syrian coalition, led by Hariri, defeats Hezbollah and its main Christian ally Michel Aoun in parliamentary elections. Hariri is later appointed prime minister-designate.
November 9 – Hariri forms a new unity government that includes two ministers from Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hezbollah.
December 19 – Hariri holds "constructive" talks with President Assad in Damascus, ending five years of animosity between Syria and the alliance led by Hariri.
August 25, 2010 – A U.N. prosecutor investigating the Hariri assassination urges Hezbollah to hand over more of the information that Hezbollah says implicates Israel.
October 28 – Hezbollah urges all Lebanese to boycott the U.N.-backed inquiry and accuses investigators of sending information to Israel.
January 12, 2011 – Ministers from Hezbollah and its political allies resign, bringing down Hariri’s government.
January 17 – Tribunal prosecutor issues draft indictments over Hariri killing. The still secret indictments are later revised in March and May.
June 13 – Telecoms tycoon Najib Mikati forms a new government dominated by Hezbollah’s political allies.
June 30 – Tribunal hands over indictments and four arrest warrants to Lebanon, the state prosecutor says. Saad al-Hariri urges Mikati’s government to cooperate with the court.
(Writing by David Cutler, London Editorial Reference Unit)