The Obama administration has maintained that its response to the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons also reflects on the US posture toward Iran. In an address at the New America Foundation on Monday, National Security Advisor Susan Rice made the case, perhaps more emphatically than anyone else in the administration, linking a possible US strike in Syria to Iran’s nuclear drive. America’s credibility vis-à-vis Tehran was on the line, Rice stressed. “This has implications for our efforts to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran,” Rice said. A strike, she added, would “demonstrate that America means what we say. It will make clear to Assad and his allies—Hezbollah and Iran—that they should not test the resolve of the United States of America.”

Rice’s address came before the sudden emergence of the so-called “Russian initiative” to deal with Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal, and before President Obama’s subsequent address to the nation. There was already much skepticism that the limited strike conceived by the administration – “unbelievably small,” as Secretary of State John Kerry put it – would send the kind of message the administration was claiming it would. However, now that the president has postponed any strike indefinitely, it’s doubtful the Iranians see Obama’s performance the way the White House imagines. The same goes for the Israelis, who are likewise observing and drawing conclusions. 

From the first day the US let on it was considering a strike against the Syrian regime, Tehran wasted no time in ramping up its rhetoric and threats of retaliation, against US interests and also possibly against Israel. Iran’s objective was to amplify the doubts in Obama’s mind enough to dissuade him. And in the run-up to Obama’s decision to seek Congressional authorization for a strike, the Iranians likely did not fail to notice how uncomfortable he was when discussing potential military action. The president dialed down expectations, emphasizing that any action he might take would be a “limited, narrow act,” not aimed at toppling Bashar al-Assad or even at tipping the balance against his regime. Instead, Obama reminded us at every turn that he believes there is no military solution in Syria, only a political one. [Link]