This month both Israel and Cyprus were reminded of an important lesson in searching for offshore oil and gas: nothing is guaranteed until you start to drill. Lebanon should pay attention. As recently as early September, Shemen Oil and Gas Resources – an Israeli company chaired by former Israeli Army Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi – said a field it wanted to explore showed “significant signs” of natural gas, and possibly even oil. After actually drilling, however, the well – known as Yam-3 – turned out to be dry. No gas. No oil. No windfall profits.

The disappointment is Cyprus was far less severe but still significant for the gas export infrastructure the island is hoping to create. On October 3, US-based Nobel Energy revised downward their estimate of how much gas the Aphrodite field holds. Initial estimates put the amount at a mean of approximately 7 trillion cubic feet (tcf).

After drilling a second appraisal well to better judge how much is actually there, Nobel said the approximate mean amount of gas is only 5 tcf. Cyprus will reportedly have to delay plans to build a liquefied natural gas facility as a result. [Link]