The Syrian government must cooperate with the UN investigation into the Hariri assassination and resist interference in Lebanese affairs, such as arming loyalist groups to threaten political foes; it must also establish normal diplomatic relations with Lebanon and ease passage at the border. The U.S. and EU should refrain from putting pressure on the Lebanese government to disarm Hizbollah and instead leave its status to another day and Lebanon’s own decision-making. And the UN should continue to support the Mehlis investigation, facilitating if requested a trial in a third-country.

“Lebanon has navigated Hariri’s assassination, a government crisis, elections and Syria’s withdrawal with surprising poise, but further shocks are inevitable”, says Nicholas Pelham, Crisis Group Senior Analyst. “Outside actors might be tempted to use this period as opportunity to further their competing agendas, but they do so at Lebanon’s peril”.