By Mina Al-Oraibi
|
Contributor

LONDON — Ever since the streets of Tunis and Cairo
were occupied with protesters five years ago, the Arab world has been
witnessing a turning of tides and overhaul of policies that seems sure
to dictate regional dynamics for decades. No country is more emblematic
of the pre-2011 status quo than Lebanon.

Since the endorsement of
the Taif Agreement of 1989 that ended its brutal civil war, Lebanon has
maintained a tricky power-sharing balance between political factions,
based largely on religious, sectarian divides and reaffirmed by
political dynasties. Importantly, this tricky balance was embedded in a
regional power structure. While Iran ramped up its support for the Islamist Shia Hezbollah and its allies, Saudi Arabia
became the primary backer of the Sunni political parties, primarily
that of the assassinated former Prime Minister Rafik Al Hariri, and
allies of various denominations. This balance was rooted in a Syrian
hegemony that has been eroded as its own civil war enters its sixth
year.

As Hezbollah’s armaments and leverage grew in size over the years,
Saudi Arabia saw itself invested in the Lebanese military as the
guarantor of the republic. However, this power play is today under great
strain, as Saudi-Iranian tensions spill onto the surface. In a dramatic
and unexpected move last month, Saudi Arabia announced it would halt
its support to the Lebanese military, suspending a $4 billion aid
package that included $3 billion to equip the Lebanese army with French weapons and equipment and another $1 extra billion for internal security.

The
decision is a culmination of Saudi frustration with some of the
Lebanese factions within the government, particularly Foreign Minister
Gibran Bassil, son-in-law of Gen. Michel Oun, Hezbollah’s ally and who
continues to eye the presidency. Bassil’s decision not to condemn last
December’s attack on the Saudi Embassy in Tehran, despite the Iranian
government’s own condemnation of the attack, was one step too far for
the Saudis.

Halting the military aid came with harsh statements,
as Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Adel AlJubeir, said “Lebanon’s
decisions have been hijacked by Hezbollah.” One Lebanese diplomatic
source said Riyadh’s moves appear to be aimed at “forcing” a collapse in
government. As Lebanon’s political factions have failed to name a
president since May 2014, an unraveling government would be detrimental
for Beirut.

In
a visit to London last week, Lebanon’s interior minister, Nouhad
Mashnouq, said the matter was beyond the aid package. “It is not a
matter of money,” he said. “The Saudi decision is about trust, which is
more important than money.” Mashnouq, who is from the Mustaqbal party
headed by AlHariri’s son, Saad AlHariri, said that for the first time
“Lebanon has broken with Arab consensus.”

Firas Maksad, adjunct
professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs in George
Washington University, says Saudi Arabia has traditionally favored
stability in Lebanon, even seemingly at the expense of its own
interests.

“Its decision to suspend aid indicates shifting
priorities, where Lebanese stability takes a back seat to the Kingdom’s
efforts to roll back Iranian influence,” Maksad says. The move is a
significant change in Riyadh’s regional policies. The approach, Maksad
adds, alters the Saudi-Iranian arrangement that maintained peace in
Lebanon, even as sectarian strife has torn Syria and Iraq.

The
halt in military aid is a significant move, but not the only one. It was
followed by the Gulf Cooperation Council, the body that is comprised of
the six Arab Gulf States, publicly denouncing Hezbollah as a terrorist
organization in early March. This came one day after its leader, Hassan
Nasrallah, launched accusations against Saudi Arabia ina fiery speech
that included pushing the country to civil war and directing bombings in
the country.

The escalation between the Council and Hezbollah
increases the pressure on Lebanon. Saudi Arabia and some of its Gulf
allies have banned their citizens from traveling to Lebanon, while
Lebanese expatriates in the Gulf face uncertainty, with rumors of a few
losing their residency permits.

This comes after years of Council
concerns about Hezbollah’s regional role, including its role in militia
warfare in Iraq, Syria and most recently Yemen.

Maksad highlights
the fact that “Hezbollah has an interest in managing domestic anger,
particularly Sunni frustrations, arising from its decision to fight on
behalf of Iran and the Assad regime in Syria. Nasrallah is trying to
avoid the mistakes of former PM (Nouri) Maliki in Iraq, namely forcing
Sunnis into the hands of violent extremists. A more aggressive Saudi
approach on Lebanon may eventually make it more difficult for its
Lebanese allies to continue a power-sharing arrangement with Hezbollah,
perhaps leading to the collapse of the current government.”

[READ: Khobar bomber’s arrest increases Saudi-Iranian tensions]

Extremists
who have taken advantage of this situation at the expense of the
Lebanese armed forces include Jabhat al-Nusra, the Al-Qaeda affiliated
group. Al-Nusra kidnapped 16 members of the Lebanese security forces in
August 2014, only to conclude a prisoner swap last December that
witnessed the release of 13 of their fighters in exchange. The deal,
mediated by Qatar, was further proof of the undermining of Lebanon’s
state forces, with the aid of a foreign country.

Today, Saudi
Arabia’s decision to suspend military aid has put its traditional ally,
AlHariri and his Mustaqbal party, in a corner. AlHariri has publicly
pleaded with Riyadh to reconsider its position, while Western allies ask
Saudi Arabia to maintain its place in Lebanon, rather than leave a
vacuum for Iran to fill.

[READ: Learn more about Iran]

There
are various international concerns about the fallout of the Saudi
decision. Paris is particularly invested in reinstating the Saudi deal
as it looks to increase its military imports to the region while
Washington works to maintain the regional balance between Riyadh and
Tehran. Meanwhile, Mashnouq and other Lebanese politicians traditionally
close to the Saudis continue their efforts to win over Riyadh once
more. “We are doing all that we can. … the door is not closed,” Mashnouq
says.

A quarter century after the end of its civil war, Lebanon
faces serious challenges: a presidential vacuum, a crisis that has seen
its streets filled with rubbish, a refugee surge from Syria where one
quarter of those living in Lebanon are Syrian refugees, and a
debt-to-gross domestic product ratio over 140 percent. The cutting off
of aid to Lebanon’s military, in addition to Hezbollah’s escalation with
the Gulf, may be one challenge too many.