Protesters stormed Iraq’s heavily fortified Green Zone over the
weekend, for the first time since its concrete barriers were erected
more than 13 years ago to separate US security forces and Iraqi
elites from the rest of Baghdad. The unprecedented breach has created an “accelerated meltdown” that “could be
both a local catastrophe and a signature blot on Obama’s foreign policy
record,” David Rothkopf, the CEO of the Foreign Policy publishing
group, said on Monday.
Ever since ISIS overran the northern Iraqi city of Mosul in
June 2014, much of President Barack Obama’s dealings with Baghdad
have revolved around formulating a cohesive strategy to halt the
jihadists’ momentum in Iraq and Syria.
It has been a battle that, as The Washington Post’s Greg Jaffe pointed out, “is predicated on having a credible and effective Iraqi ally on the ground in Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.”
As many analysts have noted since the political chaos erupted
on Saturday, the Obama administration’s narrow focus on consolidating
a partnership with Abadi has resulted in a one-dimensional policy
that focuses too heavily on one manifestation of Iraq’s political
instability — ISIS — rather than its root cause, which is widespread
incompetence and corruption.
“The message to the Iraqis has been to focus on the short-term
problem that this president would like solved by January,” Doug
Ollivant, a former military planner in Baghdad and senior fellow at the
New America Foundation, told The Washington Post. “The focus is on the
symptom and not the root cause of the problem.”
Khalid al Mousily/Reuters
Followers of Iraq’s Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr storm Baghdad’s Green
Zone after lawmakers failed to convene for a vote on overhauling the
government in Iraq on April 30.
In Politico, Emma
Sky, a senior political adviser to US Gen. Ray Odierno in Iraq from
2007 to 2009, suggested that for many ordinary Iraqis the Green Zone
symbolizes Baghdad’s “broken politics, catastrophic corruption, and
mismanagement.”
“Under the right circumstances, Iraqi forces, with US support,
can smash the Islamic State,” Sky wrote. “But Washington should not kid
itself: If the root causes that created the conditions for the rise of
the Islamic State are not addressed, then some son-of-ISIS might emerge
in the future — and the cycle will continue.”
‘We need a radical new formula’
Protesters loyal to Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr staged a
24-hour sit-in from Saturday into Sunday. They demanded reform that
would replace a political class selected according to their sect and
ethnicity — a “quota system” implemented by the US-led coalition after
the invasion — with technocrats chosen solely for their professional
qualifications.
Analysts seem to disagree, however, on whether the
reality of Iraq’s ethnic diversity should be considered when reforming
its political system. Ali Khedery, a former special assistant to five US
ambassadors in Baghdad from 2003 to 2009, told The Washington Post that
building partnerships with individual Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish
leaders might be the US’s best hope in creating the kind of stability
needed to bring ISIS to its knees.
“Abadi is generally speaking a good ally of the United States, but there isn’t much under his control,” Khedery said. “What
you have is a society that is deeply polarized between communities and
even polarized within those communities. We need a radical new formula.”
Ahmed Saad/Reuters
Followers of Iraq’s Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in the parliament
building as they storm Baghdad’s Green Zone after lawmakers failed to
convene for a vote on overhauling the government in Iraq on April 30.
Michael Pregent, an embedded adviser with a Peshmerga
battalion operating in Mosul between 2005 and 2006 and a former US
Defense Department adviser to the Iraqi security forces from 2006 to
2011, largely agreed that Abadi lacks control over Baghdad’s political
elite. But he said he believes that the Shiite politician’s loyalty to
Iran has always precluded him from being a reliable US ally.
“Abadi was and is a weak compromise candidate heavily
influenced by Iran and its proxies,” Pregent told Business Insider on
Monday.
That is largely because of the financial support Abadi’s
Dawa Party continues to receive from Tehran, Pregent said, despite some
of its policy differences with the Islamic Republic.
“The US has no leverage in Baghdad, which has long since been ceded to Tehran,” Pregent said.
Obama ‘dropped the mic’
Whether Sunnis, Iran-backed Shiites, or Kurds, however, it is
clear that each group might have something to gain from a dismantling of
the Green Zone’s elitist and exclusionary politics.
Rumors have circulated that the Kurdish Regional Government’s
president, Masoud Barzani, will announce a referendum for an independent
Kurdistan in the coming days. Meanwhile, reports have emerged
that Muqtada al-Sadr, the Shiite cleric, traveled to Iran on Monday
seeking Tehran’s help in negotiating an end to Baghdad’s political
standoff.
REUTERS/Alaa Al-Marjani Prominent Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr speaks during a news conference in Najaf, south of Baghdad, on April 30.
In
any case, analysts seem to agree that much of Iraq’s political chaos
has stemmed from Washington’s longtime prioritization of short-term
goals over longer-term stability.
They also say that a political foundation establishing who will
govern ISIS territory once the jihadists are driven out is essential to
any plan that aims to decisively destroy them.
“Obama ‘dropped the mic’ after The Surge by leaving [Iraq] and
then tilted to Iran to secure the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action],” Pregent said.
He was referring to Washington’s deployment of 20,000 extra
troops to Iraq in 2007 to foment political stability after the war,
and the Iran nuclear deal that has become a cornerstone of Obama’s
foreign-policy legacy.
“The US should move its effort to the KRG to build a majority
Sunni force to clear and hold ISIS territory,” Pregent said, referring
to the Kurdistan Regional Government. “Ultimately, the fight against ISIS is too important to leave to a dysfunctional Baghdad.”
