Last Christmas, the Maronite Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir told Lebanese Christians, "Do not be afraid." At first glance, the Lebanese did not seem afraid, not a bit. Despite all the turmoil they were going through, they still managed to put up their Christmas trees, go to nightclubs, dine at fancy restaurants and attend Fayruz. At second glance, however, the Lebanese had every reason to be afraid back then, and even more so today, one year later. Lebanon continues to suffer from the Israeli war in 2006, and the continued assassinations that have badly hit Lebanon’s economy — and tourism — since 2005 Then came the massive sit-in starting 2 December 2006 which at the time of writing, continues, with the aim of bringing down the cabinet of Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora. Now comes vacancy at the Presidential Palace.

On 23-24 November 2007, Beirut seemed divided between those rejoicing at the exodus of President Emile Lahoud and those paying homage to a man whom they considered a great struggler. Lahoud left a vacant post at Baabda Palace. After weeks of negotiations, the Lebanese were unable to agree on a replacement. Neighbourhoods loyal to parliamentary majority leader Saad Al-Hariri celebrated with fireworks and young people dancing in the street.Syrian television aired a special documentary about him, saying that he was the man who helped unite Lebanon, in his capacity as army commander, in the 1990s. He helped liberate South Lebanon in 2000, and prevented Lebanon from becoming a satellite state of the United States and Israel. Other strong examples are Maronite chief Suleiman Franjiyeh, former prime ministers Omar Karameh and Najib Mikati, parliament speaker Berri, and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah. All of them upheld Lahoud as a constitutional president, after the Syrians departed in April 2005.

Shortly before that, Nasrallah gave a memorable speech, which was much appreciated in Damascus, saying, "Beirut was destroyed by Sharon, rebuilt by Rafik Al-Hariri, and protected by Hafez Al-Assad!" Ever since entering Lebanon in 1976 and unceremoniously leaving in 2005, Syria has had few loyal friends. Former allies like Fouad Al-Siniora and Walid Jumblatt immediately turned against Damascus when it became clear that the Syrians were not staying long in Lebanon. They had actually been the ones, headed by Rafik Al-Hariri, to support and legitimise the Syrian presence in Lebanon during the 1990s. All of them had supported the election of Lahoud in 1998, handpicked by Hafez Al-Assad. Hizbullah’s Al-Manar TV aired footage this weekend of Lahoud’s 1998 inauguration speech, showing Nayla Mouawad, one of the figures of 14 March who at the time was pro-Syrian, clapping with pleasure at the new pro-Syrian president coming to power in Beirut. Mouawad and 14 March are now the strongest anti-Syrian voices in Beirut, described by the world as "historically" anti-Syrian statesmen who "struggled" for the liberation of their country from Syrian "occupation." The Syrians know better, however, and so does Lahoud. Lahoud was not like that and that is why the Syrians are sad to see him go, remembering, too well, that they had brought him to power in 1998 and renewed his mandate in 2004, at the expense of their friendship with Rafik Al-Hariri. The former prime minister, however, had eventually said yes to renewing Lahoud’s mandate at Baabda Palace. Lahoud’s friendship with the Syrians led to numerous accusations against him, with 14 March claiming that he was responsible for the murder of Al-Hariri in 2005, as reported in the first UN commission enquiry, known as the Melhis report. At the time of his exodus from Baabda in 2005, his top generals remain behind bars in connection to the Melhis report.

But as far as the world is concerned, all of that is now history. What matters is the new president of Lebanon. Despite all the bickering, and French heavy-handed diplomacy, the Lebanese have indeed created a power vacuum for themselves. Saad Al-Hariri is frantic. For one reason, if chaos returns to Lebanon his investments in Beirut will suffer. Setting politics aside and speaking purely in business terms, he cannot sit back and watch civil war erupt in Lebanon. Currently, the Maronite seat is vacant and the Shias, formerly represented in government, are also now in opposition to Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora. This leaves Saad Al-Hariri’s Sunnis in temporary control of Lebanon. That is alarming for the Syrians. Saad Al-Hariri has ambitions to become prime minister of Lebanon after a Christian president is elected. Constitutionally he can do that, although advisors are telling him that this would be political suicide. Saad Al-Hariri cannot tolerate a strong Christian president who would overshadow his Sunni prime minister. That is why he preferred keeping Lahoud (although he detested the former General and accused him of conspiracy in the killing of his father in 2005), rather than bringing somebody like Aoun to Baabda.

Many wrongly believed that due to his alliance with Hizbullah, the Syrians wanted Aoun for president. That was trumpeted by the 14 March coalition in an attempt at tarnishing Aoun’s image in the Christian streets. The truth is the Syrians would be very uncomfortable with somebody like Aoun. They do not forget his war of liberation against the Syrian army during the final stages of the civil war, and that he had led the Lebanese opposition in exile in the 1990s, calling for withdrawal of Syrian troops. Aoun also played a pivotal role in getting the US to pass the Syria accountability law of 2003. He is only allied to Hizbullah because he realises that he cannot rule Lebanon without the support of the 40 per cent of its population who are Shias. True that would end his reputation as a Christian leader — something Aoun never strove to become — and establish him as a cross-confessional Lebanese leader. The Syrians have no idea how he would act as president. He would certainly be better however, than either of the 14 March candidates Boutros Harb or Robert Ghanem.

But if the Syrians are able to get their way, they would opt for Michel Suleiman, the current army commander. Washington DC is not too enthusiastic about him because he is politically independent; too independent for Washington’s taste. He is committed to combating Israel, supporting Hizbullah, and friendship with Syria. His one slogan has been "Israel is the enemy", something that greatly pleases Damascus but is frowned upon by 14 March. If elected, he would certainly work for a greater role for Hizbullah in the government, and might even turn a blind eye to their activities in south Lebanon, as did Elias Hrawi in the early 1990s, and Lahoud in 1998-2006. Also to the displeasure of 14 March was a recent remark by the army commander, "Fatah Al-Islam is linked to Al-Qaeda not Syria."