By AP — Beirut: After two months of political deadlock, Lebanon has finally designated a new prime minister to form a government. Now comes the hard part: saving Lebanon from an unprecedented financial crisis. Nominated with the support of Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies, Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab and the cabinet he has vowed to form quickly must win over investors and foreign donors. What are the main concerns for investors as Lebanon grapples with a hard currency shortage, a huge public debt and a weakening currency? HOW LIKELY IS A DEBT DEFAULT OR RESTRUCTURING? Lebanon’s public debt burden, equivalent to around 150 per cent of GDP, and its twin current account and fiscal deficits looked unsustainable even before anti-government protesters took to the streets two months ago. Lebanon will face a test of its ability to meet its obligations in 2020, with $10.9 billion of debt maturing across the year, including a $1.2 billion eurobond due in March, Refinitiv data shows.

The international sovereign bonds continue to trade at less than half their face value, while credit default swaps have rocketed, suggesting Lebanon may be drifting towards a default. But that might not be a given. “A combination of fiscal reforms and a restructuring of the domestic debt could be enough to put public finances on a sustainable footing without having to resort to an external default,” Farouk Soussa, senior economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note this week.

And even if a default does occur, Lebanon might be able to cushion the fallout. Central bank holdings of government securities implied that Lebanon had near-term debt management options that would limit losses borne by the private sector in the event of a default, Moody’s Investors Service said in a note.

IS A CURRENCY DEVALUATION A GIVEN?

Lebanon’s 22-year-old peg to the US dollar has been strained to near breaking point by the country’s political and banking crisis. With the pound losing roughly a third of its official value on the black market, a devaluation has loomed increasingly large. Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh governor has ruled out any such move, saying the government has the means to maintain it. But without a revival in sagging capital flows and a recovery in Lebanon’s external balance sheet, the central bank’s ability to defend the peg will diminish. Foreign exchange reserves have already dwindled to $28 billion, according to Goldman Sachs. Economists say, at least in the short-term, a devaluation could be harmful as it would push up Lebanon’s already steep overseas liabilities – hastening the risk of a default. It would also likely stoke inflation, at 1.3 per cent year-on-year in October.

HOW CAN THE BANKING SYSTEM BE REVIVED?

by middleeasteye.net —Lebanon’s incoming prime minister began the process of preparing a new government as he seeks to calm protests that have rocked the country for months. Hassan Diab was appointed on Thursday by President Michel Aoun after several weeks of political negotiations in the face of an unprecedented popular movement since 17 October denouncing the entire ruling class, deemed corrupt and incompetent. The movement pushed prime minister Saad Hariri and his government to resign on 29 October and since then has been calling for the formation of a cabinet of technocrats and independents. Parliamentary consultations started with a meeting between Diab and the Head of Parliament, Nabih Berri, who insisted on the need to form a government representative of all parliamentary blocs and of the demonstrators. But some parties have already expressed their reluctance, even their refusal, to participate in the next cabinet.

‘Political’ government

On Saturday, the Druze leader Walid Joumblatt’s bloc announced the boycott of the consultations and announced that it would not participate in the government. For his part, Hariri has not publicly supported his successor, while the main Sunni parliamentary bloc he chairs “will not participate in the next government,” a source close to the source told AFP on Friday. The Lebanese Forces (FL), a Christian party whose ministers were the first to resign after the start of the protest movement, have repeatedly announced their refusal to join a “political” government.

On Friday, Diab, whose appointment was supported by the Shia Hezbollah movement and its allies, including the president’s party, promised to “form a government of independent technocrats,” echoing street demands. The little known academic former minister of education called on the demonstrators to “give him a chance” to form an “exceptional government” and promised to meet on Sunday “various representatives” of the protest movement. But the support given to its designation by Hezbollah and its allies has fuelled the anger of part of the street, in particular Sunnis, who see it as a marginalisation of their community in this multi-faith country. On Saturday, roads were blocked in the Akkar region and in Tripoli, in the north of the country, after a Friday that was marked by scuffles in Beirut.

Hale meets with Bassil, Geagea and Joumblatt

BEIRUT (AP)  BASSEM MROUE — Lebanon’s newly designated prime minister said Friday he plans to form a government of experts and independents to deal with the country’s crippling economic crisis. Hours after he spoke, riots by his opponents broke out in Beirut, leaving at least seven soldiers injured. Hassan Diab spoke to reporters following a meeting with former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, a day after he was asked by the president to form the country’s next government. Diab, who is backed by the militant Hezbollah group and its allies, begins his task with the backdrop of ongoing nationwide protests against Lebanon’s ruling elite. The country is grappling with its worst economic and financial crisis since the end of the 1975-90 civil war.

On Friday night, scuffles on a major avenue in Beirut intensified after Sunnis who apparently support Hariri closed it to protest Diab’s nomination. When the army worked on opening the road in Beirut’s western Mazraa neighborhood, the protesters hurled stones and fire crackers at troops and riot policemen, injuring at least seven soldiers, the Lebanese army said. The scuffles had begun Friday morning when protesters first closed the avenue in Mazraa where Hariri enjoys wide support. Hours after the avenue was reopened, protesters closed it again leading to the intense scuffles that lasted until shortly before midnight. Outgoing Interior Minister Raya El Hassan, a member of Hariri’s Future Movement, issued a statement urging protesters to leave the streets “to avoid dangers and strife.”

The protesters had earlier blocked the main highway linking Beirut with southern Lebanon with burning tires, causing a miles-long traffic jam. The army opened the road briefly in the town of Naameh before protesters closed it again with flaming tires. The road closures in Beirut and Naameh were carried out by protesters angered by what they said was Hezbollah and its allies deciding who takes the country’s top Sunni post. Hezbollah has backed Hariri for prime minister from the start, but they differed over the shape of the new government. “I ask (protesters) to give us a chance to form an exceptional government” that can work on resolving the country’s many problems, accumulated over the past 30 years, Diab said. It was not immediately clear if the riots that broke out in Beirut will affect Diab’s consultations with members of parliament scheduled for Saturday in preparation for the formation of the Cabinet.

by bbc.com — Lebanon’s Shia Hezbollah movement and its allies have nominated university professor and former education minister Hassan Diab to be prime minister. Mr Diab reportedly failed to secure the backing of the main Sunni-led bloc, which could make it difficult to form a new government and secure Western aid. He emerged as a candidate when outgoing PM Saad Hariri withdrew on Wednesday. Mr Hariri resigned in October following mass protests fuelled by anger over corruption and economic mismanagement. Negotiations on a replacement stalled over the make-up of the new government, with some parties backing the protesters’ demand for an independent cabinet of unaffiliated technocrats and others insisting that the cabinet includes politicians.

How was the prime minister chosen?

On Thursday, President Michel Aoun held formal consultations with members of parliament on who to name as prime minister – a post that must go to a Sunni Muslim under Lebanon’s complex confessional power-sharing system. Mr Aoun was required to designate the candidate with the most support. Mr Diab was nominated by the biggest Shia Muslim factions, Hezbollah and Amal, as well as Mr Aoun’s Maronite Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). Together the groups control a majority of the seats in the 128-member parliament. The second-placed candidate was Nawwaf Salam, a former judge at the International Criminal Court at The Hague. Mr Hariri’s Sunni-led Future Movement did not nominate anyone and told the president that it would not participate in the next government, a source close to the prime minister told Reuters news agency. Mr Hariri had been expected to be nominated for a third term in office after the Sunni religious establishment threw its support behind his candidacy.

by AFP— Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri said Wednesday he would not seek to stay on as prime minister, ahead of much-delayed consultations to give the protest-wracked country a new government. The announcement came after his forced resignation following the protests erupted on October 17. The protesters have demanded a government made up solely of experts not affiliated to the country’s traditional political parties. However, religious leaders said that they did not rule out considering his candidacy. Sunni Muslim establishment has also voiced support for the country’s leading Sunni politician. Hariri said his name was drawing too much opposition for him to be a candidate when official consultations to pick a new line-up begin on Thursday. “I have strived to meet their demand for a government of experts, which I saw as the only option to address the serious social and economic crisis our country faces,” Hariri said. “I announce I will not be a candidate to form the next government,” he said in a statement. Lebanon’s economy has been sliding towards default in recent weeks, but the main political parties have so far failed to respond to calls from the street and international partners by forming a credible cabinet capable of undertaking key reforms. The consultations for a new cabinet have been postponed twice already and it remains to be seen whether they will indeed take place on Thursday and whether Hariri’s chances of a third mandate as prime minister are really over.

Lebanon’s contested PM election

By Associated Press — BEIRUT – Supporters of Lebanon’s two main Shi’ite groups Hezbollah and Amal clashed with security forces and set fires to cars in the capital early Tuesday, apparently angered by a video circulating online that showed a man insulting Shi’ite figures. Police used tear gas and water cannons trying to disperse them. It was the third consecutive night of violence, and came hours after Lebanon’s president postponed talks on naming a new prime minister, further prolonging the turmoil and unrest in the Mediterranean country. President Michel Aoun postponed the binding consultations with leaders of parliamentary blocs after the only candidate — caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri — failed to win the backing of the country’s largest Christian groups amid a worsening economic and financial crisis.

The postponement followed a violent weekend in the small nation that saw the toughest crackdown on demonstrations in two months. Lebanese security forces repeatedly fired tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse hundreds of protesters in downtown Beirut in the worst violence since demonstrations against the political elite erupted in mid-October. On Monday night, a group of young men clashed with security forces in downtown Beirut after a video began circulating online in which a man insulted Shi’ite political and religious figures, heightening sectarian tensions. The group, apparently supporters of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, set at least three cars on fire and hurled stones and firecrackers at riot police. Police responded with tear gas and water cannons.

by NAJIA HOUSSARI arabnews.com — BEIRUT: The UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis accused Lebanese politicians of “trying to buy time” after crucial parliamentary talks to nominate a replacement prime minister faced a further delay. Discussions due to take place on Monday were postponed an hour beforehand amid a widening rift between Lebanese President Michel Aoun and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) on one side and caretaker PM Saad Hariri on the other. It is the second time talks over the replacement leadership and composition of the new government have been delayed.

More than seven weeks after Hariri quit as prime minister, politicians are still unable to agree on a new administration despite the deepening financial crisis facing the country. Kubis warned that “with a collapsing economy, buying time to form a government is a risky hazard for politicians, but even more so for Lebanon and its people.” Plans for parliamentary talks on Monday fell into confusion following the Christian-based Lebanese Forces’ refusal to nominate a new prime minister. The party said that it will only approve “a government of independent experts trusted by the people.” Aoun postponed the discussions until Thursday after Hariri asked for “more consultation on the government’s formation.” Moustafa Allouch, a member of the Future Movement’s political bureau, told Arab News that Hariri is refusing to lead a government without the backing of the Christian vote. “Hariri doesn’t want to face accusations of lacking a national consensus,” Allouch said.

By Reuters — BEIRUT: Lebanese army troops on Tuesday (Dec 17) lobbed tear gas to disperse hundreds of supporters of the Shi’ite groups Hezbollah and Amal who tried to storm a main square in central Beirut in anger after a video that purportedly offended revered Shi’ite religious figures, witnesses and television stations said. Hundreds of […]

by AP theguardian.com — Thousands of Lebanese protesters defiantly returned on Sunday to rally outside parliament in the capital, Beirut, hours after security forces chased them out, using teargas and rubber bullets and injuring dozens. On Saturday night into Sunday there was one of the most violent crackdowns on protesters since nationwide anti-government demonstrations began two months ago, leading to the resignation of prime minister Saad Hariri on 29 October. Attackers in northern Lebanon also set fire to the offices of two major political parties, the state-run National News Agency said. The protesters who showed up in Beirut on Sunday chanted against the security crackdown and called for an independent new head of government unaffiliated with established political parties. The crowd, many raising Lebanese flags, chanted: “We won’t leave. We won’t leave. Just arrest all the protesters!”

Others raised posters saying the teargas won’t keep them away. “We are crying already,” said one, in a jab at the deep economic crisis the Lebanese people are facing. The streets leading to parliament were filled with men, women and even children. Some huddled in smaller groups while others were lifted on to people’s shoulders as they chanted into megaphones. In the town of Kharibet al-Jindi, an office of the party of the former prime minister Saad Hariri was torched and its windows were broken. In a separate attack in the town of Jedidat al-Juma, assailants stormed an office of the largest party in parliament, affiliated with President Michel Aoun and headed by the foreign minister, Gebran Bassil. The party said the contents of the office had been smashed and burned. Hours earlier in Beirut, security forces had carried out the most violent crackdown on protesters since nationwide demonstrations began two months ago. The security forces fired rubber bullets and teargas and used water cannon throughout the night to disperse protesters in the city centre and around parliament. The overnight confrontations left more than 130 people injured, according to the Red Cross and the Lebanese civil defense.

by thenational.ae — Security forces on Saturday fired tear gas and rubber bullets at protesters in Beirut, some of whom tried to break into a barricaded central district of Lebanon’s capital. The clashes continued into the early morning on Sunday as riot police used water cannon and more tear gas to disperse protesters who pelted them with stones. Riot police and security forces deployed en masse, chasing demonstrators in the street, beating and detaining some of them, a Reuters witness and a protester said. State news agency NNA said the tear gas had made several people faint, while the Lebanese Civil Defence said it treated 54 people who were wounded, taking more than half to hospital.

The Lebanese Red Cross told AFP people had been treated for breathing difficulties and fainting, along with injuries caused by stones, noting that both security personnel and civilians were among those treated. The Internal Security Forces said at least 20 police were wounded. Hundreds of people were gathered as part of a wave of protests that have swept Lebanon since October 17, furious at a ruling elite that steered the country towards its worst economic crisis in decades. Protesters accuse the political class of milking the state for their own benefit through networks of patronage.

Earlier on Saturday dozens of young people opposed to the anti-government protest movement clashed with riot police in the capital, throwing rocks and firecrackers against volleys of teargas. Young counter-protesters from an area of Beirut dominated by the powerful Shiite movement Hezbollah and fellow Shiite movement Amal tried to raid a key anti-government protest camp in Martyrs’ Square on Saturday afternoon. Anti-riot police intervened, firing tear gas to disperse them. The square, in central Beirut, has been at the epicentre of the protests over perceived official corruption, poor services and economic woes. These large anti-government rallies, which grew into calls for a root-and-branch overhaul of the state, have mostly passed off peacefully. However, clashes have become more frequent in recent weeks, with supporters of Hezbollah and Amal attacking protest camps in several cities amid counter-demonstrations. Both Amal and Hezbollah are partners in Lebanon’s cross-sectarian government.