by reuters.com — By Tom Perry and Tom Arnold  — BEIRUT – Lebanon’s outgoing Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri met President Michel Aoun on Thursday without announcing progress towards forming a new government, and banking sources said most financial transfers out of the country remained blocked. Already facing the worst economic crisis since the 1975-90 civil war, Lebanon has been pitched deeper into turmoil since Oct. 17 by a wave of protests against the ruling elite that led Hariri to resign as prime minister on Oct 29. Banks reopened on Friday after a two-week closure but customers have encountered restrictions on transfers abroad and withdrawals of hard currency.

A banking source said that generally all international transfers were still being blocked bar some exceptions such as foreign mortgage payments and tuition fees. A second banking source said restrictions had gotten tighter. Hariri has been holding closed-door meetings with other factions in the outgoing coalition cabinet over how the next government should be formed, but there have been no signs of movement towards an agreement. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said he wanted Hariri to be nominated as prime minister again. Under Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, the prime minister is a Sunni Muslim, the president a Maronite Christian and the speaker a Shi’ite.

Aoun has yet to formally start consultations with lawmakers over nominating the new prime minister. The presidency said Aoun and Hariri discussed contacts aimed at solving “the current government situation”. The protesters have called for a new government that would exclude leaders of Lebanon’s traditional sectarian political blocs. But politicians are still wrangling over its shape. Hariri has held two meetings this week with Gebran Bassil, a son-in-law of Aoun. Both Aoun and Berri are allies of the powerful Iran-backed Shi’ite group Hezbollah.

“A HUGE” COLLAPSE AHEAD

BY foreignpolicy — BILAL Y. SAAB –– The author of this controversial decision is U.S. President Donald Trump’s National Security Council (NSC), which broke with the enduring U.S. bipartisan consensus on Lebanon policy. But as bold as the White House’s action is, it should come as no surprise. NSC staffers with responsibility for the Middle East have been aggressively trying to repurpose and downsize Lebanon’s military assistance program for more than a year. The effort was spearheaded by former National Security Advisor John Bolton, but it continued apace even after his ousting by Trump on Sept. 10. Even though the Office of Management and Budget did not give a reason for the funding suspension, the NSC’s case should be familiar by now: It argues that Hezbollah controls the Lebanese government and poses a security threat to Israel, and until the LAF shows a greater commitment to challenging the militant party, U.S. military aid will decrease. There’s another argument for the aid freeze that may have little to do with Lebanon. Since assuming office, Trump has strongly favored cutting foreign aid in general because he believes that the United States is not getting enough back from its friends. The NSC has fulfilled his wish by instituting a new foreign assistance policy that is more frugal and more aligned with his “America First” vision. As a recipient of U.S. aid, Lebanon, like several other countries, was a target of cuts—and now a freeze.

None of the NSC’s concerns about Lebanon and Hezbollah are inaccurate or unreasonable. These concerns are shared by senior leadership in the Defense and State departments and U.S. Central Command. Hezbollah, which has more guns and combat experience than the Lebanese military, does wield tremendous influence over politics in Beirut. It alone decides when the country goes to war or makes peace, and it has a predominant say in who gets to be president and prime minister. But the disagreement in the U.S. government is not over the challenge Hezbollah represents to both Lebanon and U.S. policy. That is all crystal clear. Rather, it is over how to most effectively address this challenge. The White House views Lebanon through the narrow prism of its maximum pressure campaign against Iran. And it seems to believe that halting aid to the Lebanese military will somehow compel its leadership to confront Iran’s main ally, Hezbollah. Not only is this based on faulty logic, but it is incredibly ill-advised. The Lebanese military does not have the means, inclination, or authority to forcefully counter Hezbollah. All it can do is continue to present itself to Lebanese society as a credible alternative to the Shiite group, which is a long-term process. Its leadership understands that any attempt at confronting Hezbollah, which even the mighty Israeli army couldn’t do successfully, will result in the splintering of the military along sectarian lines and the possible return to civil war.

by foreignpolicy.com — Michal Kranz — Expectations were high for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on Nov. 1, which arrived at the end of a tumultuous week in Lebanon that included widespread street violence in Beirut and Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s resignation after two weeks of nationwide protests. But the militant group’s leader had little to say. Like in his previous speech on Oct. 25, Nasrallah stressed pragmatism over idealism and delivered bland criticisms of Lebanon’s politicians while echoing their calls for a speedy government formation process following Hariri’s departure. “We call for dialogue between political parties, parliamentarians, and honest leaders of the protests,” Nasrallah said. “We must all get past the wounds that were created in the last two weeks.”

For the leader of a party that has branded itself as the vanguard of Lebanon’s grassroots resistance for decades, Nasrallah’s backing of the country’s corrupt establishment might seem odd. Yet for now—struggling to adapt to the sudden changes in the political system around it and on the ground beneath it—the group has left itself with few alternatives other than backing the current order and betting on the power of its brand and its ability to dispense violence and threats to keep its supporters in line. Hezbollah will almost certainly be able to weather the growing storm and will retain its powerful position in Lebanese politics—but Hariri’s resignation, together with the social and political uncertainty that has resulted from the protests, has left the group looking unmoored. Through careful deal-making, success at the ballot box, and calculated use of force over the last decade and a half, Hezbollah has played a key role in crafting a political reality in Lebanon that has allowed the group to maintain stability, expand its missile arsenal, and to use the country as a reliable base from which to wage a campaign in Syria on President Bashar al-Assad and Iran’s behalf.

by arabnews.com — BEIRUT: Anti-government protesters clashed with security forces as demonstrators on Monday took to the streets in force and again blocked roads throughout Lebanon. Last week’s resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri had prompted a lull in protests which have rocked the country since Oct. 17. But with no new Cabinet in place, crowds packed Beirut and other Lebanese towns and cities amid reports that Hariri had on Monday afternoon met in his residence with government Minister Gebran Bassil. It was the first meeting between them since Hariri quit but there was a media blackout on the discussions. Sources close to the former premier told Arab News: “Consultations are taking place away from the media because the situation is critical and the search for solutions is underway so that the country cannot collapse.”

The source added that there was unlikely to be any truth in social media claims that a process for forming a new government was coming together. The UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis, on Monday offered the international organization’s assistance to Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun “in the matters it wishes to achieve to face the current circumstances.” After a weekend of relative calm, protesters filled streets in Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli, Zahle and Jal El-Dib on Sunday night in response to supporters of Aoun and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) gathering around the presidential office. Jihad Nammour, an activist and coordinator of the Arab Master in Democracy and Human Rights (ARMA) program, told Arab News: “After seeing the people around the presidential palace and listening to Aoun and the head of the FPM, Bassil, it became clear that the powers had ignored the people’s movement. “Aoun and Bassil presented themselves as honest and trying to fight corruption. Aoun ignored the issue of scheduling parliamentary consultations, which enraged people and led them to renew their protests on a larger scale. The protests seem to be happening according to the people’s will,” he added.

BEIRUT (Reuters) – Lebanese protesters demanding the overthrow of their country’s elite poured back onto the streets on Sunday in the largest numbers since the government was toppled and hours after opposing supporters of President Michel Aoun staged a big rally. Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri resigned on Tuesday following unprecedented nationwide protests, deepening a political crisis and complicating efforts to enact badly needed economic reforms in Lebanon. On Sunday evening anti-government protesters flooded streets in Beirut and north and south of the capital, rejecting Aoun’s attempt to position himself as the guarantor of the protest movement and its anti-corruption drive. “All of them means all of them,” protesters chanted in central Beirut, a reference to the wholesale removal of an elite they accuse of pillaging the state and steering it into crisis.

Earlier in the day, thousands of Aoun supporters had attended a rally just outside Beirut, some waving his Free Patriotic Movement party’s orange flags, engulfing a main road leading to the presidential palace. It was the biggest counter punch to the broader wave of demonstrations that have gripped Lebanon since Oct. 17 and which have included Aoun’s removal among a set of sweeping demands. In a televised speech, Aoun, who must now hold consultations with members of parliament to designate a new premier, called for protesters to unify behind efforts to stamp out corruption, which he described as having become “nested” in the state. He said a three-point plan had been drawn up around tackling corruption, revitalizing the economy and building a civil state.

by cnbc.com — Cory Stieg — Bill Gates is passionate about reading and recommending books he finds particularly thought-provoking. During an Oct. 2 speech at his alma mater Lakeside School, the Seattle high school where he met Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, Gates pointed to two books he thinks are “pretty fundamental” to read for the people he hires to work at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Microsoft: “Factfulness by Hans Rosling and Steven Pinker’s “Better Angels of Our Nature.” Gates fans won’t be surprised that “Factfulness” is about “how life is getting better, and where the world still needs to improve,” according a Gates blog post from 2018, topics that are central to the work his foundation does — helping to improve the health and welfare of people in developing countries.

It’s one of Gates’ favorite books, and in 2018, he gave away a downloadable copy to anyone who graduated from college. “Although I think everyone should read it, it has especially useful insights for anyone who’s making the leap out of college and into the next phase of life,” Gates wrote on his blog, Gates Notes. Similarly, “The Better Angels of Our Nature” “offers a really fresh perspective on how to achieve positive outcomes in the world,” Gates wrote in another blog post. The 700-page book is about violence, which Gates says is important to understand in order to “build more peaceful societies.” “Steven Pinker shows us ways we can make those positive trajectories a little more likely,” Gates wrote. “That’s a contribution, not just to historical scholarship, but to the world.”

By Julia Horowitz, CNN Business — Saudi Arabia is moving forward with an initial public offering of its huge state oil producer that could shatter records and give investors the chance to own a piece of the world’s most profitable company. Following approval from the country’s regulators, Saudi Aramco on Sunday formally announced its intention […]

by cnbc.com Jeff Cox— President Donald Trump looks likely to cruise to reelection next year under three different economic models Moody’s Analytics employed to gauge the 2020 race. Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count. Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.

The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once. “If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper along with Dan White, the firm’s director of government counsulting and fiscal policy research, and Bernard Yaros, an assistant director and economist. “It’s about turnout.”

Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, assuming average turnout. His chances decrease with maximum turnout on the Democratic side and increase with minimum turnout expected. Of the three models, he does best under the “pocketbook” measure of how people feel about their finances. In that scenario, assuming average nonincumbent turnout, he gets 351 electoral votes to the generic Democrat’s 187. “Record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory,” the report said.

(MENAFN – Gulf Times) Lebanese banks have curtailed the transfer of dollar deposits abroad until political turbulence that has engulfed the country and raised fears of a collapse in its currency peg subsides. Lebanon has not imposed official restrictions on the movement of money as lenders reopen their doors after two weeks of nationwide anti-government protests. But banks have independently moved to tighten informal limits already in place for months to avoid capital flight amid crumbling confidence. Tellers working in four of Lebanon’s major banks said transfers of deposits abroad had been stopped until further notice, regardless of the amount and destination. Some said they were making exceptions for clients who could prove they needed to pay for university fees, loans or healthcare abroad, for instance. The restrictions were confirmed by at least two senior bank officials, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue. Banks have fielded calls from high net worth depositors asking to move their money abroad, but both bankers said big clients had been broadly understanding when told to wait until the political uncertainty eases. ‘It’s gone better than expected, one of the senior bankers added.

Capital controls are becoming the weapon of choice for embattled governments in need of breathing room, with Argentina tightening its restrictions after a left-leaning populist won the presidential elections. Though Lebanon’s restrictions are informal and temporary, some economists have warned they could discourage inflows from diaspora investors, the country’s financial lifeline. But Lebanon, one of the world’s most indebted nations, has few viable alternatives. Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have been on the streets for two weeks, demanding the resignation of a political class they say has pillaged state coffers to the verge of bankruptcy whilst leaving the public with failing services. The protests prompted the resignation this week of Prime Minister Saad Hariri. A replacement has yet to be named, raising concerns the country will be unable to implement measures needed to avert economic crisis.

by nbcnews.com — Saphora Smith  — They came dressed in black and wielding sticks. Images emerged on social media of men widely believed to be supporters of powerful Lebanese militant group Hezbollah tearing through a camp of anti-government protesters in Beirut on Oct. 29, smashing chairs and setting fire to tents. Meanwhile, the anti-corruption protesters regularly can be heard chanting slogans against Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the Iran-backed militia and political party’s leader.

The tensions between Hezbollah and the largely leaderless anti-corruption protests sweeping Lebanon are a sign of the great unease that Iran and its proxies across the region are feeling at the upsurge of anti-government demonstrations. After all, Tehran has worked for years to deepen its influence in these countries — and it’s precisely this domestic order that the demonstrators are looking to shake up, according to Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank in London. “The protests pose a threat to Iranian interests in Lebanon and Iraq because they are national in character and therefore challenge the current political order, which is shored up by groups supported and underpinned by Iran,” he said.

Iran has a lot to lose if its allies such as the politically powerful Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi’s government and Iraq’s Shiite militias are shunted from power or see their influence diminish. In Iraq, after U.S. forces overthrew Saddam Hussein in 2003, Shiite allies replaced the Baathist regime. And these are the people in power today and are currently the object of the protesters’ ire. Iran also supports Shiite armed groups in the oil-rich country, who are accused by protesters of building economic empires while many Iraqis struggle in poverty.