By Nicole Di Ilio — al-monitor.com — BEIRUT — On a hot July morning, Ali Samir Nabbouh stood for more than two hours outside a bakery in Beirut’s southern suburbs, desperately waiting for a bag of bread. The shop had not yet raised its shutters, and he jostled among a restless crowd all eager to be first served. “I had to feed Fatima and Sarah, my two daughters. I couldn’t miss my turn,” he said. Nabbouh, a 45-year-old divorced father with a part-time job, was struggling for yet another day to bring some pita bread to the table. Not long ago, to do so was a given for all walks of life in Lebanon. But even the staples of life are out of reach for many now. Not only has the number of bread bundles decreased in weight, but their cost has also increased by 550%. Exorbitant prices are now beyond the means of many. Today, what was considered the food of the poor, accessible to all, has become a luxury good. “Just a few months ago, Arabic bread cost 1,500 Lebanese pounds. Now, it reaches around 25,000,” Nabbouh said. “We are not looking to buy anything extra. We’re just trying to buy some food. And we have to beg for help to eat.” With its currency in freefall, its economy shattered and its flatlining legislature incapable of offering reprieve, Lebanon was one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to a supply shock. And then came Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin’s invasion not only brought its neighbor to its knees, but it also decapitated Ukraine’s wheat export industry and, in doing so, sparked unprecedented prince hikes and scarcity of grain across its main export markets in the Middle East. As of early February, just before the Russian invasion, more than 95% of Ukraine’s grain exports — wheat and maize — were shipped via the Black Sea, and half were sent to the Middle East and North Africa. But after Ukraine’s southern ports Odessa, Kherson and Mykolaiv became battlegrounds, the key corridor was closed, suffocating the maritime trade that Lebanon relied upon.