by Michael Young — thenationalnews.com — There has been much speculation lately about whether Lebanon will go ahead with its parliamentary elections, scheduled for May. While most of the country’s major parties may have an interest in postponing the vote, the obstacles to this are very significant, suggesting that there is a better than even chance that elections will be held. Certainly, parties such as Hezbollah and its electoral allies, the Amal Movement of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and the Free Patriotic Movement of President Michel Aoun and his son in law Gebran Bassil, might favour a delay. Amal and especially the FPM are expected to lose some seats, and therefore prefer to retain their present share in Parliament. As for Hezbollah, it controls, with its various allies, a parliamentary majority, and has no enthusiasm to see this eroded. There are several problems with this, however. The first is that an election can only be postponed if Parliament extends its constitutional term, requiring a two-thirds majority vote. Mr Berri can probably find the numbers, but that’s unlikely to be enough, as he will also be seeking broad sectarian support as well, in order to lend national legitimacy to what is bound to be a controversial decision.
The big question mark is how the main Sunni bloc, controlled by former prime minister Saad Hariri, will vote. Mr Hariri withdrew from politics in January, in a decision widely believed in Lebanon to have been encouraged by Saudi Arabia. If he were to order his bloc to vote for extending Parliament’s term, this could be seen as a surreptitious way of trying to remain active politically, which he doubtless does not want to do. While most of the country’s major parties may have an interest in postponing the vote, the obstacles to this are very significant