OPINION
On arms, Hizbullah accepts nonnegotiable dialogue
By Amal Saad-Ghorayeb
Following the withdrawal of Syria’s military and intelligence services from Lebanon, attention was riveted on the fate of Hizbullah’s armed wing, the Islamic resistance. Bereft of the political cover its military activity received from the Assad regime, the party now finds itself in the position of having to persuade its compatriots of the advantages of what it calls the “unique formula of resistance and army” that Lebanon has at its disposal to combat Israel.
While Hizbullah can count on domestic support for its resistance in the short to medium term, it may not be able to do so it in the long term, once Israel evacuates the Shebaa Farms and a regional settlement is reached. In post-Syria Lebanon, where sectarianism has resurfaced with a vengeance, the question is no longer one of “Why do we need a resistance?” but “Why do the Shiites get to keep their arms?” International pressure from the United Nations, the European Union and the United States in particular could feed on such sensitivities, obliging the Lebanese government to work toward disarming the party.
Hizbullah may find itself cornered domestically, having to choose between backing down at the last minute and giving up its weapons or fighting a losing battle to retain its arms. If it chooses the first option, it will become an emasculated shadow of its former self, operating in a political space demarcated by the very forces which brought about its demise. If it goes for the second, it will find itself isolated domestically and delegitimized.
Hizbullah is attempting to avert the likelihood of such a dilemma by rationalizing its resistance role and underscoring the need for strategic defense. It has been both constrained and galvanized by the U.S.-led campaign to disband its armed resistance. It regards this and the wider U.S. regional goal to militarily constrain Iran, Syria and Palestinian Islamists as part of a “neoimperialist strategy.” It also considers the “democratizing” thrust of the Bush administration a flimsy pretext to shape the Middle East to its own benefit, and that of Israel.