Eve-of-poll voter surveys mostly point to a narrow US presidential election victory for Barack Obama. But with the contest finely balanced in a few key states, it would not take much to shift the advantage to Mitt Romney. A last-minute slip, a neglected minority voter bloc, or simply a piece of bad luck could be enough to ditch Obama and send the Republican to the White House.
Here’s one possible example: Obama’s unguarded suggestion in Springfield, Ohio last Friday that "voting is the best revenge" has been seized on by Republicans. Romney exploited it in a speech later that same day. "He [Obama] asked his supporters to vote – to vote for revenge. Instead, I ask the American people to vote for love of country," Romney said – and then aired a TV attack ad featuring the exchange.
"’Revenge’ is not something sought by most American voters, and 2008 Obama voters who are disappointed in his performance … Voters want someone who will serve the country. The moment when Obama said "revenge" could turn out to be a pivotal moment in the campaign", said Beltway Confidential commentator Michael Barone. Obama faces plenty of other possible last-minute pitfalls as he reaches for the finishing line.
In this razor-thin presidential race, everyone has a theory about where things will end up on Election Day — with some even predicting control of the White House won’t even be settled by the time we go to sleep Tuesday night.
The Obama campaign points to the president’s lead over Mitt Romney in many of the key swing states as evidence that finding a way to the magic number — 270 electoral votes — based on the current map is still a tougher slog for the Republican challenger than for the incumbent.
But today, the last marathon day of the 2012 election cycle, indications about the tightness of the race are everywhere. In our own ABC News-Washington Post tracking poll out Sunday night the contest between the two presidential contenders remains deadlocked, with 49 percent support for Obama among likely voters compared to 48 percent for Romney.
The Bradley effect
Named after a former black mayor of Los Angeles, this phenomenon involves voters telling pollsters they intend to support a black candidate, and then not doing so because of his or her ethnicity. In 2008 Obama enjoyed an 8-9% lead in most polls, but his actual margin of victory was 6%. If today’s polls are overestimating his backing by a similar margin, Romney will win.
Racial prejudice, covert or otherwise, also partly explains why a majority of white males will vote against Obama. In 2008, 57% backed Republican John McCain. The anti-Obama totals among both white men and women may be higher this time, polls suggest. It is also a fact that white males prefer Republicans to Democrats, whatever their colour.
Turnout
The Democrats need a big turnout to secure victory but most estimates suggest Obama’s support, particularly among younger voters, blacks and Hispanics, will fall well below 2008 levels, partly as a result of disappointment with his performance in office.
"In 2008, voters 18 to 29 went for Obama 2-1 over McCain; turnout among these young voters was the second-largest ever recorded. But in 2012, that youthful Obamamania seems to have faded. Alex Wirth of the Harvard Public Opinion Project has forecast that turnout for voters under 30 will be 34 to 40%, compared with 51% four years ago," said Fast Company’s Anya Kamenetz.
Swingers
At the heart of American pollsters’ electoral map lies an awkward little secret. Presidential elections are increasingly decided by an ever-smaller group of swing voters within an ever-smaller number of swing states. Nobody really knows exactly who or where these people are, and that makes for severe unpredictability. But Republicans are claiming independent voters (neither Republican nor Democrat registered) are breaking 2-1 for Romney in toss-up states and that early voting turnout shows the Republican base is more energised.
Acts of God
Religiously-inclined voters could also give Obama a scare. "I expect Mitt Romney to maximise the white religious vote … The major push Obama made in 2008 among white Catholics is completely absent this cycle … Anti-Mormon sentiment has never caught on among the Christian community to the degree some feared. And Obama’s contraception and abortion message has caused a great deal of concern among religious groups, Protestant and Catholic alike," said analyst Ben Domenech.
Perfect storm
Despite suspicions about Hurricane Sandy, Obama does not control the weather. Forecasters say election day will be cold, wet and windy in the north and east – not good for the needed high Democrat turnout.
Cock-up or conspiracy?
Comparisons are already being made with the 2000 presidential election that saw George Bush installed as president after numerous recounts, legal challenges, and myriad balloting irregularities gave rise to claims of widespread fraud and rigging. Today’s election is supposed to be better organised. But Americans are a sceptical lot. If the vote is as close as predicted, and the result is not immediately clear, claims that sinister forces are at work will not be long in coming.
.- Nov. 10 is the Roman Catholic Church’s liturgical memorial of the fifth-century Pope Saint Leo I, known as “St. Leo the Great,” whose involvement in the fourth ecumenical council helped prevent the spread of error on Christ’s divine and human natures.
St. Leo intervened for the safety of the Church in the West as well, persuading Attila the Hun to turn back from Rome.
Eastern Catholics and Eastern Orthodox Christians also maintain a devotion to the memory of Pope St. Leo the Great. Churches of the Byzantine tradition celebrate his feast day on Feb. 18.
“As the nickname soon attributed to him by tradition suggests,” Pope Benedict XVI said in a 2008 general audience on the saint, “he was truly one of the greatest pontiffs to have honoured the Roman See and made a very important contribution to strengthening its authority and prestige.”
Leo’s origins are obscure and his date of birth unknown. His ancestors are said to have come from Tuscany, though the future pope may have been born in that region or in Rome itself. He became a deacon in Rome in approximately 430, during the pontificate of Pope Celestine I.
During this time, central authority was beginning to decline in the Western portion of the Roman Empire. At some point between 432 and 440, during the reign of Pope St. Celestine’s successor Pope Sixtus III, the Roman Emperor Valentinian III commissioned Leo to travel to the region of Gaul and settle a dispute between military and civil officials.
Pope Sixtus III died in 440 and, like his predecessor Celestine, was canonized as a saint. Leo, away on his diplomatic mission at the time of the Pope’s death, was chosen to be the next Bishop of Rome. Reigning for over two decades, he sought to preserve the unity of the Church in its profession of faith, and to ensure the safety of his people against frequent barbarian invasions.
Achrafieh 2020 invited all Lebanese and residents to DISCOVER Rmeil (Rmeil/Geitawi) on foot, on bicycle, or on roller/skateboard on November 4, 2012 from 8:30am up to 6pm. The car-free perimeter was defined and posted on achrafieh2020.org prior to D day. For more info, click [Here].
Bishop Tawadros was chosen as new Pope of Egypt’s Coptic Christians Sunday when a blindfolded altar boy picked his name from a chalice in a ceremony invoking divine guidance for the beleaguered minority. Acting head of the church Bishop Pachomius took the ballot from the boy’s hand and, showing it to those crowded into St. […]
French President Francois Hollande warned on Sunday that Paris would prevent any attempt to undermine Lebanon’s stability, advising political forces to join hands through dialogue to avert a further crisis. “I would say to all those who can contribute to the stability of Lebanon to work through the spirit of dialogue,” Hollande said at a […]
France will oppose those creating instability in Lebanon, President Francois Hollande said on Sunday, two weeks after a car bombing in Beirut that the political opposition have blamed on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Lebanon has been threatened by spillover from the 19-month-old conflict in neighboring Syria in which 32,000 people […]
LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) – Life expectancy in the United States is now 76.3 years for men and 81.1 years for women, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It must be noted that a man who had already reached the age of 75 in 2011 has a life expectancy of another 11.0 years, while a woman who had reached 75 had a life expectancy of another 12.9 years.
Over the past 10 years, many decisive and significant decisions have been rendered by the high court by a margin of one vote.
For example, in its 2002 opinion in Zelman v. Simmons-Harris, the court voted 5-4 that a school-choice program in Ohio that allowed students to redeem tuition vouchers at private schools, including those with a religious affiliation, did not violate the First Amendment prohibition on Congress enacting laws "respecting an establishment of religion." Anthony Kennedy voted with the majority in this case.
In its 2003 opinion in Grutter v. Bollinger, the court voted 5-4 that it did not violate the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment for the University of Michigan Law School to consider race as a factor in admitting students.
Kelo v. New London, in its In its 2005 opinion, the court voted 5-4 that a city in Connecticut could take property away from one private owner and give it to another private owner in hopes of increasing the city’s tax revenues and that this did not violate the 5th Amendment which says government can take private property only for a "public use."
More importantly, in its opinion on the cases challenging the "Obamacare law," the court voted 5-4 that the federal government could force individuals to buy health insurance.
The following lists the nine justices from eldest to youngest:
WASHINGTON, DC (Catholic Online) – The issue of voter guides has been raised again and again in our Catholic Countdown to Election 2012. And for good reason! How can Catholics make an informed decision without knowing the teaching of the Church on the most importance issues or knowing where the candidates stand on those […]
Clare Hinshaw Being only 22, I can’t really say I’ve been involved in politics for a long time but, I have been involved for the majority of my short life. I became interested in politics through my involvement in the pro-life movement, so naturally the life issues come first and foremost in my mind. […]
المؤشرات السياحية مقلقة فعلاً. الفاعلون في القطاع يتحدّثون عن تراجع الأعمال بنسبة 50%. الأسباب تعود بالدرجة الأولى إلى الأوضاع الأمنية المتردية التي سادت أخيراً، وإلى الصراع المتدفّق إلى لبنان عبر حبل السرّة بين بيروت ودمشق. لهذا الوضع تداعيات خطيرة على تشغيل المؤسسات السياحية المختلفة – فنادق، نواد ليلية، مقاه ومطاعم – بل على الاقتصاد […]
