Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress
Jeremy M. Sharp
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
Despite its weak military and lackluster economy, Syria remains relevant in Middle Eastern
geopolitics. The Asad regime has its hands in each of the four major active or potential zones of
conflict in the region (Lebanon, Israel-Palestine, Iraq, and Iran). In the Levant, Syrian leaders aim
to dominate the internal politics of Lebanon, and have been accused of involvement in the
assassination of four parliamentarians and former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The Asad regime
has resisted U.S. and French attempts to bolster the pro-Western government of Prime Minister
Fouad Siniora, believing that it can weather the storm of U.S. pressure over time. Syria also plays
a key role in the Middle East peace process, acting at times as a “spoiler” by sponsoring
Palestinian militants and facilitating the rearmament of Hezbollah. At other times, it has
participated in substantive negotiations with Israel, most recently in 1999-2000. A September 6
Israeli air strike against an alleged nascent Syrian nuclear facility heightened an already tense
atmosphere between the two countries, though most experts believe that neither side desires a
new war. Regarding Iraq, the Iraqi refugee crisis has affected Syria far more than Syria has
influenced internal Iraqi politics since the fall of Saddam Hussein. There now may be close to 1.4
million Iraqis inside Syria, many of whom face the dim prospect of remaining in permanent exile.
Finally, Syria’s longstanding relationship with the Iranian clerical regime is of great concern to
U.S. strategists. As Syria grew more estranged from the United States throughout this decade,
Syrian-Iranian relations improved, and some analysts have called on U.S. policymakers to woo
Syrian leaders away from Iran. Others believe that the Administration should go even further in
pressuring the Syrian government and should consider implementing even harsher economic
sanctions against it.
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Lebanon’s Christians could be ‘swing vote’ in parliamentary elections
By Brooke Anderson, JEZZINE, Lebanon (CNS) — Sitting at an outdoor cafe on a mild spring afternoon, overlooking the town square of Jezzine, Samaan Dahir felt optimistic about Lebanon’s June 7 parliamentary elections. "The resistance needs to win," said Dahir, referring to the so-called March 8 coalition led by Hezbollah, the Shiite political party credited for liberating South Lebanon from 18 years of Israeli occupation and subsequently helping to rebuild the war-torn region. "Let’s give the opposition a chance and see the how they implement their reform programs. I’m definitely for March 8. I’m for change." Dahir, a Maronite Catholic from Jezzine, is optimistic about the election and is happy that the campaign appears to be giving more of a voice to Christians than in previous years.
The incumbent pro-Western March 14 coalition is composed by the Mustaqbal (Future) movement, made up mainly of Sunnis, but also various Christian groups (Lebanese Forces, Kataeb, Liberal Party, Quornet Chehwane, indpendants) and PSP . The opposition, is composed by Hezbollah,the Free Patriotic Movement of Maronite Catholic Michel Aoun, a retired army general, AMAL, MARADA, Tadamon and Democratic Party led by Arslan and other independants and smaller parties.
Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, compared the importance of Lebanon’s Christian voters to a swing state in a U.S. election."It’s an unintended consequence of the process," said Salem. "It doesn’t mean Ohio is the most important state or Christians in Lebanon are more important."
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