Khazen

    We’re just a couple of weeks away from the 2012 U.S. presidential election and, as the respective campaigns of President …

US Presidential Polls

 

 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46%. Two percent (2%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

This is the second straight day with Romney enjoying a 4-point advantage. Prior to that, with the exception of the convention bounces, neither candidate had led by more than three points for months. However, it is not clear whether this represents a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise. See daily tracking history.

These updates are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, approximately two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the end of Monday night’s presidential debate. The single night of interviews conducted after the debate is similar to the two-point advantage Romney has enjoyed recently rather than the current four-point spread. As always, caution should be used when interpreting a single night of data in a tracking poll. Friday morning will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the final debate.

Mitt Romney has advanced to a slight lead over Barack Obama in trust to handle the economy, and Obama has slipped beneath a clear majority in who better understands the public’s economic problems – two key metrics of the 2012 presidential race. These trends in the latest ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll aren’t strong enough to change current preferences, nor is the 2-1 view that Obama won Monday night’s final debate. But they’re among the underlying dynamics making the race seem closer now than a month ago. See PDF with full results and charts here.

The candidates remain essentially tied, with 49 percent of likely voters for Romney, 48 percent for Obama in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. That includes vast and sharpening gaps among some groups, with highs for both candidates among core supporters.

One example is white men, in particular those who lack a college degree; almost all of the recent shifts in trust on the economy and perceived economic empathy have occurred in this group. Romney’s support among white men is its highest of the campaign, a 2-1 margin, 65-32 percent. That compares with 57-41 percent, McCain-Obama, in the 2008 exit poll.

While it’s closer among white women, 53-44 percent, Romney-Obama, that very broad support among white men lifts Romney to a new high among whites overall, 59 percent. And it expands the gender gap to a new high as well: A 17-point lead for Romney among men, 57-40 percent, compared with a 15-point advantage for Obama among women, 56-41 percent.

And it’s men, compared to four years ago, who are making it close. Obama beat John McCain among women in 2008 by 13 points, similar to his margin over Romney today. But McCain only tied Obama among men, a far cry from Romney’s large advantage in this group now.

Obama pushes back among other groups. One example is Hispanics, whom Obama described as crucial to his re-election in a Des Moines Register interview released today. While they make up a small share of the national electorate in this survey, 8 percent (about the same as in 2008), Obama is supported by 75 percent of Hispanics – a new high this season, and more than his 67 percent in the 2008 exit poll. They indeed could be critical in close states, or in those with larger concentrations of Hispanic voters.

 

 

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