Analysis

Have outside powers manipulated Lebanon's Christians?

By Adnan El-Ghoul , Daily Star ,  May 21, 2005

BEIRUT: Following his visit to Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir, former Lebanese Ambassador to Washington Abdullah Bou Habib said that, instead of Bkirki crying for help, "We see the world's greater powers asking Sfeir to help them."

One couldn't agree less with Bou Habib's statement, nor help but wonder how he could see this type of relationship as anything other than a one-way street opposite the give-and-take principle, telling the Christian opposition to accept indefinite marginalization.

After being forced to send the Bishops' Council a "strong warning," Sfeir was further forced to ask Qornet Shehwan members to accept a "waiting list" status while the big electoral coalitions vacated a seat here or there. These coalitions, which "borrow" a Christian candidate from the opposition and sacrifice one of their own, can satisfy the Christians neither ethically nor substantially.

Moreover, Saad Hariri's Future Movement cannot repeat its sacrifice of Ghattas Khoury for the controversial Solange Gemayel in Beirut by sacrificing Jean Obeid in Tripoli without risking serious a Sunni backlash.

Despite asserting their neutrality in the elections, it was thanks to France, the U.S. and even Saudi Arabia that Lebanon was "cornered by time limits" to accept the 2000 electoral law designed to keep pro-Syrian politicians in power.

This policy seemed puzzling.

FPM hinges pact with opposition to agreement on election lists

Aoun demands overhaul of political and economic institutions as price for unity

By Majdoline Hatoum , Daily Star , May 21, 2005

Related articles :

• Aoun: Lebanon political class corrupt
• Lawyer calls to boycott polls to spur Geagea's release

BEIRUT: Lebanon's increasingly confusing electoral scene took another dramatic turn with the news that Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Party will break away from its opposition allies unless they reach an agreement on sharing parliamentary lists in the next 24 hours.

It is understood the FPM is demanding the opposition declare it will overhaul Lebanon's political and economic institutions after the elections as its price for fighting the election as a united front.

FPM politburo member Hikmat Deeb said: "We are waiting for them to decide on issues we have labeled important for us, such as preparing an agenda for political reform to be able to hold an alliance, and that should happen within the next 24 hours."

"If that doesn't happen we will announce our electoral lists in the next 48 hours," he added.

Lebanon's Ex-PM Won't Run in Elections

BEIRUT, Lebanon - Lebanon's pro-Syrian former prime minister said Friday he will not run or vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections to protest the country's election law and what he called "corruption along all levels."

Former Prime Minister Omar Karami said said he was also protesting what he sees as the "appointment" rather than the election of the legislature's new 128 members, apparently referring to to the way large factions and old foes were forging election alliances that could deny fair competition among candidates.

Pro-Syrian politicians are facing an uphill battle against powerful anti-Syrian factions that have recently joined together to try to end the pro-Syrian sway over the legislature.

COMMENTARY

Michael Hudson Speaks at AUB

Source : Lebanese Political Journal

Want to know something new about the Middle East?
Don't ask Michael Hudson.

Related article : U.S. academic believes Syria still influential in Lebanon

Over the course of an hour and a half address to graduate students at the American University of Beirut, Hudson repeated many claims that bloggers are overly familiar with.

Hudson met Bashar Assad during his Damascus visit, and it seems Bashar has the Clinton effect: you just want to believe him. However, Hudson was not totally taken in by Bashar's gleaming eyes and smile. He might believe an old guard exists, but when Bashar told Hudson that he was not getting enough credit for releasing political prisoners, Hudson said he mentioned the names of some of the people still incarcerated.

Hudson noted that through the 70s scholars examined the Middle East through Modernization Theory, mukhabarat states, and militarization. They did not examine civil society, Islamic fundamentalism, or incipient impetus for political reform. The dynamic changed in the early 80s, and he mentioned that he had written about the possibility of democratization in 1986.

Strangely, Hudson thinks reform can occur within totalitarian Middle East dictatorships because the children of the dictators were educated abroad and "have picked up the virus of liberalism." He continually mentioned Bashar's British education, but also noted the myriad places in which this did not happen. The history of Westernized children sparking reform his short (I can only think of the Libya and Bahrain).

He claims he was initially far too excited by democratic opportunities in Algeria, Yemen, and elsewhere and has now tempered his thinking.
Hudson mentioned that he might be naive, but that he thinks reform is going to continue happening in the Middle East citing Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. However, he took issue with the Bush Administration's claim that the Iraq War started all of this.

Hudson made mention of the Bush campaign in Iraq saying that democracy in Iraq is not such a bad idea, if only it could be implemented.
"The Kiss of Death" phenomenon was repeated, which is Hudson's belief that American support of politicians and local ideas means indigenous abhorrence of those very same things.
Hudson opened for questions and was immediately challenged.