DUBAI, (Reuters) - Lebanon bond investors could see their holdings slashed by 75%, Goldman Sachs said, should the newly formed government solve losses in the financial system, embark on credible reforms and unlock funding from the International Monetary Fund. Lebanon defaulted on its international debt in March 2020, after years of political upheaval and economic mismanagement left it unable to service a debt burden that Goldman Sachs estimated at over 300% of GDP at current market exchange rates. After a year of political deadlock, a new government was formed this month under Sunni Muslim tycoon Najib Mikati, with three-quarters of the population now in poverty after one of the deepest depressions of modern history. "The ratification by parliament of the Mikati government on Monday represents the first step on a long and narrow path to Lebanese economic recovery that is likely to be fraught with difficulty and risk", Goldman said in a report this week.

The bank's debt recovery projections are based on assumptions including a strengthening of the Lebanese pound to 8,000 to the dollar in the medium term from around 14,500 in the parallel market currently, as well as negative or low real interest rates on public debt, and certain levels of economic growth and fiscal balance adjustment. "Given these assumptions and constraints, we arrive at an estimated haircut to the nominal value of the current Eurobonds of 75%", it said. Resolving losses in the financial system will be the government's first challenge, Goldman said, estimating foreign exchange liabilities in the banking sector at $70 billion, against $13 billion in usable reserves at the central bank.

By NAJIA HOUSSARI -- arabnews.com -- BEIRUT: Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun congratulated King Salman on the occasion of Saudi National Day, praising his efforts to “strengthen Arab solidarity, which is what we need the most today to address the challenges facing our region and the world.” Aoun stressed “the brotherly ties between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, since the era of King Abdulaziz Al-Saud, who laid the foundation for unity and convergence, the values that your Kingdom has remained committed to toward our nation and people.” His warm comments follow recent statements where Aoun expressed his rejection “for Lebanon to be the source of anything that might offend or harm Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries,” after the Saudi government’s decision in April to ban the entry of Lebanese fruits and vegetables into or via its territories over drug smuggling. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government obtained the parliament’s vote of confidence this week, based on the ministerial statement that stressed the need to “promote the Lebanese relations with Arab countries, activate the historic cooperation among Arab countries and urge Arab brothers to support the Lebanese during these difficult times.”

Aoun is expected to deliver via video a speech on Friday at the UN General Assembly in New York from his office, to express “Lebanon’s position regarding local and regional developments as well as the topics on the session’s agenda.” Mikati headed to Paris on Thursday, his first official visit after the formation of the government, and is expected to meet French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday. France exerted intense pressure on Lebanese politicians to form a government in line with the initiative launched by Macron in the aftermath of the Beirut blast, which rocked the country last August. On the eve of Mikati’s visit to the French capital, the International Support Group for Lebanon welcomed the formation of the new government and the parliament’s vote of confidence in the administration and its program.

 تفصيلٌ أن نكونَ مع هذه الحكومة، وتحصيلٌ حاصِلٌ أن نكونَ ضِدَّها. فتَمنّي النجاحِ لها في معالجةِ القضايا اليوميّةِ، الَّلهُمَّ عبرَ المؤسّساتِ الشرعيّة، لا يَحجُبُ جُنوحَ أكثريَّتِها نحو المحورِ السوريِّ/الإيرانيِّ رغمَ التَبنّي الفرنسيِّ الجانِحِ نسبيًّا هو أيضًا، ورغمَ خصوصيّةِ تقديرِنا رئيسَها وبعضَ وزرائِها الأكفياء تقنيًّا وأخلاقيًّا. إنَّ اعتبارَ هذه الحكومةَ "مجلسَ إدارةِ" الأزمةِ الاقتصاديّةِ والمعيشيّة، لا يَحولُ دونَ اعتبارِها أساسًا "مجلسَ حكمِ" المنظومةِ السياسيّةِ والعسكريّةِ الشرعيّةِ وغيرِ الشرعيّةِ التي انْقلبَت على مفهومِ لبنان ووجودِه ودورِه وهويّتِه، واتّبعَت سياسةً تَقصَّدَت إفقارَ الشعبِ وإفلاسَ البلد.

بمنأى عن ذلك، مُنِحَت هذه الحكومةُ فترةَ سَماحٍ، لكنّها أخفَقَت في استخدامِها، إذ اعْتكَفَت منذ يومِها الأوّل عن مواجهةِ ظواهرَ تَـمُسُّ دستورَ لبنان وسيادتَه، وحدودَه شرقًا وجنوبًا، وتنالُ من استقلاليّةِ قضائِه. هكذا فقَدت ثقةَ الشعبِ قبلَ نَيلِ ثقةِ المجلسِ النيابيِّ المختصَرِ فيها، وسَقطَ الفارقُ بين السلطتَين التشريعيّةِ والتنفيذيّة، وبين المحاسِبِ والمحاسَب.

منذ سنواتٍ والبياناتُ الوزاريّةُ ليست خريطةَ طريقِ الحكومات، إنّما مجرّدُ مَـمرٍّ تقليديِّ لتبريرِ التصويتِ على الثقة. والعَجَلةُ الاستثنائيّةُ التي تُلِيَ فيها البيانُ الوزاريُّ ونوقشَ وصُوِّتَ عليه، يؤكّدُ أنَّ الثقةَ معلَّبةٌ مثلُها مثلُ التأليف. ليس في هذا البيانِ الوزاريِّ سيفٌ. وليس فيه روحُ شعب. وليس فيه روزنامةٌ تنفيذيّة. وليس فيه ثقافةٌ سوى نِصفِ سطرٍ من أصلِ تسعِ صفحات. غَلبَت على البيانِ الوعودُ على الالتزاماتِ، والمساوماتُ اللغويّةُ على وضوحِ المواقف. جاء البيانُ سَرْديًّا في وطنٍ سَئِمَ الحَكواتيّين، وتقليديًّا في ظرفٍ استثنائيّ، ومُسرِفًا في مواضيعِه كأنَّ الحكومةَ باقيةٌ دهرًا.

ارفعوا ايديكم عن القضاء لا تجريح ولا تهديد وحتى لا مديح، فتجاذب القضاء يضعفه وضعفه ينعكس ضعفاً امنياً