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by Alex Lockie - businessinsider.com - President Donald Trump dealt Tehran a huge blow by withdrawing the US from the Iran nuclear deal, and now Iran's troubled regime has few face-saving options besides a full-on confrontation. Between the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria, Iran is being backed into a corner. Iran is not yet free to pursue nuclear weapons. It's still in the deal with the remaining members that did not withdraw. But Trump's secondary sanctions on anyone doing business with Iran, and Iran's failing economy, make the prospects for the survival of the deal dim. "I think the key question we are now facing is what impact the American announcement will have on continuing European and Asian engagement with Iran," Malcolm Chalmers, the Royal United Services Institute's deputy director general, told Business Insider. Iran gave up its nuclear ambitions to get sanctions relief in the form of the deal, but that relief has now been blocked. Trump's constant down talking of the deal led investors to hesitate before investing in Iran. Combined with an "unfriendly" investment climate in the country, the cash influx never really materialized, said Chalmers.

The one thing that worked well for Iran under the deal was an increase in oil sales, and now that's come under threat too. "Secondary sanctions will penalize any foreign companies that do business with Iran," said Chalmers. Effectively, the US has ruined the deal for Iran with sanctions and threats of sanctions, so Iran will probably pull out sooner or later, said Chalmers. The Trump administration, as David Sanger and David Kirkpatrick wrote in The New York Times, is betting that Iran lacks the economic strength to confront the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. But, as they point out, America's allies warn that is a dangerous miscalculation that could lead to war.

Israel is beating up Iran quietly; the US is beating them up loudly

Iran's problems don't start and end with the deal. The US and Israel assess that Iran is trying to import a huge number of fighters and missiles to Syria and Lebanon to surround and eventually attack the Jewish state. Israel refuses to accept this, and has allegedly undertaken a series of airstrikes that increasingly target Iranian military officials. Some of the airstrikes have been nothing short of spectacular, with hundreds of Iranian rockets and dozens of fighters reportedly dying. But Israel has kept quiet and not confirmed any specific strikes so far. "There has been almost no gloating by Israel for the [recent] attack... despite indications that the attack has succeeded in one respect by hitting quite serious targets," Jonathan Schanzer, Vice President of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Business Insider. Iran has vowed to retaliate, but they have few options. "The highest priority of Iranians is how to take revenge," former Mossad director and retired Major General Danny Yatom told Business Insider. "On those attacks that are related [to Israel] they will not send us flowers, they will try to send something else." Iran can "either fire missiles from where they're deployed now," within Syria and Lebanon, or "they can use Hezbollah to ambush our forces over the border," said Yatom, referring to the Shia group prominent in Lebanese politics and designated by the US and Israel as a terror group. Furthermore, the US has announced its intentions to support Israel in pushing back Iran and said it would come to Israel's defense. So short of attacking Israel outright in a way that could easily cause an all-out war that would see many Iranians die, Tehran has few options.

No diplomatic or economic recourse, only missiles

"It's a no brainer for almost all European companies" on whether to do business with the US or with Iran, according to Chalmers. The US is the world's most powerful military and economy. Iran's Rial recently tanked in value to about 60,000 to the dollar. Meanwhile, Iran cracked down on the financial liberties of its citizens, barring them from holding more than $10,000 in foreign currency. Now with the US moving to freeze Iran's Central Bank, the country's economy, already savaged by sanctions, looks particularly weak. Iran has powerful influence within the Shia Islamic world, but that's a small world already being pushed by Iran to pressure Israel. In Iran, the clerical regime frequently engages in chants of "death to America" and "death to Israel," but they have no practical means of achieving these goals. With a hard line staked out by the leaders of the Islamic Republic, and their backs against the wall, some form of warfare may be their only option.

By Caitlin Antonios -- newuniversity.org - If comedians are the new rock stars, then Nemr might just be Lebanon’s Mick Jagger. The Lebanese-American stand-up comedian has made waves in the Middle East for his hilarious, biting and thoughtful comedy. He is the only Arab comic to have a special out in the U.S.: “No Bombing in Beirut,” which premiered in 2017 on Showtime. Filmed in both Lebanon and America, the special cuts from location to location to emphasize the fundamental truth that people from all different backgrounds and cultures can laugh at the same things. His new show, “Love Isn’t the Answer,” (an intentionally provocative title) can be seen at Irvine Improv on May 10 and centers on the philosophy that love makes people complacent and hate is what spurs progress and change. “Love isn’t the answer,” said Nemr in an interview. “The answer is actually hate! Everyone is saying ‘love trumps hate’ but that doesn’t create change. Love can be terrible in the wrong hands and hate can be great in the right hands.” For Nemr, people must truly hate a situation for them to do something about it and create change for the better. While some may not agree with that philosophy, as long as they’re laughing at his shows, he’s done his job.

His love for comedy emerged at a young age after his family moved from Lebanon to San Diego during the Lebanese Civil War. Listening to old comedy shows made him realize the power of being able to make someone laugh. When Nemr’s family moved back to Lebanon in 1993, he struggled to adjust. Sometimes there was no electricity, no hot water — it certainly wasn’t America. After getting over his initial culture shock, Nemr says he fell in love with Lebanon and its people, which is why it became so important for him to bring a Lebanese perspective to a wider audience. “I fell fiercely in love with the country,” said Nemr. “We have so much history and culture, going back to the Phoenicians, and we’ve learned so much that needs to be shared with the rest of the world.” That perspective, Nemr says, is often drowned out by the media’s narrative of terrorism and chaos which he believes is the responsibility of other Arabs to change in the United States. For him, comedy is the key. After graduating from the American University of Beirut (AUB) in 2005 as a finance major with a minor in philosophy, and seeing a resurgence in war the following year, Nemr began working to build a foundation for comedians. Arab culture tends to steer away from the arts and focus on more “stable” jobs like becoming a doctor or an engineer. First, Nemr had to prove that comedy was actually a business that could be a concrete way to make a living. Then he had to show people there was a market for comedy in the Middle East and comics were worth hiring. Finally, and most importantly, there had to be talent. While in America, becoming a comedian and getting on stage to perform stand-up can be facilitated, Nemr was facing the unprecedented challenge of creating a space for comedy in a country and culture that seemed initially hesitant to embrace it. “It takes a long time and it’s going to take a long time before there is really a thriving comedy scene,” said Nemr. “I just helped build the infrastructure.”

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