By MOHAMED CHEBARO — arabnews.com — Poverty-stricken Lebanese have welcomed the festivities of Easter and the end of Ramadan with empty pockets, empty fridges and empty promises from politicians. They now hope that the same political elite that have supervised the bankruptcy of their country will not be returned at the May 15 general election. However, the opposition voices look too splintered to have any serious success that could challenge the clout of the traditional political elite. I am therefore minded to think that Lebanon’s starving constituents would easily sell their votes for crumbs and reelect the same corrupt politicians, whom I expect to have an even bigger majority in the next parliament.

Lebanon these days is living a schizophrenic existence. On the one hand, it is life as normal for the top 10 to 20 percent of society, whose financial means have not been dented by the country’s economic collapse, its default on foreign debt or the decision of the state to apply capital control. On the other, one cannot fail to notice the beggars that line many intersections and the streets of city centers as the country prepares for a general election that could change the face of the Lebanese Republic for good.

Independent candidates and opposition forces that emerged after the Oct. 17, 2019, uprising and those who have called for accountability after the Beirut port explosion are busy preparing to dislodge the so-called corrupt political class that has sucked dry the country’s national assets, wealth, economic potential and even people’s life savings. Begging is not strange in any country suffering economic hardship, but in recent years the number of those in desperate need in Lebanon has multiplied. Among them are the visibly desperate Syrian refugees that have resorted, along with many Lebanese, to begging. Some have even fallen victim to organized begging gangs. But what is more dangerous is the invisible poverty that has struck the majority of Lebanese families, making the lucky among them even more dependent on remittances from relatives working in the Gulf countries and beyond, while others are increasingly dependent on the charitable programs of political parties that offer handouts, but always at a price of course.

Those in need have even resorted to creative ways of earning a few crumbs. In Beirut, I was approached a few times by people who politely introduced themselves before asking for any cash that could help them pay their rent, buy their medicine or whatever contribution in pennies that might help them. The organs of the state have long since ceased catering for these people’s basic needs, amid the total paralysis of the Hezbollah-controlled government. These same individuals were previously members of a buoyant Lebanese middle or lower middle class, but they lost their safety net due to the worsening economic situation. Despite all of the above, Lebanese streets from north to south are littered with election campaign banners promoting more than 300 competing lists of candidates, each promising salvation, change and to rid the country of its mafia-like corrupt political elite that has dominated the country’s affairs since the end of the civil war in 1990. The members of this elite are seen as responsible for the failure of the state due to the mismanagement that orchestrated the siphoning of billions of dollars from the state’s coffers, leaving the country’s infrastructure beyond repair and its people on the brink — to the point that the World Bank has described the scale of the Lebanese economic collapse as one of the worst three economic crises witnessed globally in the last 150 years.

On the face of it, the campaigning by more than 1,200 candidates is a healthy sign, but those tasked with overseeing the vote fear for the fairness of the process amid the increased levels of poverty, meaning the election looks increasingly unlikely to dent the status quo. The poverty factor is also likely to work in favor of those parties that have long preyed on a clientelist relationship with a polarized electorate on religious, sectarian and tribal grounds. Vote buying is not strange to Lebanon. Amid a failed economy, a depreciated Lebanese lira and a needy and impoverished population, the likelihood of vote buying is on the mind of the authorities. Retired judge Nadim Abdel-Malek, the 80-year-old head of Lebanon’s election commission, admitted recently that violations are likely, with ballots liable to be sold, meaning the candidates with greater means will be at a huge advantage. Food distribution was noticeable during the month of Ramadan, with some political parties and groups attempting to ensure dissent remains at zero by providing food, fuel and other basic needs in return for votes. Abdel-Malek said: “This is undoubtedly going to play a role. There are a lot of people who are going to sell their vote. These factors are going to hit the integrity and transparency of the elections.”

The Lebanese people have never, despite decades of instability, faced as tough a predicament as they do today. Many of the so-called opposition to the current discredited ruling elite are pledging to usher in a new era of governance in Lebanon, but the problem remains that this month’s elections will be fought according to the 2018 electoral law that is in favor of the ruling alliances dominated by Hezbollah. The lack of any credible Sunni bloc that is able to fill the vacuum left by the exit from the political arena of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his Future Movement is likely to result in a parliament controlled by forces loyal to Iran and Syria, the so-called axis of resistance. One can only hope that the parliament of 2022, 100 years after the creation of the Lebanese Republic, will not oversee the official end of a nation state based on the perhaps imperfect tenets of tolerance, freedom of speech and neutrality in favor of permanent chaos and the official downgrading of the country into a failed state.

Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist, media consultant and trainer with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.