Black Friday reveals Lebanese concern about political crisis

by arabnews.com -- NAJIA HOUSSARI -- BEIRUT: “Every day is Black Friday in Lebanon.” The term Black Friday in the Lebanese vocabulary has a different meaning when it comes to purchasing power. Ghada Buqshan, a Lebanese woman, told Arab News that she was among the first to go shopping on Black Friday in order to buy clothes at reduced prices for her children. She said: “I was shocked to see that the shops have manipulated the concept of Black Friday and reduced the prices of selected products only, while keeping the rest of their stock at normal prices.” “When I go shopping on this particular day, it is because my purchasing power has declined due to a decline in my husband’s work, so I try to save money, but the joy of shopping is always there.” The markets in Beirut are not showing unusual trading signals even though the Beirut Traders Association has made Black Friday last for three days in an attempt to attract the largest number of shoppers. Ahmed, the owner of one of the best women’s clothing stores in Beirut, said: “There are many reasons for the decline in sales. Whenever the political situation in Lebanon worsens, the markets freeze.” “In addition to that,” he continued, “Black Friday coincides with the end of the month when families have spent most of their monthly salaries without leaving much to be spent on luxuries. Clothes have become a luxury though food, drink, rent and school fees are all priorities.”

The manager of another store, who wanted to remain anonymous, pointed out, “The purchasing power in Lebanon is declining year by year.” He explained that the store’s customers were mostly people on minimum wage as well as affluent individuals. He added: “Lebanese customers buy specific items which have reduced prices, while non-Lebanese customers spend large sums.” A Saudi woman who was carrying many shopping bags seemed to be in a hurry while shopping in Beirut with her daughter said the market atmosphere was good and the prices were “very reasonable.” However, Nada Hamed, a Lebanese woman who will soon travel to Australia, said: “My purchasing power is like everyone else’s; it gets affected by crises, causing my desire to shop to decrease.” Protests against the deteriorating economic situation were translated by activists, who started petitions on social media websites to call for a demonstration in the vicinity of the National Museum of Beirut, During the demonstration, people carried banners that condemned “the quota in power” and “corruption.” They also chanted against senior officials and “the ruling mafia.”

Economist Ghazi Wazni explained that the decline in demand on Black Friday “reflects the great concern leading people to refrain from making purchases amid this ambiguous political situation which has been a deadlock.” He added: “This year, economic activity dropped by 25 percent, and the trade sector was counting on the two months of November and December, during which several holidays and events take place, making them represent 30 percent of the economic activity in Lebanon. However, it seems the political crisis associated with not forming a government has been worrying people.” Wazni pointed out that more than 35 percent of the Lebanese people are poor, while the middle class does not exceed 40 percent of the population and affluent families represent 25 percent. “It seems the political crisis has created economic stagnation and sent many establishments into bankruptcy, which has led to economic and political suffering of 75 percent of the Lebanese population,” he added. The formation of the new government is expected to lead to the implementation of reforms. However, the formation of the new government is still pending due to the existing political problems.

Lebanon's economy faces stark choice: Reform or collapse

This article does not necessarily represent khazen.org opinion 

by Bassem Mroue - Associated Press -- BEIRUT – Lebanon is marking 75 years of independence with a military parade Thursday in Beirut, but many anxious Lebanese feel they have little to celebrate: the country's corruption-plagued economy is dangerously close to collapse and political bickering over shares in a new Cabinet is threatening to scuttle pledges worth $11 billion by international donors. The World Bank issued a stark warning last week, with one official saying that unless a government is formed soon to carry out badly needed reforms, "the Lebanon we know will fizzle away." It's been more than six months since Lebanon held its first national elections in nine years but the prime minister-designate, Saad Hariri, still hasn't formed a government to undertake the reforms necessary to unlock the donors' funds. The vote, in which the Shiite militant Hezbollah group and its allies made significant gains, did little to pull Lebanon out of a political impasse. Anger against politicians' apparent indifference, worsening public services and distress over down-spiraling finances and gloomy predictions are building up. Last Friday, heavy rains caused Beirut's sewage system to burst, turning the city's famous Mediterranean coastal avenue into a river of filthy, foul-smelling black water that engulfed motorists along the otherwise scenic route. On the same day, the military had closed a main artery for drills ahead of the Independence Day parade, paralyzing traffic for hours. Flights from Beirut's international airport were missed and a woman reportedly went into labor on the road. The army later apologized. Despite a population of over 4.5 million that is among the most educated in the region, Lebanon still has a primitive infrastructure, widespread electricity and water cuts and a longstanding waste crisis that over the past few years saw trash piling in the streets for weeks at a time. "There is no independence (to celebrate) because corruption is eating us up," said Mohammed al-Rayyes, a shop owner in Beirut's Hamra district. "The coming days are going to be very difficult."

The tiny Arab country has coped with multiple political and security crises over the past decades and also suffered from the seven-year civil war in neighboring Syria, a conflict that has occasionally spilled over the border and brought more than 1 million refugees into Lebanon, putting even more pressure on its dysfunctional infrastructure. A soaring debt of $84 billion and unemployment believed to be around 36 percent are compounding concerns that the country will finally cave in. "It is a shame because so much time is being wasted," Ferid Belhaj, the World Bank's vice president for the Middle East and North Africa, said during a meeting with a group of journalists last week. For years, he said, Lebanese officials have been promising to work on solving the electricity crisis, which costs the country about $2 billion a year and has been the main factor in accumulating Lebanon's debt. Of immediate concern is the future of $11 billion in loans and grants pledged by international donors at a meeting in Paris in April, which Lebanon risks losing if no Cabinet is in place soon to unlock the funds and approve reforms that were set as conditions by the donors and which have been delayed for years. In April, Hariri pledged to reduce the budget deficit by 5 percent over the next five years.

The crisis has prompted some Lebanese to change their deposits from the local currency, which has been pegged to the U.S. dollars since 1997, to U.S. dollars for fear the Lebanese pound might collapse. Riad Salameh, the Central Bank governor, has been repeatedly reassuring the markets, saying the local currency is stable. Mohamad Shukeir, head of the Chambers of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture, told the local MTV station that 2,200 businesses closed doors so far this year. Aftershocks of rising tension between the United States and Iran are also felt in Beirut, with Tehran ally Hezbollah being blamed by opponents for preventing Western-backed Hariri from forming a national unity government. Hezbollah has demanded that six Sunni lawmakers allied with the Shiite group and opposed to Hariri be included in his Cabinet — something that Hariri, the country's top Sunni Muslim leader, categorically rejects. Despite the dangers, political bickering is not likely to end soon and the debt is mounting. "The level of debt that we have in Lebanon requires us to act very quickly," said economist Kamel Wazne. "Any delay will expose us to financial collapse." Belhaj of the World Bank said that reforms would act as a buffer to the crisis. But in their absence, "the crisis can be very nasty." "If we don't go about these reforms fast, the Lebanon that we know will fizzle away," he said.

Lebanese foreign ministry: will stand by Carlos Ghosn

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanon’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday it would stand by Nissan and Renault boss Carlos Ghosn, who is of Lebanese descent and holds Lebanese citizenship, a day after his arrest in Japan on financial misconduct allegations. Ghosn, one of the best-known leaders in the car industry, was arrested after Nissan Motor Co said he had engaged in wrongdoing, including personal use of company money and under-reporting how much he was earning for years. The Japanese carmaker plans to remove him as chairman this week. France moved on Tuesday to oust Ghosn from the helm of Renault but sought to defend the carmaker’s alliance with Nissan, which has been rocked by the scandal..Lebanon’s caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil has asked the ambassador in Tokyo to meet with Ghosn and follow up on the case, the ministry said in a statement. “Carlos Ghosn is a Lebanese citizen who represents one of the Lebanese successes abroad and the Lebanese foreign ministry will stand by him in his adversity to ensure he gets a fair trial,” it said. Ghosn, who has Lebanese roots, was born in Brazil and is also French citizen

After Khashoggi murder, some Saudi royals turn against crown prince

this article dpes not necessarily represent khazen.org opinion 

by cnbc.com -- Amid international uproar over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, some members of Saudi Arabia's ruling family are agitating to prevent Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman from becoming king, three sources close to the royal court said. Dozens of princes and cousins from powerful branches of the Al Saud family want to see a change in the line of succession but would not act while King Salman – the crown prince's 82-year-old father – is still alive, the sources said. They recognize that the king is unlikely to turn against his favorite son, known in the West as MbS. Rather, they are discussing the possibility with other family members that after the king's death, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, 76, a younger full brother of King Salman and uncle of the crown prince, could take the throne, according to the sources. Prince Ahmed, King Salman's only surviving full brother, would have the support of family members, the security apparatus and some Western powers, one of the Saudi sources said.

Prince Ahmed returned to Riyadh in October after 2-1/2 months abroad. During the trip, he appeared to criticize the Saudi leadership while responding to protesters outside a London residence chanting for the downfall of the Al Saud dynasty. He was one of only three people on the Allegiance Council, made up of the ruling family's senior members, who opposed MbS becoming crown prince in 2017, two Saudi sources said at the time. Neither Prince Ahmed nor his representatives could be reached for comment. Officials in Riyadh did not immediately respond to requests from Reuters for comment on succession issues. The House of Saud is made up of hundreds of princes. Unlike typical European monarchies, there is no automatic succession from father to eldest son. Instead the kingdoms tribal traditions dictate that the king and senior family members from each branch select the heir they consider fittest to lead. Senior U.S. officials have indicated to Saudi advisers in recent weeks that they would support Prince Ahmed, who was deputy interior minister for nearly 40 years, as a potential successor, according to Saudi sources with direct knowledge of the consultations. These Saudi sources said they were confident that Prince Ahmed would not change or reverse any of the social or economic reforms enacted by MbS, would honor existing military procurement contracts and would restore the unity of the family. One senior U.S. official said the White House is in no hurry to distance itself from the crown prince despite pressure from lawmakers and the CIAs assessment that MbS ordered Khashoggis murder, though that could change once Trump gets a definitive report on the killing from the intelligence community. The official also said the White House saw it as noteworthy that King Salman seemed to stand by his son in a speech in Riyadh on Monday and made no direct reference to Khashoggi's killing, except to praise the Saudi public prosecutor. The White House declined to comment.

The Saudi sources said U.S. officials had cooled on MbS not only because of his suspected role in the murder of Khashoggi. They are also rankled because the crown prince recently urged the Saudi defense ministry to explore alternative weapons supplies from Russia, the sources said. In a letter dated May 15, seen by Reuters, the crown prince requested that the defence ministry "focus on purchasing weapon systems and equipment in the most pressing fields" and get training on them, including the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system. Neither the Russian defence ministry nor officials in Riyadh immediately responded to Reuters requests for comment.

U.S. ROLE KEY

The brutal killing of Khashoggi, a prominent critic of the crown prince, in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul last month has drawn global condemnation, including from many politicians and officials in the United States, a key Saudi ally. The CIA believes the crown prince ordered the killing, according to U.S. sources familiar with the assessment. Saudi Arabia's public prosecutor has said the crown prince knew nothing of the killing. The international uproar has piled pressure on a royal court already divided over 33-year-old Prince Mohammed's rapid rise to power. Since his ascension, the prince has gained popular support with high-profile social and economic reforms including ending a ban on women driving and opening cinemas in the conservative kingdom. His reforms have been accompanied by a crackdown on dissent, a purge of top royals and businessmen on corruption charges, and a costly war in Yemen. He has also marginalized senior members of the royal family and consolidated control over Saudis security and intelligence agencies. He first ousted then-powerful crown prince and interior minister Mohammed bin Nayef (MbN), 59, in June 2017. Then he removed Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, 65, son of the late King Abdullah, as head of the National Guard and detained him as part of an anti-corruption campaign.

Some 30 other princes were also arrested, mistreated, humiliated and stripped of their wealth, even as MbS splashed out on palaces, a $500 million yacht, and set a new record in the international art market with the purchase of a painting by Italian Renaissance engineer and painter Leonardo Da Vinci. The entire House of Saud has emerged weakened as a result. According to one well-placed Saudi source, many princes from senior circles in the family believe a change in the line of succession "would not provoke any resistance from the security or intelligence bodies he controls" because of their loyalty to the wider family. "They (the security apparatus) will follow any consensus reached by the family." Officials in Riyadh did not respond to a request for comment. The United States, a key ally in economic and security terms, is likely to be a determining factor in how matters unfold in Saudi Arabia, the Saudi sources and diplomats say. President Donald Trump on Saturday called the CIA assessment that MbS ordered Khashoggi's killing "very premature" but "possible", and said he would receive a complete report on the case on Tuesday. Trump and his son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner have cultivated deep personal relationships with the crown prince. One Saudi insider said MbS feels he still has their support and is willing to "roll some heads to appease the U.S." But Trump and top administration officials have said Saudi officials should be held to account for any involvement in Khashoggis death and have imposed sanctions on 17 Saudis for their alleged role including one of MbS's closest aides. U.S. lawmakers are meanwhile pushing legislation to punish Riyadh for the killing, and both Republican and Democratic senators have urged Trump to get tough on the crown prince. King Salman, 82, is aware of the consequences of a major clash with the United States and the possibility that Congress could try to freeze Saudi assets. Those who have met the king recently say he appeared to be in denial about the role of MbS in what happened, believing there to be a conspiracy against the kingdom. But they added that he looked burdened and worried.

ALLEGIANCE COUNCIL

When the king dies or is no longer be able to rule, the 34-member Allegiance Council, a body representing each line of the ruling family to lend legitimacy to succession decisions, would not automatically declare MbS the new king. Even as crown prince, MbS would still need the council to ratify his ascension, one of the three Saudi sources said. While the council accepted King Salman's wish to make MbS crown prince, it would not necessarily accept MbS becoming king when his father dies, especially given that he sought to marginalise council members. Officials in Riyadh did not respond to a request for comment. The Saudi sources say MbS has destroyed the institutional pillars of nearly a century of Al Saud rule: the family, the clerics, the tribes and the merchant families. They say this is seen inside the family as destabilising. Despite the controversy over Khashoggi's killing, MbS is continuing to pursue his agenda. Some insiders believe he built his father a new but remote Red Sea palace in Sharma, at the Neom City development site -- thrown up in a record one year at a cost of $2 billion -- as a gilded cage for his retirement. The site is isolated, the closest city of Tabouk more than 100 km (60 miles) away. Residence there would keep the king out of the loop on most affairs of state, one of the sources close to the royal family said. Officials in Riyadh did not respond to a request for comment.

Innovators were acknowleged by BLC Bank during its Brilliant Lebanese Awards

by annahar.com -- BEIRUT: In a night full of aspiration and inspiration, Casino du Liban hosted Thursday the seventh edition of the Brilliant Lebanese Awards organized by BLC Bank. The stage was awash Technicolor light, as the dazzling singer Nawal Zoghbi made her appearance. Diners at the Brilliant Lebanese Awards sat rapt attention as Zoghbi impressed everyone with her famous quivering alto. “The Brilliant Lebanese Awards is an opportunity to highlight the achievements of successful innovators and for them to be role models to others. The success of this annual ceremony is a proof of the Lebanese success of Lebanese talent” said Nadim Kassar, the chairman and general manager of BLC Bank.

After receiving numerous applications, a committee conducted an assessment and selected 12 candidates who made it to the final stage of the competition. The candidates went through several stages, during which they were offered guidance, advice, and training. The 12 shortlisted candidates waited nervously at their tables, listening to Zoghbi’s performance and trying not to look too obviously concerned about who would win. Awards were announced in groups; with first up “Tech innovation of the Year” category After the display of short videos presenting the competitors’ businesses, the first prize went to “Roadie Tuner” by Hassane Slaibi and the second prize went to “Synkers” by Audrey Nakad. “It’s an amazing feeling to be here tonight surrounded by successful innovators. You all know the hardships we face every day and we have all realized that one cannot move on unless he has faith in his idea,” said Slaibi. Slaibi is the CEO and co-founder of Band Industries, the company behind the Roadie automatic guitar tuners has forged a product that has changed the way people tune their guitars and is endorsed by music legends from bands like Queen, Drowning Pool and Tim McGraw among many others.

Additionally, the two winners for the Woman Entrepreneur of the Year category were Soumaya Merhi for Taqa in second place and Rania Abou Mosleh CEO recycling company AMB receiving first place. AMB is an expert in solid waste management promoting recycling by recovering and producing secondary raw materials and alternative resources. For Business of the Year category, Samer Tutunji clinched second place for Eshmoon Holistics and Joseph Akiki snagged first place for Screens International. In addition to that, Shady Saad won the People's Choice Award for his company Blue Sound. The award winners were granted a cash prize, amounting to $30,000 each for the individual categories: Woman Entrepreneur of the Year, Business of the Year, and Tech Innovation of the year. The winner of the People's Choice Award received a prize of $5,000. The selection was based on the financial performance of the company (30 percent), the creativity of their business (30 percent), its future sustainability (25 percent) and corporate social responsibility (15 percent). Selected finalists will also take part in TV interviews, a 90-minute Awards ceremony broadcasted live on LBCI including a full report about each finalist’s business. Finalists will also get more than a full month of social media coverage on all BLC Bank and We Initiative platforms. The winners will receive, in addition to all the above, a wide media exposure following their announcement. Kassar ended the night with a hopeful statement: “Who said we can't find a solution for our garbage crisis? The innovators today represent Lebanon's potential where people can shine and succeed,” he said.

Israeli geopolitical instability behind Lebanese financial crisis: economist

BEIRUT, (Xinhua) -- A Lebanese economist said Thursday that Israeli geopolitical instability stands behind Lebanese financial crises. "Any Israeli political instability will automatically affect the Lebanese financial market within seven months," Layal Mansour, a researcher at the American University of Beirut, told Xinhua in an exclusive interview. "Israel becomes an economic external variable in triggering a financial stress for Lebanon. In other terms, any geopolitical instability in Israel is translated economically in Lebanon through the financial sector," Mansour added. She reached this conclusion after a long research and study of a Financial Stress Index (FSI) her team has constructed on a monthly basis from 1998 to August 2018.

The FSI distinguishes between periods of market tranquility and periods of stress for Lebanon in a bid to study the impact of geopolitical instability on the Lebanese economy. "Economic recession is a general contraction of the overall activities such as consumption, production, investment and employment. A financial stress is an exaggerated behavior of stress, panic, uncertainty and insecurity by economic agents in the banking sector, the stock market and debt market, usually expressed in interest rate percentage change," Mansour explained. One of the results found by Mansour is that a financial stress will definitely cause an economic recession within one month while economic recession doesn't seem to cause a financial stress. She added that slower economic growth doesn't mean financial stress, but when it happens in parallel with an Israeli geopolitical instability, it will cause a financial crisis. "Economic recession makes Lebanon more vulnerable and is subject to trigger financial crises if any Israeli geopolitical instability occurs," said Mansour.