by ZAID M. BELBAGI — arabnews — For Lebanon — a country facing a perfect storm of hyperinflation, food shortages and an acute political crisis — the notion that circumstances could worsen seemed impossible to countenance. However, the Aug. 4 explosion of 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate in Beirut port proved that things could indeed get worse. Who was responsible for the storage of such quantities of the explosive will remain the subject of speculation, but it must not be allowed to distract from the very real challenges Lebanon faces. A country urgently in need of a bailout, it must look to its talented citizens, not its disconnected elites, for a way out. If anything, the explosion served to underscore the negligence of a nomenklatura that has always put its own financial interests ahead of those of the Lebanese people. As one of the world’s most indebted nations, which now finds itself without a government, the uphill struggle could not be steeper. Whereas disasters elsewhere in the world are met with a period of investigation, in Lebanon crises provide an excuse for those in power to entrench themselves further.

Lebanon’s political elite, unabated by popular anger, is jockeying to form another sham government of self-interest and avoid any sort of investigation. Perhaps more worryingly, an important audit of the country’s central bank is being all but averted. The institution that was complicit in the laundering of billions of dollars stands at the center both of what has plagued Lebanon and any attempt to find a resolution. The lackluster President Michel Aoun has once more deemed that his own political future, as a man of 85, supersedes that of his nation. Ignoring calls to resign, he and MPs must now agree on a new government — though, given the fate of Lebanon’s outgoing prime minister of just a few months, such efforts seem unlikely to succeed.

Moody’s last month downgraded Lebanon’s credit score to C, the lowest rating in its scale and the same as crisis-ravaged Venezuela. It is, therefore, not wholly surprising that 60,000 Lebanese signed a petition calling for the return of a French mandate. The former State of Greater Lebanon lasted for more than a quarter of a century and, under French occupation, the Lebanese did have a more streamlined post-Ottoman experience than others. Even though the French-imposed constitution of 1926 laid the foundations for the sectarian facets of the modern Lebanese political system, it is considered as a golden age by many. In fact, the invitation for the return of a colonial power is without precedence in the Arab world. The call was, nonetheless, reflective of the extent of the Lebanese despair.

The immediate visit to the streets of Beirut by French President Emmanuel Macron in the wake of the explosion, while Lebanese politicians remained bunkered in their strongholds and very much bewildered by the situation, gave impetus to the calls for a new mandate. However, the episode also highlighted the perennial issue in Lebanese politics of the country’s susceptibility to foreign inference. Lebanon’s challenges cannot be resolved overnight with the entrance of a foreign power — only a bailout can provide the lifeline the Lebanese people seek. In April, the outgoing finance minister had genuinely sought a bailout. Estimating total bank losses at $83 billion and a gaping hole $50 billion wide in the central bank, he sought an International Monetary Fund (IMF) lifeline. While Gulf money and intermittent foreign aid gave Lebanon a semblance of normality over the last two decades, the reality is that the only chance of breaking the impasse is through the IMF.

However, just as in 2018, when international donors committed to $11 billion of conditional pledges, the deal that was being discussed with the IMF was held hostage by the interests of Lebanon’s ruling elite. Any large tranche of aid will be conditional on the institution of significant reforms. But as Lebanon’s elite seeks once again to project a veneer of change through conjuring up a new government, it will shy away from meaningful reform. The international community must ensure that the right kind of political process is encouraged. The myopic view that politicians alone can solve Lebanon’s problems is outdated. No political system in which the parties look out for their own sectarian interests and are able to outgun the Lebanese military will be able to function effectively. The confessional-based system of the Taif Agreement is now redundant. Lebanon needs a government that will represent the best interests of the nation, not its warlords. The clientelism and corruption brought about by the sectarian political system will stifle any attempt at recovery following this month’s disaster. Damage estimated at $15 billion has created another challenge that Lebanon’s elite very clearly cannot overcome.

Though the concept of having a French arbiter oversee the Lebanese political system is appealing, a country that has seen the full spectrum of the ills of foreign intervention must find a more innovative way out. A Lebanese diaspora three times the population of the country, which uprooted in search of a better future, provides a talented grouping from which much of Lebanon’s regeneration can be funded and, importantly, governed. The parachuting in of international advisers will do little to wean Lebanon off the cycle of repeated domestic crises alleviated by sporadic aid. However, a concerted effort from its own countrymen, who have in many cases reached the top of their professions and become synonymous with success, provides a more credible solution. The likes of Jamil Baz, one of the most prominent economists focusing on sovereign debt, or Nasser Saidi, an authority on financial governance, can provide the skills to help Lebanon with its recovery.

The original call to end the French mandate was tied up in the winds of Arab nationalism and a genuine belief that the Lebanese could better govern themselves. The entire episode of Lebanese independence has been marked by tragedy, civil war and suffering. The events of Aug. 4 will not be an opportunity for rebirth if the episode is manipulated by kleptocratic elites. Lebanon’s salvation rests with an international bailout package — one that is conditional upon reform and that those who should effect change are the talented and independently minded experts of which Lebanon has many. • Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council. Twitter: @Moulay_Zaid