By Michael Karam – The National
Someone, I forget who, once told me “everything before the
‘but’ is meaningless”. Here’s the “before” bit: In the same week that
Lebanon ended its two year political impasse by nominating Michel Aoun,
an 81-year-old former army commander, as president and appointing Saad
Hariri, the Saudi-born billionaire businessman, as the next prime
minister, it welcomed two Apple legends – Steve Wozniak, the co-founder
of the US$250 billion tech company, and Tony Fadel, an American-Lebanese
whizz-kid who essentially invented the iPod.
Mr
Wozniak and Mr Fadel headlined the Lebanese Central Bank’s “Accelerate”
conference, billed rather optimistically as the biggest tech gathering
in the Mediterranean and themed under the strapline “Innovation:
Intrapreneurship v Entrepreneurship”. (If, like me, if you are wondering
what “intrapreneurship” is, Wikipedia defines it as “the act of
behaving like an entrepreneur while working within a large
organisation”, which sounds like every Lebanese public sector worker.)
So
the conference was held in a mood of optimism not felt in the country
since the ill-fated Bashir Gemayel was elected president in 1982. Which
was probably just as well. “Accelerate” would have been planned at least
a year ago if the conference organisers had to book such stellar names,
and it would have taken some of the shine off the three days had the
event tried to sell the dynamism of a country that after two years,
still couldn’t nominate a president.
As
it was, Messrs Wozniak and Fadel inspired everyone, delivering their
“nothing is impossible if you believe it can happen” shtick and it all
fitted in with the bullish mood. And yes, Lebanon does indeed have a
massive pool of talent that is aching to make its mark in a vibrant and
fast-paced global industry, but – and here is the “but” that negates
everything that has gone before – the reality is that Lebanon is still
poorly placed to milk this talent, because the state and its buddies in
the banking sector have consistently failed to create a genuine
business-friendly environment. It is a situation that doesn’t look like
changing any time soon, even though Mr Aoun is seen as the nation’s
saviour.
Diplomats
who visited Baabda Palace to congratulate Mr Aoun on his victory, have
said that as well as rooting out corruption and strengthening the state
institutions, he wants to fix the economy, but when asked politely just
how he was going to do the latter, the new head of state was apparently
unable to build on his initial soundbite.
To be fair, few Lebanese
leaders have done better, but to those Lebanon watchers who like me are
naive enough to still believe in details and concrete pledges, the
feeling is that once the celebrations are over, nothing much will
change. Sure, the real estate market might pick up and some of the Arab
tourists may return, but unless there is a seismic shift in how the
government works, sectors such as Lebanon’s nascent tech efforts are
unlikely to take off.
But
– and here’s a second “but” – if, as some of the more optimistic
businessmen have pointed out, Mr Aoun, who is admittedly the first head
of state since president Gemayel to control a sizeable parliamentary
bloc (he is the founder and former leader of the Free Patriotic
Movement) and prime minister Hariri really can put aside their
decade-long differences and work together, then there is every chance
that a strategy to revive the moribund economy may just materialise.
This
is because Mr Aoun’s supporters are mainly middle- class professionals
who have loyally supported the obstinate and often unpredictable former
army commander, even when he signed his infamous “understanding” with
Hizbollah in 2006. They will expect his technocrat ministers to deliver
the goods.
In the same vein, Mr Hariri, the son of the late former
prime minister Rafik Hariri, is trying to win back lost support within
Lebanon’s Sunni merchant class and his Future Movement has put
prosperity as a priority ever since it emerged as one of the triumphant
forces that led the 2005 Cedar Revolution.
Back
at the conference, the mood was about talent and potential. Mr Fadel
was convinced Lebanon is a thriving incubator for tech companies,
declaring that he was in Lebanon “to find great start-ups to help
because I can see that there are some good companies and talent here”.
Of that there is no doubt.
Michael Karam is a freelance writer who lives between Beirut and Brighton
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