BEIRUT, (Reuters) – Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies are likely to lose their majority in Lebanon’s parliament, three sources allied to the group said on Monday, in a major blow to the heavily armed faction that reflected widespread anger at ruling parties. Sunday’s election – the first since Lebanon’s financial collapse and the Beirut port blast of 2020 – also produced wins for the Saudi-aligned Lebanese Forces (LF), a Christian party, and reform-minded candidates across sects. Their breakthroughs, however, could fracture parliament into several camps and polarise it more sharply between Hezbollah’s allies and opponents. Those opponents are not currently united into a single bloc. The deadlock could derail reforms required to unlock support from the International Monetary Fund to ease Lebanon’s economic crisis and delay parliamentary decisions on a speaker, a premier to form a Cabinet, and a new president later this year.
Preliminary results indicate a reversal of Lebanon’s last election in 2018, when Hezbollah and its allies won 71 of parliament’s 128 seats, pulling Lebanon deeper into the orbit of Shi’ite-led Iran and away from Sunni-led Saudi Arabia. Sunday’s result could open the door for Riyadh to exercise greater sway in Beirut, long an arena of its rivalry with Tehran. There was no immediate comment from Saudi Arabia, but Iran on Monday said it respected the vote and had never intervened in Lebanon’s internal affairs. The United States, which has imposed sanctions on Hezbollah, welcomed the elections and encouraged politicians to recommit to economic reforms.
‘NATIONAL CELEBRATION’
The interior ministry has announced results for 12 of the 15 districts, but several parties said they would be submitting appeals. Political sources allied to Hezbollah had earlier said their preliminary counts showed it was improbable the party and its allies would secure more than 64 seats. Among the notable losses is top Hezbollah ally and deputy parliament speaker Elie Ferzli, 72, who lost the Christian Orthodox seat in West Beqaa, according to official results. Ferzli lost to a candidate backed by established Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, but Jumblatt’s list also lost a Sunni seat to independent candidate Yassin Yassin. “After two-and-a-half years of directly facing off in the streets against a government of injustice, finally, we’ve begun the journey to change in Lebanon. This is a national celebration!” Yassin told Reuters. Representatives of candidates sit together as a man casts his vote at a polling station during Lebanon’s parliamentary election in Zahle
Other startling losses include Hezbollah-allied Druze politician Talal Arslan, first elected in 1992. He lost his seat to newcomer Mark Daou, whose opposition list won a total of three seats. Independent candidate Elias Jradi snatched an Orthodox Christian seat from Assaad Hardan, a pro-Syria MP in Hezbollah’s traditional south Lebanon stronghold.
Firas Hamdan, a lawyer and activist, beat out Marwan Kheireddine, chairman of Lebanon’s AM Bank, one of many that restricted depositors’ access to savings due to a severe dollar shortage during the financial crisis. The LF said no single grouping had a majority, including Hezbollah, but put its own wins at 20 seats, up from 15 in 2018. That would allow it to overtake the Hezbollah-allied Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), the biggest Christian party in parliament since 2005.
Founded by President Michel Aoun, the FPM won up to 16 seats, a party official told Reuters, down from 18 in 2018. Their diminished representation, combined with losses in the south and West Beqaa, would deliver a “major blow” to Hezbollah’s claim of having cross-sectarian support, said Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
Nonetheless, Hezbollah and the allied Amal Movement swept all Shi’ite Muslim seats, according to projections from both parties. Their winners include incumbent MPs Ali Hassan Khalil and Ghazi Zeaiter, both facing charges over the devastating Aug. 4, 2020 Beirut blast. They both deny any wrongdoing. Sunni representation appeared split between allies and opponents of Hezbollah, amid low turnout for a sect once dominated by leading politician Saad al-Hariri, who has lost Saudi backing. Hariri’s withdrawal from politics splintered the Sunni political leadership and kept many would-be voters at home. Impoverished Tripoli, which is Sunni-majority, scored the lowest voter turnout nationwide.
Mustafa Alloush, a former Hariri associate who ran unsuccessfully as an independent there, said families waited for electoral bribes that never came. “It’s such a sad scene,” Alloush said.
Reporting by Laila Bassam, Timour Azhari, Maya Gebeily and Tom Perry; Additional reporting by Lina Najem; Writing by Tom Perry and Maya Gebeily; Editing by Hugh Lawson, Frank Jack Daniel and Grant McCool
Lebanon voters deal blow to Hezbollah allies in first election since economic meltdown
Turnout was low at 41%, according to Interior Ministry figures, compared to 2018 which saw nearly a 50% voter turnout. Tripoli, one of Lebanon’s poorest cities, saw voter turnout at around 30%. Soaring fuel costs and overall despair at the political system could be to blame for the low level of votes. Many Sunni voters, allied with former prime minister and leading Sunni politician Saad Hariri, boycotted the vote, setting up pool parties in stronghold areas to show their dissatisfaction at the election.
Hariri has stepped away from the limelight, leaving a gap in Sunni politics and his Future Movement party without a leader. Lebanon’s expatriate vote was held last weekend, and saw three times the turnout from the previous election in 2018, which marked the first time citizens could vote from outside of Lebanon. Meanwhile, there were reports on Sunday of voter intimidation and coercion across the country.
The Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections reportedly had to leave polling stations in the south and and in the city of Baalbek after Hezbollah and Amal supporters issued threats. The EU’s elections monitor also reported that two-thirds of polling stations were difficult to access for voters with physical disabilities.
Accelerating economic crisis
In 2019, the Lebanese pound fell sharply and is now trading at around 27,000 pounds to the U.S. dollar on the black market. In February, Lebanon’s inflation rate soared to 215% on an annual basis, and the country’s monthly minimum wage, once at $450, is now roughly equal to $25.
The World Bank has said Lebanon ranks among the world’s worst financial crises since the mid-19th century. Lebanon is also facing a food crisis, accelerated by the war in Ukraine which has crippled wheat exports globally, directly hitting countries throughout the Middle East and North Africa. The new Parliament will be responsible for implementing key economic reforms, necessary to unlock $3 billion in aid from the International Monetary Fund, who last month reached a “staff-level deal” with Lebanon.
The funds, released over a period of four years, are dependent on the government’s economic reform plan, which includes amendments to Lebanon’s banking sector, an independent audit of the country’s central bank, and particularly a solution to Lebanon’s massive financial sector losses, which stand at $72 billion.
Lebanese Election: Early Results Point to Losses for Iran-backed Hizbullah, Allies
By DEBBIE MOHNBLATT — themedialine.org —
Independent candidates, Saudi-backed Lebanese Forces party gain seats The Lebanese voted Sunday, in the first legislative election since the country plunged into a profound economic crisis. With the final results still not counted, Hizbullah and its allies appeared at risk of losing their majority in the 128-seat parliament. Voter turnout hit a record low at around 41%, down from 49.7% in the previous election three years ago. However, participation in the Lebanese diaspora reached 63.05% of registered voters, up from 56.4% in 2018.
Mona Alami, a Lebanese consultant and senior analyst, in explaining the high international participation, told The Media Line, “A lot of the people outside Lebanon are new members of the diaspora who are upset with the system because they had to leave the country in recent years. “They feel that a lot of injustice has been done, and they think that the economic crisis was triggered by the political establishment,” she continued.
Sami Zoughaib, an economist and research manager at The Policy Initiative, a Beirut-based think tank, told The Media Line, “People [still in the country] have to deal with the daily hardship of navigating through the current crisis. Most of them are completely disillusioned with the political life in Lebanon. Many have lost faith.” Zoughaib added that many in the Sunni community boycotted the vote in protest against the political system because former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his Future Movement − the biggest Sunni party − boycotted the election.
Alami added that lack of faith in the possibility of change, and fear, were also responsible for the low participation rate. She said that when she voted in Aley, a city 8 miles southeast of Beirut, she felt intimidated. “When I went to vote there were [representatives of the] the two main parties a meter away from the ballot box, checking what you’re doing. You feel pressure,” she said.
Zoughaib said that based on the early results, major breakthroughs of opposition and emerging political groups can be seen in multiple districts. Alami agreed that some traditional parties such as Hizbullah seem to have experienced considerable losses. She cited the example of Hasbaya, a town situated at the foot of Mount Hermon, where Hizbullah used to enjoy majority support. “They are saying that there are one or two independent candidates who won,” Alami said.
This is a clear sign that the broad support for Hizbullah in the area is cracking. Even in the Mount Lebanon area, where Maronite Christians and Druze predominate, some reformist candidates will take seats from the traditional parties, she said. “I think that the reformists and the independents have done a good job given everything that they were against, and given the fact that they were so fragmented. If they wouldn’t have been as fragmented I think that they would have done much better,” Alami said. Still, Zoughaib believes that despite these impressive breakthroughs, the traditional parties will retain their overwhelming majority in parliament. “At the end of the day, we are talking about a very small bloc of independent or reformist candidates in parliament. It could be 10 parliament members, tops,” he said.
However, he believes this is enough to make a difference. “Ten out of 128 can’t make a big change, but they can do great damage to the system, and they can really create cracks in the system and try to change some of the policies,” he said. On the other hand, they will not have a great say on what Zoughaib called “the larger battles” being fought in Lebanon, for instance on who will take responsibility for the $100 billion that has “disappeared” from the financial system. Alami agrees. “I think that the independent legislators are going to try to change things, but the system is completely controlled by the establishment parties.
However, I do think that there is room for change in the new parliament,” she said. Even among the traditional parties, changes are going to be seen, she explained. “[Samir] Geagea [the head of the Lebanese Forces, a Saudi-backed Christian party that opposes Hizbullah and Syrian influence] completely obliterated [President Michel Aoun’s] Free Patriotic Movement [a Christian party aligned with Hizbullah], which will no longer be able to say that it is the biggest Christian party,” she said.
The Lebanese Forces party is expected to receive around 20 seats, up from 15 in 2018. Analysts cautioned that it was still early to know the final results of the election. “The results are very initial and things can totally change; corruption can take place,” said Zoughaib. “We have to check and see what the final results are and how much the establishment parties are going to try to cheat,” said Alami. There are rumors about ballots getting lost or misplaced, and on Sunday there were cyberattacks by certain parties, she added. “These parties are not going to let go of their power so easily and they are going to do everything they can to maintain it,” she said.
As for the European observers who were sent to supervise the elections, Alami said she did not see a single one and that there are certain areas, such as the south of the country where there is a multiplicity of weapons, where the observers could not operate. Alami said that taking the new elements into account, forming a new government will be difficult. “There is going to be a huge problem with the government formation,” she said.
In Lebanon, she explained, this is generally an extremely long process, “and I think this time it is going to be even more difficult because of the change in the balance of power and because we are going to have new blood in parliament.” Nevertheless, Zoughaib believes the election is “a really important step in our fight for change in the country; it is a step toward really forcing the political parties to reflect on the moral level.”
It is unlikely to drive the country to a dramatic change in the short term, but it shows popular demand and puts popular pressure on the elite, he explained. “It will ease the way toward drastic political change in the country’s future,” Zoughaib said. Alami is also optimistic. “It’s a start,” she said. “Democracy does not come in a day, a revolution does not happen in a day, it is a long process. I think that this is the beginning of something new.”
