Statistician Nate Silver warned on Sunday that Hillary Clinton’s
path to capturing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White
House now appears narrower than President Barack Obama’s path at
this point in 2012. In an appearance on ABC’s “This Week,” the FiveThirtyEight chief
claimed Clinton is a “2-to-1 favorite,” but noted that
recent polls show Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump
with a slight edge in electoral college-heavy states like
Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina.

“The electoral college math is actually less solid for
Clinton than it was for Obama four years ago, where four years
ago we had Obama ahead 320-some electoral votes. Clinton has
about 270,” Silver said. “So she’s one state away from potentially losing the electoral
college. You’d rather be in her shoes than Donald Trump’s, but
it’s not a terribly safe position.” While other polling aggregators like the New York Times’ Upshot
and HuffPost Pollster have put Clinton’s chances
of winning around 84% and 98% respectively,
Silver’s model gives Trump a greater chance of winning.