By Ken Dilanian  nbcnews.com —WASHINGTON — A limited U.S. strike on Iran of the sort President Donald Trump says he canceled Thursday night could prompt a potent Iranian reaction that in turn might spark a much larger military conflict, current and former U.S. officials and experts tell NBC News. Iran could do enormous damage to the global economy by mining the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway off its coast through which flows 40 percent of the crude oil traded internationally. That action, even if quickly countered by the U.S. Navy, would cause oil prices to spike. But that may not be Iran’s first move in response to a limited American bomb and missile attack, experts say. Iran would likely turn first to its proxies, who could inflict major damage on American allies, experts say. Houthi rebels in Yemen could step up attacks against Saudi Arabian infrastructure with missiles and drones. Shiite militias could destabilize Iraq. Hezbollah, the Iran-backed terrorist organization, could attack Israel or other American interests anywhere in the world.

And if Iran wanted to kill Americans, any of those groups could do that on its behalf, with some deniability, said the experts. Shiite militias could overrun the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and seize hostages. Hezbollah, which, before 9/11, had killed more Americans than any other terror group, could strike in places as far flung as Latin America, where the group has a strong presence. “Traditionally, when faced with this sort of American action, Iran doesn’t tend to respond directly and immediately, but they do so asymmetrically and over a period of time,” said Ray Takeyh, a former State Department official and Iran expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. Trump said in a tweet Friday that he stopped a U.S. attack on Iran that would have targeted three sites. He told NBC’s Chuck Todd in an exclusive interview Friday that, after being told the attack could cost 150 Iranian lives, he decided it was not proportional to the downing of an unmanned spy drone.

(Bloomberg) –Abeer Abu Omar and Paul Wallace– Lebanon’s Eurobonds have entered distressed territory as a budget delay and rising political tension in the region complicate efforts to tackle the nation’s fiscal crisis. The average extra yield investors demand to hold the Arab nation’s debt over U.S. Treasuries climbed to a 10-year high of 946 basis points this week. Among emerging markets not in default, only Zambia and Argentina have wider spreads, according to a Bloomberg Barclays index. Some of Lebanon’s dollar securities, including those maturing in 2022 and 2023, already have spreads above 1,000 basis points.

Investors are losing patience as political squabbles stall economic reforms. A long-delayed budget aims to lower the deficit to 7.6% of gross domestic product this year, which would help unlock billions of dollars in aid. Prime Minister Saad Hariri said last week that lawmakers objected to some items after previously agreeing to them, and he ridiculed suggestions that Lebanon would seek a bailout from the International Monetary Fund. “The country is running out of time,” said Raffaele Bertoni, the head of debt-capital markets at Gulf Investment Corp. in Kuwait City. “Unpopular decisions are needed to keep the growing fiscal deficit under control. Until then, Lebanese sovereign bonds will continue to trade in distressed territory.”

by thenational.ae —Beirut airport has introduced new procedures allowing foreign travellers to skip time-consuming arrival and departure cards. The new measure was welcomed by passengers who saw their waiting time reduced. “No more pink cards. No more white cards. And #Beirut airport passport control (though it was relatively empty) was faaaaast,” tweeted one. Before going […]

by Sam Brennan — by al-monitor.com —TAANAYEL, Lebanon — Bobbing up and down in the circles of the folk dance dabkeh and eating a rich assortment of dips, meats and vegetables known as mezze, hundreds of people celebrated a drink that makes both dabkeh and mezze more enjoyable, the anise-based spirit Arak. The small town of Taanayel’s Festival de L’Arak, now in its fourth year, was held June 15-16 in the Bekaa Valley. Run by Arcenciel, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization that promotes diversity and development, at the organization’s EcoLodge hotel, the event celebrated the long history and unique cultural role of Lebanon’s national drink. Served with two-thirds water and ice, the liquor is similar to but — as arak producers quickly and forcibly point out — still distinct from other anise-based drinks like the Greek ouzo or Turkish raki. It is made by crushing grapes and distilling them into alcohol using a copper contraption called an alembic. In the second or third distillation the all-important anise is added, giving the drink its distinct taste. Once the distilling is done, the liquid is placed into large clay jars to make the taste smoother. Small changes to the process lead to a wide variety of outcomes, and the alcohol content varies between 50% to as high as 80% when homemade.

Richard Kazan, the director of Arak Bechara Balaban and one of the many producers at the festival, is well acquainted with this process as a fourth-generation arak maker. Bechara Balaban itself has been producing arak since 1883 and was the first company to be registered in the Bekaa governorate of Lebanon. Its business number is 1/1948. The capital of this governate, Zahle, is the epicenter of arak production. Originally, people “would make arak from the fermentation of grapes only,” Kazan told Al-Monitor. “Then the Zahle people added anise.”

Arak continued to be linked to Zahle and the surrounding areas, including Taanayel, often playing an integral role in holidays and celebrations. Kazan said, “My grandparents and parents during Easter would have nuts, not chocolate, and arak without water. This is a tradition. You would get one almond and a full glass of arak.” This culture is common to nearly all who grew up in Zahle. Elias Boutros Maalouf, managing partner of Chateau Rayak, told Al-Monitor that he began making arak and wine for his grandfather. Though he passed away before Maalouf could serve him arak, a photograph of his grandfather holding a vine of local grapes is engraved on Cheteau Rayak’s giant alembic.

by naharnet.com —The Syrian army detained two members of the General Directorate of State Security after reaching the border between Lebanon and Syria while on a hiking trip in the Mount of Hermon, the state-run National News Agency reported on Tuesday. NNA said the two security members were detained two days ago and were identified […]

by theguardian.com —The wife of former Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn has appealed to Donald Trump for help and rejected suggestions that she was implicated in her husband’s alleged financial crimes. Ghosn, once one of the most powerful figures in the global car industry, is awaiting trial in Japan over allegations he under-reported his salary and […]

by latimes.com —Former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, imprisoned since the military removed him from office in 2013, died Monday after collapsing in court, officials said, putting the nation’s authoritarian-minded government on the defensive over his treatment in custody. The country’s first democratically elected president and a leader of the now-outlawed Muslim Brotherhood movement, the 67-year-old California-educated Morsi lasted only a year in office before his defense minister, Abdel Fattah Sisi, moved to wrest power from him. Sisi has been president ever since.

Egyptian authorities did not immediately disclose the cause of death. The public prosecutor said in a statement that Morsi was taken to a hospital after his collapse, and pronounced dead there. It said there would be a forensic report, but did not say when that was expected. Security jitters were immediately apparent after the death announcement. Egyptian media said the Interior Ministry had ordered a state of the highest alert. But in Tahrir Square — the epicenter of the Arab Spring protests that set in motion events that led to Morsi’s presidency – the mood was calm, with little obvious sign of extra police vigilance, although some street cafes were closed. On a nearby bridge over the Nile, Egyptian families were enjoying a night out, with vendors selling balloons and snacks. Morsi’s death, which followed years of reports of his health deteriorating in prison, was a dramatic new inflection point in Egypt’s tumultuous journey from the massive Arab Spring protests of 2011 that toppled Hosni Mubarak, a dictator of decades’ standing, and the country’s subsequent slide into a new era of repression under Sisi.

State television said Morsi collapsed during a court session that was part of his trial on espionage charges, one of dozens of legal proceedings that punctuated his years of imprisonment on an array of charges. At one point he was sentenced to death. In early courtroom appearances, he defiantly maintained that he was the country’s legitimate president. After he yelled angrily at judges, the authorities soundproofed the cage-like dock in which the accused are customarily held.

Washington (CNN) — The US will send 1,000 additional US forces and more military resources to the Middle East amid tensions with Iran, the Pentagon announced Monday. “In response to a request from the US Central Command for additional forces, and with the advice of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and in consultation with the White House, I have authorized approximately 1,000 additional troops for defensive purposes to address air, naval, and ground-based threats in the Middle East,” acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said in a statement. “The recent Iranian attacks validate the reliable, credible intelligence we have received on hostile behavior by Iranian forces and their proxy groups that threaten United States personnel and interests across the region,” Shanahan said, adding that the “United States does not seek conflict with Iran.” Shortly before the announcement the Pentagon released a detailed set of photos that it said showed Iranian boats removing a mine from one of two tankers attacked in the Gulf of Oman on June 13. The US attributes the attack to Iran. Tehran has vigorously denied the charge.

“The action today is being taken to ensure the safety and welfare of our military personnel working throughout the region and to protect our national interests,” Shanahan said. “We will continue to monitor the situation diligently and make adjustments to force levels as necessary given intelligence reporting and credible threats.” News of the additional troop deployment comes as the State Department announced Monday that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will travel Tuesday to the command center that oversees Middle East military operations. A day earlier, Pompeo said the Trump administration is still mulling military action against Iran.

by _richardhall — independent.co.uk — Beirut has launched a hop-on/hop-off bus tour service as the Lebanese capital experiences huge visitor growth. The number of tourists heading to Beirut has always risen and fallen depending on the political situation in the country. The 1960s was remembered as a golden age for tourism in Lebanon, and Beirut was often called the “Paris of the Middle East”; a playground for the rich and famous. But that was brought to an abrupt halt when civil war broke out in 1975. Then after years of steady recovery, and record numbers in 2010, a war in neighbouring Syria in 2011 hit the industry again. A diplomatic spat with Saudi Arabia led to the Kingdom banning its citizens from visiting Lebanon for more than a year from 2017, dealing another blow. But according to recent numbers, tourists are flocking to Beirut again. Nearly two million came in 2018, with Europeans and Americans accounting for more than half of that number. The Lebanese government has spent the past few years trying to diversify the industry to attract tourists from beyond the Gulf, and it appears to be working.

It perhaps shouldn’t be a surprise then that the city now has its own hop-on/hop-off bus tour. Three double-decker City Sightseeing buses now prowl the city throughout the day, navigating Beirut’s notoriously traffic-ridden roads. Josh Eyre, visiting from London, is among the handful of tourists on board the bus on Friday. “I’m really enjoying it. It reminds me a bit of Tbilisi. Lots of snazzy new buildings up against lots of different architectural styles, historically. It’s an important cultural crossroads.”

(MENAFN) Lebanon’s oil and gas sector is being targeted by companies from Russia and Europe for investments while the country sets for offshore drilling this year’s end. Energy Minister Nada Boustani, speaking to Agence France Peesse, confirmed that “several big companies have visited Lebanon.” According to the Lebanese minister, “we are talking about Gazprom (Russia), […]