
“Defying the odds, vocal populists have won the two major popular
votes in the western world this year. The success of Boris
Johnson and Donald Trump raises an obvious question: could it
happen elsewhere in Europe?” That’s the question put forth by Berenberg’s chief economist
Holger Schmieding and senior UK economist Kallum Pickering in a
note to clients in the aftermath of the US presidential
elections,
which ended in a surprise Trump victory.
And they’re not the only ones. HSBC’s chief European
economist, Simon Wells, expressed
a similar idea in a note to clients on Wednesday,
writing “there is a risk that the Trump victory could boost
the popularity of anti-immigration and populist parties across
Europe.” Of course, the situations in the US and in Europe are not
identical. But, there are some similarities in the
sentiments of the electorates. “After all, the parallel to the anti-Washington rage in the US is
a rejection of the European Union; the parallel to Trump’s
anti-NAFTA rhetoric is the threat to reverse the process of
European integration that, jointly with NATO, has been the
cornerstone of peace and prosperity in Europe since the 1950s,”
wrote the Berenberg duo.
Taking it a step further, they argued that France
is the next crucial vote to watch.

Marine Le Pen, France’s
National Front leader.
REUTERS/Eric
Gaillard
Though an
Italian referendum on changes to the country’s constitution
is right around the corner, the “risk would probably be
containable” if Prime Minister Matteo Renzi loses the referendum
come December, according to Schmieding and Pickering. (Although,
back in August, Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz
told Business Insider the referendum could be the
“cataclysmic event” similar to Brexit that could trigger the
collapse of the eurozone.)








