By Samara Azzi — nowlebanon.com — “When the coffers are empty and there is a need for more money there is printing of money, which devalues the currency. When you have financial problems, polarity will increase, and so does populism of the left and populism of the right. This can produce a period of disorder and can eventually lead to civil war.” Ray Dalio Once dubbed the Switzerland of the Middle East for its robust banking system, Lebanon’s fiscal disrepute has shocked global banking regulators. Since the start of the uprisings in October 2019, 59 cash-strapped banks have shut their doors on depositors for the first time in Lebanon’s history, just ahead of a government default on its national debt. An alternative cash-based system emerged – one with ties directly to the ruling party, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and Hezbollah. It is controlled by those who are at present the ruling majority, and are appointed to find a solution through an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the 70 billion USD loss of depositors’ money.

For the last twenty years, the United States has failed to curb Hezbollah’s meddling in the banking system. Three banks were shut down in Lebanon when discovered by the US treasury to have had ties to Hezbollah and its Syrian allies, and engaged in money laundering activities. Bank Al Madina, Lebanese Canadian Bank, and Jammal Trust Bank are three examples of how Hezbollah has tried over many years to infiltrate the Lebanese banking system. All three banks were shut down by Banque du Liban, the central bank of Lebanon, following orders from the US treasury. But, surprisingly, with all the surveillance the US treasury had placed on Lebanese banks over the years to clean up their act, Hezbollah and their allies have since managed to outmaneuver and outsmart the US treasury and its sanctions and seize total control over the entire monetary system in Lebanon.

Welcome to the newly emerged “cash-based” economy, where Qard El Hassan is the only financial institution still standing. What you have in Lebanon right now is a cash remittance system where all cash flowing into the country is controlled by a few groups and individuals taking large commissions – and those same people are charged with reforming the banking system. So, what incentive does the current profiteering government have to reform the system? How can a sanctioned political party/militia and the sanctioned leader of another ruling party be incentivized to reform the system if it takes profit out of their own pockets?

By TAREK ALI AHMAD — Arabnews.com — LONDON: Ten years after the US began its mediation efforts, Lebanon and Israel have finally reached an agreement delineating their maritime border in what pundits are describing as a “historic” moment. However, some observers are taking a more cautious view. “It’s at least 10 years overdue,” said Ambassador Frederic Hof, a former director of the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, who served as US mediator in 2012 under President Barack Obama. “We need to be cautious at this point. There is still an elongated ratification process in Israel. There is a question of whether, after the Nov. 1 elections, the deal would be sustained if there’s a change in government,” he told Arab News. “On the Lebanese side, there are a couple of questions. The obvious question is: Are there indeed marketable natural gas deposits under Lebanese waters? And, given the fact that there will not likely be any revenues for five years, will the Lebanese political system undergo some changes that would enable the Lebanese people to benefit from all of this?” The dispute goes back to 2012, when the two countries failed to reach an agreement over the location of their shared maritime border. Israel initially pushed for Line 1 (see map), while Lebanon favored Line 29.

Hof, who was the first US mediator appointed to the process, proposed a line that lay closer to the Israelis’ preferred option. In the end, however, the border that was agreed is Line 23, which is closer to Lebanon’s preferred boundary. At the heart of the dispute are two offshore natural gas fields: the untapped Qana field in Lebanon’s territorial waters and the Karish field in Israeli territory. The contested claims to the resources escalated in July when Hezbollah, the Lebanese Iran-backed militia, launched a drone attack on the Karish field. Israeli air defenses managed to shoot down all three drones before they reached their target. It is hoped this week’s border agreement will stave off similar incidents. According to leaked details of the deal, revenues from gas extracted from the Qana field will be split between Lebanon and French energy company Total, and 17 percent of Total’s revenues will go to Israel. Israel will continue to have exclusive rights to the Karish field. Although the deal settles the maritime border issue, it does not affect the yet-to-be recognized land border between the two countries, the so-called Blue Line that was demarcated in 2000 and is supervised by the UN Interim Force in Lebanon.

PUBLISHED BY THE LOWY INTERPRETER — [By Rodger Shanahan] — There has been little to cheer about of late in terms of positive developments towards peace in the Middle East. But this week, the news came from an unexpected source – relations between Lebanon and Israel. An agreement demarcating a maritime boundary between the two countries allows for the exploitation of gas and oil fields below the waters of the Mediterranean. A decade in the making, this important agreement, when ratified, holds the potential to lead Lebanon out of its economic misery. It also could establish a blueprint for negotiations that may lead to further reductions in tension between the two countries. It is right to treat the good news with some caution though. So many things could diminish the potentially positive outcomes contained in the agreement.

First, and perhaps most importantly, the agreement is by no means a panacea for Lebanon’s economic ills, which are so systemic that no potential windfall from Mediterranean oil and gas is likely to alleviate them. The degree to which servicing personal patronage networks, rather than pursuing the national interest, remains the focus of many Lebanese politicians is best illustrated by the government’s unwillingness to undertake the necessary reforms negotiated with the International Monetary Fund despite the country facing its worst economic crisis since the civil war.

Another reason for not bringing out the party whistles just yet is the fact that any potential windfall from offshore oil and gas deposits for Lebanon is both uncertain and, if viable, would be years away from realisation. And one of the potential gas fields (Qana Prospect) lies across the agreed maritime boundary (Line 23 in the map) and the remuneration for Israel’s share of the profits from the field will be decided between the commercial operator of the field (exploiting the field on behalf of the Lebanese government) and the Israeli government.

By Jamie Prentis — thenationalnews.com — Lebanon’s parliament has failed for a second time to elect the country’s next president, with not enough MPs present to reach the quorum. Speaker Nabih Berri adjourned the house until October 20, less than two weeks before the term of incumbent Michel Aoun expires. With a consensus candidate yet to emerge, the prospect of a presidential vacuum looms. An attendance of two thirds — or 86 MPs ― in the 128-seat Parliament is required to meet the quorum. But only 71 were present in the deeply divided chamber on Thursday. Lebanese Parliament fails to elect new president in first round of voting

This is the second time that MPs have failed to elect Lebanon’s next head of state after no clear winner emerged during a vote at an initial session on September 29. On that day, MP Michel Moawad, whose father Rene served as president for 18 days in 1989 before being assassinated, received the most votes, with 36. He was mainly backed by a grouping of MPs who are critical of Iran-backed Hezbollah, the armed group and political party that has significant sway in Lebanon. “We are ready at any time to elect a president but it is clear today that several parties are not ready for the presidential election because of differences,” said Georges Adwan, a senior MP in the Lebanese Forces party.

The LF, a staunch critic of Hezbollah, supported Mr Moawad in the last round. In the first polling round, a two-thirds majority is required to win. But only an absolute majority is needed in subsequent votes. The failure to find a successor to Mr Aoun, 89, in the first two rounds was not unexpected and has precedent — it took 46 sessions and 29 months for parliament to elect the former army commander in 2016.

By Daniel Stewart – msn.com — Lebanese President Michel Aoun confirmed Thursday in an address to the nation that Beirut has approved the agreement reached Tuesday with Israeli authorities to demarcate their common maritime border, a pact he called “historic”. “This indirect agreement responds to Lebanese demands and preserves our rights in their entirety”, Aoun assured after accepting the conditions set by the last proposal of the American mediator, Amos Hochstein. He stressed that this pact between the two nations, which he described as a “historic achievement”, has stipulated “how to resolve any future disputes”, while assuring that the country’s land borders “have not been touched”.

Hezbollah leader says will back maritime border agreement Aoun explained that Lebanon has preserved “an area of 860 square kilometers” without ceding “any kilometer to Israel”. “No normalization was reached with Israel, no direct talks or agreements were concluded,” he added, as reported by the Lebanon 24 news portal. The day before, the Israeli government also approved the provisions of the agreement with an “overwhelming majority”, as announced in a statement, in which it assured that it would go before Parliament to give it a final ‘yes’. The pact recognizes the border set with buoys by Israel, allowing Lebanon to enjoy exploitation of the area north of Line 23, including the Qana field. Israel would retain control of Karish and has said it could start work in the area, amid threats to do so by the Lebanese Shiite militia-party Hezbollah.

سجعان قزي

@AzziSejean

لا يجوز الخلطُ بين الشكلِ (كَبْوةُ لياقةٍ في تحديدِ موعدِ جلسةِ الانتخابِ في 13 تشرين الأوّل بالذات) وبين الجوهرِ (انتخابُ رئيسٍ جديدٍ للجُمهوريّةٍ مهما كان موعدُ الجلسة). وإذا كان القصدُ من تحديدِ 13 تشرين هو خلقُ إشكاليّةٍ تُعطِّلُ انعقادَ الجلسة، فأبسطُ قواعدِ الذكاءِ أنْ تُطوَّقَ هذه الإشكاليّةُ المتَعمَّدةُ بالحضورِ وبانتخابِ رئيسٍ أو بتحويلِها شرارةَ ثورةٍ وطنيّةٍ إذا لم يَتمّ انتخابُ رئيس. سنةَ 1798، حين رَفضَ الملكُ لويس السادس عشر إجراءَ الإصلاحاتِ المطلوبةِ، انتفض “ميرابو” وتوجّه على رأسِ “عامّةِ الشعب” (Tiers Etat) وقِوى أخرى إلى قلعةِ الـــ”باستيل” حيث كان السلاحُ مُخزَّنًا ومكدَّسًا ووَضعوا أيادِيهم عليه، وانتقلت فرنسا من إجراءِ إصلاحاتٍ إلى انطلاقِ ثورة.

مُعضِلتُنا في لبنان أنّنا في إصلاحاتٍ خطأٍ، وفي ثورةٍ خطأٍ، وفي دولةٍ خطأ. وإذا حلَّ علينا يومٌ صَحٌ أنْجزنا فيه عملَا خطأ. لذلك، الرهانُ اليوم يتعدّى رمزيّةَ المواعيد إلى خطورةِ المرحلةِ حيث أنَّ لبنانَ يجتازُ أخطرَ أزْمةٍ وجوديّةٍ بغلافٍ سياسيٍّ ودستوريٍّ واقتصاديّ. كما يعيشُ العالمُ حربًا شبهَ عالميّةِ بين روسيا وأوكرانيا وأوروبا، ما يَفرِضُ على لبنانَ أن يَتحصّنَ بشرعيّةٍ طبيعيةٍ وكاملةٍ لمنعِ أيِّ طرفٍ داخليٍّ أو دولةٍ أجنبيّةٍ من وضعِ اليدِ عليه.

by dw.com — Rob Mudge — Lebanon is in the midst of a currency crisis and has devalued its local currency. But implementing a new exchange rate policy is set to have catastrophic consequences on people’s daily lives. A man holding up Lebanese lira and US dollar bills Amid Lebanon’s financial and economic crisis, the US dollar is king but it’s getting costlier to get hold of it Lina Boubess, 62, hasn’t missed any protests since Lebanon’s economic and financial crisis erupted in October 2019. Although she gained the title of “Mother of the Revolution” because of her constant participation in every anti-government protest in Beirut, Boubess told DW that her life changed dramatically over the last three years, and she became a full-time activist to support the next generation. “Before the economic crisis, I could afford to travel abroad every month. I used to have a luxurious life. But now, I cannot afford it anymore. I have to think about how to cope here. I don’t have a credit card. Banks stole our money,” she said. Although Boubess can still afford to buy food, she doesn’t know what will happen later. “All my life changed. That’s why I am on the street,” she said.

Boubess is worried about the announcement of the government’s plan to slash the official exchange rate from 1,507.5 Lebanese lira per US dollar to 15,000 Lebanese lira — 10 times more than the current official exchange rate. “This will be terrible for people. Everything is going to cost more. I wonder where the people are. This will be high for me and everybody,” she said. protesters scaling the gates of Lebanon’s parliament building The protests in Lebanon show no sign of abating as the country’s economic crisis takes its toll Why the new exchange rate is essential On September 28, Finance Minister Youssef Khalil announced that the Lebanese government was planning to gradually increase the official exchange rate starting from November 1. The current rate of 1,507.5 Lebanese lira has been pegged to the US dollar for 25 years. Khalil’s announcement to adjust the official exchange rate is relevant for several reasons.

by middleeastmonitor.com — Reema Abu Khalil — Lebanese women are still excluded from the main decision-making positions in Lebanon, such as the presidency of the Republic, premiership and parliament speaker, despite their prominent presence in the human rights and diplomatic fields, and in international forums. There has also been improvement in female representation in the Lebanese Parliament in the last elections that took place in May 2022, with 8 women winning seats, in the best representation of women nominated and reaching the Parliament in the history of the country. With the end of the mandate of Lebanese President, Michel Aoun, approaching on 31st October, the Parliament began its sessions to choose his successor, but the list of candidates is still unclear. However, it was notable that two women from outside the traditional six main political forces announced their candidacy for the presidency, namely Tracy Chamoun, the former Lebanese ambassador to Jordan, daughter of the late leader Dany Chamoun, and grand-daughter of the second President of the Republic in Lebanon after independence, Camille Chamoun. The second candidate is May Rihani, the Lebanese writer and expert in global development in the field of girls’ education and women’s rights.

With the Lebanese Parliament holding the first session to elect a new president of the republic on 29th September, the names of Chamoun and Rihani were completely absent, limiting the competition in the session to blank ballot papers, MP Michel Moawad, Salim Eddeh, and Lebanon. The only female name mentioned in the session was that of the young Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, whose death sparked protests in Iran, in order to document a position and send a message to the Hezbollah MPs and the Iranian regime. While presidential candidate, Tracy Chamoun, declined to make a statement, presidential candidate May Rihani told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that a women’s candidacy for the presidency in itself is support for the women’s leadership role and acknowledgement. She added that it is time for women to reach leadership roles, noting that she had met with a large number of MPs who belong to large blocs and others who are independent, a number of whom are men, and they are ready to back the candidacy of a qualified woman with experience and specifications suitable for the position of the Presidency of the Republic. She also stressed that there is political support for her candidacy from certain parliamentary blocs and independent or reformists, noting “There is a chance for me to reach the presidency.”

by whitehouse.gov — President Biden transcript: “Today, I am pleased to announce a historic breakthrough in the Middle East.  After months of mediation by the United States, the Governments of Israel and Lebanon have agreed to formally end their maritime boundary dispute and establish a permanent maritime boundary between them.  I have just spoken with the Prime Minister of Israel, Yair Lapid, and the President of Lebanon, Michel Aoun, who confirmed the readiness of both governments to move forward with this agreement.  I want to also thank President Emmanuel Macron of France and his government for their support in these negotiations.  

Energy—particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean—should serve as the tool for cooperation, stability, security, and prosperity, not for conflict.  The agreement announced by both governments today will provide for the development of energy fields for the benefit of both countries, setting the stage for a more stable and prosperous region, and harnessing vital new energy resources for the world.  It is now critical that all parties uphold their commitments and work towards implementation.  

This agreement also protects Israel’s security and economic interests critical to promoting its regional integration.  It provides Lebanon the space to begin its own exploitation of energy resources.  And it promotes the interests of the United States and the American people in a more stable, prosperous, and integrated Middle East region, with reduced risks of new conflicts. “

By voanews.com –– President Joe Biden on Tuesday hailed a U.S.-brokered maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon as a “historic breakthrough in the Middle East” that allows cash-strapped Lebanon to explore potential gas deposits in the Mediterranean Sea, while giving Israel more security and stability in the volatile region. “The agreement announced by both governments today will provide for the development of energy fields for the benefit of both countries, setting the stage for a more stable and prosperous region, and harnessing vital new energy resources for the world,” Biden said in a statement. “It is now critical that all parties uphold their commitments and work towards implementation.” The two neighbors have been formally at war for decades and have no official communication, so the deal was brokered over several months by American officials.

Israel discovered the massive deposits off its coast in 2010, but Lebanon raised concerns that the deposits may stretch into Lebanese waters. And Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah Party has threatened to protect what it claims is its territory. Speaking to journalists, a senior Biden administration official described the agreement as balanced. “This agreement is not a win-lose agreement,” said the official, who asked not to be named, as is common practice when the White House briefs reporters. “The parties are not getting more than the other because they get different things. The win for Israel is around security, stability and economic gain. The win for Lebanon is economic prosperity, economic development, foreign direct investment and hope for an economic recovery.”

Asharq Al-Awsat  — Lebanon and Israel have reached a historic agreement demarcating a disputed maritime border between them following years of US-mediated negotiations, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said on Tuesday. While limited in scope, a deal would mark a significant compromise between states with a history of war and hostility, opening the way for offshore energy exploration and easing a source of recent tensions. “This is a historic achievement that will strengthen Israel’s security, inject billions into Israel’s economy, and ensure the stability of our northern border,” Lapid said in a statement. In Lebanon, President Michel Aoun said the terms of the final US proposal were satisfactory and he hoped the deal would be announced as soon as possible.

The agreement is meant to resolve a territorial dispute in the eastern Mediterranean Sea in an area where Lebanon aims to explore for natural gas. Israel is already producing natural gas at fields nearby. It sets a border between Lebanese and Israeli waters for the first time and also establishes a mechanism for both countries to get royalties from an offshore gas field that straddles the boundary. The deal does not touch on their shared land border. Lebanese negotiator Elias Bou Saab told Reuters that the latest draft “takes into consideration all of Lebanon’s requirements and we believe that the other side should feel the same.” It was also endorsed by the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, which until recently has threatened to attack Israeli gas facilities, according to two officials. A senior Lebanese government official and an official close to Hezbollah said the group had agreed to the terms of the deal and considered negotiations “over.” Hezbollah has yet to formally comment. While Israel has moved ahead with production and export of natural gas, Lebanon’s efforts have been hamstrung by political dysfunction.