BEIRUT (AP) — Lebanon and Sri Lanka may be a world apart, but they share a history of political turmoil and violence that led to the collapse of once-prosperous economies bedeviled by corruption, patronage, nepotism and incompetence. The toxic combinations led to disaster for both: Currency collapse, shortages, triple-digit inflation and growing hunger. Snaking queues for gas. A decimated middle class. An exodus of professionals who might have helped rebuild. There usually isn’t one moment that marks the catastrophic breaking point of an economic collapse, although telltale signs can be there for months — if not years. When it happens, the hardship unleashed is all-consuming, transforming everyday life so profoundly that the country may never return to what it was. Experts say a dozen countries — including Egypt, Tunisia, Sudan, Afghanistan and Pakistan — could suffer the same fate as Lebanon and Sri Lanka, as the post-pandemic recovery and war in Ukraine spark global food shortages and a surge in prices.

ROOTS OF CRISIS

The crises in Lebanon and Sri Lanka are rooted in decades of greed, corruption and conflict. Both countries suffered a long civil war followed by a tenuous and rocky recovery, all the while dominated by corrupt warlords and family cliques that amassed enormous foreign debt and stubbornly held on to power.

by reuters — BEIRUT – Lebanon’s caretaker premier Najib Mikati will likely be nominated for a new term on Thursday, political sources said, keeping him at the helm as the country prepares for steep financial and political challenges in the months ahead. If re-installed, Mikati will have to steer Lebanon through an economic recovery plan that aims to secure a $3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout to ease the country’s financial meltdown, one of the worst in modern times. Factions of Lebanon’s political and financial heavyweights remain divided over key issues, including how to address financial sector losses estimated at over $70 billion.

Political sources said Mikati, a billionaire from the northern port of Tripoli, would garner the support of over 50 of 128 parliamentarians, including the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah, the allied Amal party, and Sunni Muslim lawmakers. They are set to nominate Mikati during consultations with President Michel Aoun on Thursday at the presidential palace in Baabda, party sources told Reuters. If more parliamentarians back Mikati than any other candidate on Thursday, even if they do not comprise an absolute majority, then Aoun will name him to form a government. That process often draws out for months in Lebanon as the main political factions divvy up roles in cabinet and beyond. In theory, Mikati’s new term may not last long: after Aoun’s term ends on Oct. 31, parliament will elect a new president – who names a new premier to form another cabinet.

Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement will not back Mikati, according to party head Gebran Bassil. The Lebanese Forces Party, a Christian faction close to Saudi Arabia and vociferously opposed to Shi’ite Muslim Hezbollah, announced on Wednesday it would nominate no one. The LF has the largest single-party bloc in parliament. A host of independent newcomer parliamentarians were set to vote for Nawaf Salam, a judge and Lebanon’s former ambassador to the U.N.

by arabnews.com – Najia Houssari — BEIRUT: The municipality has recently removed Hezbollah slogans, images and billboards that had been put up for years on the road to the Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut. They have been replaced with welcome signs by the Tourism Ministry to greet tourists and expatriates returning to Lebanon for the summer vacation. Pictures of Hezbollah leaders and deceased party members, as well as the party’s yellow banners, have long occupied the airport road space on both sides and in the median strip. The airport road borders the neighborhoods hosting the offices of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement — the two main Shiite parties — and their security zones. The sizes of the pictures almost exceeded that of the houses and small shops located on both sides of the road.

The images were not limited to the party’s Lebanese members but also included Iranian and Iraqi military, religious and political leaders such as Qassem Soleimani, Ayatollah Khomeini, Ali Khamenei and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, so much so that many people who crossed this road were confused as to whether it was part of Lebanon or Iran. Politicians opposed to Hezbollah often called for the removal of the images, which they described as “provocative to the Lebanese.” They blamed the state for its compromise with the party or its inability to confront its authority, prominently displayed on the route taken by diplomats and political figures coming to Lebanon. The removal of the propaganda material came in response to a call by caretaker Minister of Tourism Walid Nassar, who is affiliated with the Free Patriotic Movement, allied to Hezbollah.

By Najia Houssari — arabnews.com — BEIRUT: Lebanese President Michel Aoun stressed on Monday that Lebanon is “committed to carrying out the required reforms,” but said the country “needs the IMF’s program within the limits of its applicability in Lebanon.” Aoun’s stance coincided with a warning by caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati for “the international community to cooperate with Lebanon to secure the return of Syrian refugees to their country, or else Lebanon will work to get Syrians out through legal means and the firm application of Lebanese law.” Aoun met with the newly appointed representative of the International Monetary Fund in Beirut, Federico Lima, who called for a speedy adoption of reforms, including capital controls, banking secrecy and other measures related to restructuring the financial sector.

In April, Lebanon and the IMF signed a staff-level agreement, a mutual declaration of intent between the IMF mission and the Lebanese negotiating delegation. However, before the signing, Lebanon needs to meet all the conditions set by the IMF. Lebanon is politically divided over the adoption of the required reforms, particularly the economic recovery plan, the establishment of the independence of the judiciary and the development of a credible plan for the electricity sector, keeping the sector away from brokerage and quotas, distribution and service projects. The country has failed to implement the IMF’s terms for the past two years, since the start of talks. Conditions include, for example, the consolidation of the Banque du Liban’s exchange rates, the development of a clear strategy for restructuring public debt in the medium and long term, the development of an agreed strategy for restructuring the banking sector, and an audit of the bank’s budgets, which determine its financial position and its remaining liquidity in foreign currencies, so as to develop transparency.

by nidaalwatan.com — ألان سركيس —

يأتي الرئيس ميشال سليمان في ترتيب الرئيس العاشر الذي وصل إلى كرسي الرئاسة بعد الإستقلال وحَكَم، والرئيس الـ12 الذي انتُخب لأن هناك رئيسَين استشهدا وهما الرئيس الشهيد بشير الجميل والرئيس الشهيد رينه معوّض، فشكّل عهده مرحلة إنتقالية، إذ إنه الرئيس الأول الذي انتُخب بعد خروج الإحتلال السوري، استلم دفّة الرئاسة من الفراغ بعد إنتهاء ولاية الرئيس إميل لحود الممدّدة، ولم ينجح مجلس النواب في ربيع 2014 في انتخاب رئيس وبذلك فقد تسلّم الفراغ الرئاسي زمام الحكم في بعبدا.

لا يمكن إجراء تقييم نهائي لعهد الرئيس سليمان حالياً لأن التاريخ هو الكفيل بالحكم، لكن الأكيد أن عهده هو الأفضل بعد توقيع «اتفاق الطائف»، فقدّ سلّم بلداً فيه أقلّه حدّ أدنى من المؤسسات، مصارفه لا تعرف لمن تسلّف وتمنح القروض، جيشه ومؤسساته الأمنية والعسكرية صامدة في وجه «الدويلة»، القضاء محافظ على هيبته، سياسة البلد الخارجية متوازنة والدول العربية تحتضن لبنان المنفتح على كل دول العالم ويزوره أهم الرؤساء والشخصيات العالمية أمثال البابا بنديكتوس السادس عشر، وخطاب الرئيس في آخر سنة من عهده كسر المحرّمات، وأصابت سهامه معادلة «حزب الله» الثلاثية، أي «جيش وشعب ومقاومة»، وأطلق عليها اسم المعادلة «الخشبية»، ونجح في رسم خريطة طريق تنطلق من مبدأ «إعلان بعبدا»، كل ذلك حصل على رغم انطلاق الربيع العربي والأزمة السورية، لكن بعد مرور نحو 8 سنوات وشهر على نهاية عهد سليمان، وبعد استلام الرئيس ميشال عون زمام الرئاسة بعد سنتين ونصف السنة من الفراغ، ها هو لبنان يعيش الجحيم الحقيقي، أموال الناس في المصارف سُرقت، الدولة أفلست، الصروح التعليمية تعثرت والنظام الإستشفائي ضُرب، لبنان معزول عربياً ودولياً ودخل في صلب محور «الممانعة»، وانقلب عهد الإزدهار إلى عهد «جهنم» والنهاية كانت أن رئاسة الجمهورية تُغطّي «الدويلة» التي تنهش الدولة، فبات البلد يعيش في جهنّم وعصفورية.

by aawsat.com — Beirut – Asharq Al-Awsat Lebanon’s Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rai called for the formation of a new government, asserting his rejection of a “caretaker government,” “constitutional vacuum,” and “presidential vacancy.” Speaking after the Maronite Church’s Synod of Bishops’ spiritual exercise, Rai called on civil and political officials to resolve the issue of the government and prepare for electing a new president without delay. Rai said it is time to decide whether “we are worthy of this nation and its pluralistic composition.”

He indicated that the political parties are irresponsible and disregard people’s sufferings and the fate of Lebanon.” “This is a delicate stage that calls for choosing a credible prime minister who has the experience, knowledge, and wisdom in public affairs capable of forming a cabinet with the President of the Republic as soon as possible to take urgent decisions, the first of which is to initiate vital and expected reforms,” asserted the Patriarch. He called on the international community to help Lebanon by finding a solution to the presence of Palestinian refugees and displaced Syrians on Lebanese soil, stressing that “the human and brotherly feelings that we have for these two brotherly peoples do not nullify the national thinking in the interest of Lebanon.”

Rai noted that it could not be accepted that many parties, especially at the international level, consider refugees and displaced persons a reality that must be adapted to the point of integration, settlement, and naturalization. He wondered how some countries can claim they are keen on maintaining Lebanon’s independence and stability while they work to undermine its unity. “This is a destructive logic that will inevitably undermine Lebanon’s unity and force us to confront it to save Lebanon’s entity, its current constitution, and its charter formula.” He called on the Lebanese state to make an exceptional effort by negotiating with the Palestinian Authority, the Arab League, the United Nations, and major countries to redeploy the refugees in countries capable of accommodating them. He also stressed that the time has come for the displaced Syrians to return and build their homeland.

by middleeasteye.net — By Marie de La Roche Saint-André in Beirut — The lack of state regulation of growing urbanisation in Lebanon has led to an anarchic expansion and degradation of the country’s natural heritage at a time of chronic political and economic unrest. Lebanon is one of the most urbanised countries in the world: 88.76 percent of its population is living in or near existing built-up areas, according to a UN report. The report, published in 2021 by the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), attributes the problem partly to the fact that the Lebanese state has had a “laissez-faire” policy when it comes to development, but it also highlights a number of other factors that aggravate the situation. These include limited local planning regulations and the absence of urban policies, the formation of informal, slum-like, areas on the outskirts of cities, the illicit use of public properties, alongside the progressive loss of green spaces, natural resources, and biodiversity.

The phenomenon is not new. As early as the 1950s, there was already an increase in illegal construction due to urban pressure, the influx of mainly internal refugees, and an unstable political context. The irregular district of Ghobeiry in the southern suburbs of Beirut bears particular witness to this phenomenon. After the crisis of 1958, which was caused by political and religious tensions, the district suffered its first wave of public land occupation. The Lebanese civil war (1975-1990) exacerbated the problem under the command of the municipality led by the Shiite Amal movement, in particular, because of the influx of refugees. Where bordered by the sea, slums now stretch for several kilometres along the coast.

سجعان قزي

@AzziSejean

قد تكونُ المفاوضاتُ حولَ الثروةِ النَفطيّةِ والغازيّةِ بين لبنان وإسرائيل نَجحت وانتَهت قبلَ أن تبدأَ ما دام لبنانُ تخلّى عن اعتمادِ الخطِّ 29 وعن المطالبةِ بحِصّةٍ في حقلِ “كاريش”. والتوقيعُ على الاتفاقِ صار مسألةَ وقتٍ تُحدّدُه ملابساتُ الاستحقاقاتِ الحكوميّةِ والرئاسيّةِ في لبنان والتطوّراتُ الإقليميّةُ والدوليّةُ المتدافِعة.

وقد تكون الحربُ أيضًا بين إسرائيل وحزبِ الله وَقعَت وانتهَت. ولائحةُ رئيسِ أركانِ الجيشِ الإسرائيليِّ أڤيڤ كوخاڤي (12 حزيران) التي عدّدَ فيها الدمارَ المنتظَر أن يَلحَقَ بلبنان، هي بَيانُ ختامِ الحربِ لا بَيانَ إعلانِها. وهكذا كان خِطابُ التهديدِ الذي شَهرَه السيّد حسن نصرالله في وَجهِ إسرائيل (09 حزيران). بالتالي، يكون نصرالله وكوخاڤي على “عِلمٍ مُسبَقٍ” بالأهوالِ التي ستَنتُجُ عن حربٍ بالغَلَط اليومَ أو عن حربٍ مقرَّرةٍ لاحقًا.

الإشكاليّةُ أنَّ اندلاعَ العنفِ في الجَنوبِ ليس قرارًا لبنانيًّا وإسرائيليًّا فقط، بل تُشاركنا فيه إيران التي تَستخدمُ لبنانَ ورقةَ ضغطٍ في مفاوضاتِها وصِراعاتها مع أميركا وإسرائيل. لذلك يَقتضي الحذَرُ حيالَ المفاوضاتِ والحربِ، عِلمًا أنَّ الدولَ المعنيّةَ بالحربِ في لبنان والمِنطقة (إسرائيل وإيران وأميركا) لا تريدُ الحربَ، فيما الدولُ التي لا تُحاربُ تريدُها.

إنَّ امتناعَ حزبِ الله عن القيامِ بعملٍ عسكريٍّ، لن يوقِفَ، بالضرورةِ، إسرائيلَ عن استخراجِ الغازِ من حقلِ “كاريش”، إنّما يُعفيها من القيامِ بعملٍ عسكريٍّ لضمانِ استخراجِه. بينما قد يَرتَــئي حزبُ الله القيامَ بذلك في حالِ اعتَبر نفسَه، لا الدولةَ اللبنانيّةَ، مرجِعيّةَ القرارِ في ترسيمِ الخطوطِ والحدود، في حالِ واصلت إسرائيلُ استخراجَ الغاز من “كاريش” قبل انتهاءِ المفاوضاتِ الإسرائيليّةِ/اللبنانيّةِ برعايةِ الولاياتِ المتّحدَةِ الأميركيّة. إنَّ واشنطن عاجزةٌ عن إقناعِ إسرائيل بتجميدِ عمليّةِ الاستخراجِ إلى حين تنتهي المفاوضات، لكنّها قادرةٌ على إقناعِها بأن تقومَ السفينةُ “إنرجين باور” بعملِها وهي راسيةٌ جنوبيَّ الخطِّ 29 (نظريّةُ الشَفْط). هذا يعني عمليًّا أن حقلَ “كاريش” صار حُكمًا خارجَ إطارِ المفاوضات وتَـمّ التسليمُ به لإسرائيل.

بعيدًا عن شعارِ “وِحدة الموقِفِ اللبنانيّ”، التنازلاتُ التي قدّمَتها الدولةُ اللبنانيّةُ ـــ بتسهيلِ الثنائيِّ الشيعيِّ وعينَيه الساهرتَين ـــ متقدِّمةٌ، لكنّها غيرُ كافيةٍ لانتزاعِ موافقةِ إسرائيل عليها ولاستئنافِ الاجتماعاتِ اللبنانيّةِ/الإسرائيليّةِ في الناقورة التي توقَّفَت في الرابعِ من أيّار 2021. والخَشيةُ أن تناورَ إسرائيل فتُميِّزَ بين الطرحِ الإطارِ الذي أبلَغه رئيسُ الجُمهوريّةِ ميشال عون قبلَ يومين إلى الموفَدِ الأميركيّ، والاتّفاقِ الإطارِ الذي عرضَه رئيسُ مجلس النواب نبيه برّي باسم لبنان سنةَ 2020، خصوصًا أنَّ بِرّي أعاد التذكيرَ به أمام هوكشتاين واعتبرَه المرجعيّةَ الفُضلى.

by arabnews.com — Najia Houssari — BEIRUT: Lebanon’s economic collapse means that the Lebanese people are now responsible for sourcing their own electricity for most of the day, every day. Many of them are now turning to solar power — previously seen as a luxury — as a solution. Lebanese citizens do, at least, have some experience with securing their own power: For the past 40 years, the country’s patchy electricity supply has meant that 24-hour power was almost impossible to come by, so the majority of Lebanese are familiar with having to use private generators to access electricity during the country’s frequent power cuts. Plans on which billions of dollars were spent were largely ruined by political disputes and, despite the warnings of the international community, the Ministry of Energy took no action to rectify the situation. According to Bassam Mawlawi, minister of interior in Lebanon’s caretaker government, the ministry had to pay $160,000 to secure electricity for the parliamentary elections that took place last month.

Lebanon has been regularly plunged into darkness recently because of skyrocketing fuel prices resulting from the increase in the dollar exchange rate. The situation was exacerbated when the Lebanese state began to remove fuel subsidies and international fuel prices rose because of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Along with an increase in network failures, infrastructure theft has only made things worse. Considering Lebanon’s long history of power outages, it is perhaps surprising that many Lebanese are only now beginning to view solar power as an ideal solution to their energy issues. Travel around Beirut, the surrounding mountains and the Bekaa valley, and you will now see solar panels on many rooftops and balconies — even though the internal security forces have repeatedly warned against setting up solar panels without an agreement between building residents, in an attempt to limit disputes. But since solar energy allows people to be self-sufficient and spares them the costs of private generators — the fees for which can be prohibitively expensive since there is no real oversight of the industry — those warnings are falling on deaf ears.

Beirut – Caroline Akoum  — aawsat.com — Less than a week before the binding parliamentary consultations to nominate a prime minister, caretaker Premier Najib Mikati remains the most favorable candidate, while the opposition parliamentary blocs are trying to agree on another figure. President Michel Aoun has announced that the consultations would be held on Thursday at the Baabda Palace, amid criticism that the delay in setting the date was due to attempts to tailor the government before the appointment of a new premier. However, sources close to the Lebanese presidency denied the claims, telling Asharq Al-Awsat: “The reason for giving an extra week to set the date for consultations is the lack of clarity in the positions of the parliamentary blocs… Therefore, the time interval between [Aoun’s] invitation and the date of consultations is to allow the blocs to consult and study the matter…”

Meanwhile, sources in the Lebanese Forces noted that contacts were underway between all parliamentary opposition blocs to adopt a single candidate for the premiership. In this regard, sources familiar with the position of the Progressive Socialist Party told Asharq Al-Awsat that if the opposition succeeded in agreeing on the name of one candidate, the deputies of the Democratic Gathering Bloc would support them. “But if they fail to do so, the bloc may nominate Mikati,” they said.