سجعان قزي

@AzziSejean

ما شَكَّك اللبنانيّون في انتخاباتٍ نيابيّةٍ بقدْرِ ما يُشكِّكون في انتخاباتِ 15 أيّار المقبِل. أسبابُ التشكيكِ عدةٌ، أبرزُها: الارتيابُ بنيّاتِ السلطة، التخوّفُ من الوضعِ الأمنيِّ، التوجُّسُ من التدهورِ الماليّ والفوضى، وعدمُ الثقةِ بأنَّ الانتخاباتِ ستؤدّي إلى التغييرِ الإيجابيِّ المنشود.

منذ اتّفاقِ الطائف، جميعُ الاستحقاقاتِ الانتخابيّةِ مدارُ تشكيكٍ وإرجاء. النظامُ الديمقراطيُّ مُعلّقٌ بحكمِ سوءِ تطبيقِ دستورِ الطائف وسوءِ تفسيره. وفي الحالتين بحكمِ سوءِ النيّة. اسْتعيضَ عن مجلسِ الشيوخِ بمجلسِ مشايخَ مُصغّرٍ يَتحَكّمُ بالبلادِ بموازاةِ رئاسةِ الجمهوريّةِ ورئاستَي المجلسِ النيابيِّ والحكومة. واستُبدِلَت قاعدةُ الموالاةِ والمعارَضة ببِدعةِ “التوافقيّةِ” التي صَبَّت في مصلحةِ الأقوى عسكريًّا وليس في مصلحةِ الأضْعفِ ميثاقيًّا، فــثَــبَّــتَت فدراليّةً مُقنَّعةً في نظامٍ مركزيٍّ صُوَريٍّ. هذه كانت الحالُ في زمنِ النظامِ الأمنيِّ اللبنانيِّ/السوريّ، وهي مستمِرّةٌ في زمنِ النظامِ الأمنيِّ اللبنانيِّ/الإيرانيّ. البلادُ محكومةٌ من خارجِ نظامِها ودستورِها وشرعيّتِها، وخصوصًا ضِدَّ إرادةِ شعبِها. هذه انتخاباتٌ حيّةٌ في نظامٍ مَيت.

رغم ذلك، تراهنُ قوى سياسيّةٌ على الانتخاباتِ النيابيّةِ المقبِلةِ، ويُراقِبها المجتمعُ الدُوليُّ كأنَّ من صناديقِها سيُطِلُّ فجرُ لبنانَ الجديد. لكنَّ الجميعَ يَتغافلُ قصدًا أنَّ هذه الانتخاباتِ، على أهميّتِها في هذا الظرف، زُوِّرت قَبل أن تبدأَ وصارت قابلةً للطعنِ، وأنَّ نتائجَها وضيعةٌ بعدَ أن تَصدرَ. فالأكثريّةُ المنتظرةُ، أكانت لصالحِ الموالين أو المعارِضين، ستكون نسبيّةً وضئيلةَ الفارِق، وبالتالي دون القدرةِ على إجراءِ التعديلاتِ المصيريّةِ والجذريّةِ لأنَّ هذه تَتطلّبُ أكثريّةَ الثُلثين. بدأ تزويرُ الإرادةِ الشعبيّةِ والميثاقيّةِ في هذه الانتخاباتِ من خلالِ الشوائبِ التالية:

أوّلًا: نوعيّةُ قانونِ الانتخاب الذي يَصلُحُ لدولةٍ تقوم على نظامٍ حزبيٍّ حَصريّ، بينما اعتمادُه في الواقعِ السياسيِّ اللبنانيِّ يُوفّرُ الفوزَ سلفًا لقوى المنظومةِ السياسيّةِ المستهدَفةِ بمشروعِ التغيير.

by english.alaraby.co.uk — The agency in charge of issuing passports in Lebanon said Thursday it has stopped taking appointments for renewals because of a rush that has depleted stocks of new passports. Since 2020, requests for passport renewals have been ten times higher than in previous years, which has piled pressure on passport centres and […]

by arabnews.com — Najia Houssari — BEIRUT: Lebanon’s security forces have warned citizens and residents that there has been a rise in kidnappings in the country, with perpetrators seeking large sums of money for the safe return of their victims. The General Directorate of the Internal Security Forces, or ISF, said that these gangs have been using social media to lure their victims, often through ads on TikTok, claiming they can help with emigration applications. The gangs are mostly active in the Baalbek-Hermel area and on the Lebanese-Syrian border, but also operate deep in Syrian territory. A security source told Arab News that between Jan. 1 and April 20, the security services in Lebanon recorded 53 cases of kidnapping in Lebanon.

A few days ago, the Lebanese army’s intelligence officers managed to liberate local businessman Akram Jomaa seven hours after he was kidnapped in the town of Lala in the western Bekaa. The kidnappers had fled with him to the Baalbek-Hermel area in the northern part of Bekaa and tried to sell him to another gang. They demanded that his family pay a ransom for his return, but he was eventually released between the towns of Dar Al-Waseah and Bouday, in the vicinity of Baalbek.

this is an opinion article does not represent khazen.org  by arabnews.com — DUBAI: Eccentric entrepreneur, random tweeter and Tesla CEO Elon Musk this week bought his favorite social media platform, Twitter, for $44 billion — an amount approximately the equivalent of the gross domestic product of Jordan. Musk’s ambition to “save” Twitter and, as he […]

by english.alarabiya.net — Hussein Dakroub — Former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has warned that Lebanon will be deprived of promised regional and international aid if Hezbollah and its allies control the country by winning a parliamentary majority in the elections set for May 15. “There are no signs that Arab and international aid will be forthcoming if Hezbollah continues to control Lebanon,” Siniora told Al Arabiya English on Monday.

In another statement carried earlier in the day by Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency, Siniora, a harsh critic of Hezbollah, said: “What does it mean if Hezbollah and its allies gain a majority in Parliament? Amid Hezbollah’s control [of Parliament], will there be a possibility for any salvation, reforms, and Lebanon’s recovery after it was pushed into this deep abyss: a kidnapped state, a fully collapsing economy, the threat of depositors losing their money and the need for reforms in all aspects of life such as electricity, water, food, medicine and education? Definitely, no.” “With the expansion of the control of Hezbollah and the sectarian and confessional parties allied with it, this will be at the expense of the Lebanese state and its institutions, which will lead to the continued implementation of Iran’s agenda in the region. In this case, there will be no aid and no Arab or international support,” Siniora added.

Although he is not running in the upcoming polls, Siniora is supporting an 11-member electoral list that will compete to gain mainly Sunni seats in parliament in the Beirut district after former Prime Minister Saad Hariri decided to remove himself from political life. A professor of economics and international relations agreed with Siniora, warning that an election victory for Hezbollah and its allies will further complicate the Lebanese crises and impede efforts for the country’s economic rescue. “A victory by Hezbollah and its allies in the elections is bound to block the road to the possibility of Lebanon’s economic salvation. Consequently, the situation will continue to deteriorate and Lebanon will no longer exist on the map because the economic collapse means the state’s inability to survive, while it is already unable to survive,”

by arabnews.com — RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Center (KSrelief) has signed two deals to support the food and health fields in Lebanon. The memorandums of understanding were signed in the Lebanese capital Beirut with the French ministry for foreign affairs and the French Development Agency, the Saudi Press Agency reported […]

by nna-leb.gov.lb

وطنية – شدد “لقاء الجمهورية” خلال اجتماعه الدوري عبر تطبيق “زوم” برئاسة الرئيس ميشال سليمان، على “أهمية الاستحقاق الانتخابي في 15 أيار، كون مجلس النواب العتيد سينتخب رئيس الجمهورية المقبل، وهذا ما يُرتب مسؤولية كبيرة على المواطن الناخب المفترض ان يعلم انه مصدر السلطات، فيحاسب حيث يجب ان يحاسب، ويُطلق ثورته الخاصة خلف العازل، وهي الثورة القادرة على التغيير الحقيقي، فيما لو اقتنع الشعب اللبناني بفكرة الانتخاب السياسي، وليس الانتخاب العقائدي أو العاطفي أو الزبائني”.

وقال: “نلفت المقترعين الى ان خيارهم ينبغي ان يكون الى جانب حصر السلاح بيد الدولة، وتحييد لبنان عن صراعات المحاور وليس لصالح اللوائح التي ترفع شعار الاكثرية النيابية لحماية السلاح، في حين يجب ان يكون هذا الفوز المنشود من قبل ذاك الفريق ضمانة للتخلي عن السلاح غير الشرعي الذي يحول دون تحقيق سيادة الدولة وانقاذها من الانهيار”.

Beirut – Paula Astih — english.aawsat.com — Pope Francis’ visit to Lebanon on June 12-13 is of great importance to many Lebanese who see it as a gateway to hope after all the difficulties that the country has experienced since 2019. Preparations are underway for the Pontiff’s visit, in coordination between Lebanese and Vatican officials. In mid-April, the cabinet assigned Tourism Minister Walid Nassar to chair a ministerial committee to prepare for the Pope’s visit. The Maronite Patriarchate appointed Archbishop Michel Aoun to represent the Catholic Church in the committee.

Asharq Al-Awsat learned that the Papal Ambassador to Lebanon sent the Vatican a draft of the visit program established by the executive body of the Council of Patriarchs with the Papal Embassy, in coordination with the Presidential Palace. According to Nassar, a Vatican committee will visit Lebanon on April 27 to closely review the program and visit the sites that the Pontiff will tour. Nassar told Asharq Al-Awsat that he will have completed the formation of the media, financial, logistical, and security committees that will organize the visit. He revealed that the Pope wants his visit to Lebanon to be “modest and simple,” considering that it will be “national and spiritual,” as he will call for a culture of dialogue, peace, and love. After all the turmoil they went through in the past few years, the Lebanese people proved that they are strong, and the Pope’s visit will be a positive shock after all the adverse shocks, most notably the explosion of the Beirut Port, said the Minister. Archbishop Aoun stresses that the visit “gives hope to the Lebanese people.”

(CNN) By Analysis by Luke McGee, CNN — Emmanuel Macron will serve a second term as the president of France — the first person to do so since 2002 — pollsters have projected. His victory over right-wing rival Marine Le Pen by a relatively comfortable margin of 58.8% to 41.2% will be met with a huge sigh of relief in the capital cities of France’s most prominent allies — most notably in Brussels, home of the European Union and NATO. While Macron was always the favorite to win this race, the Russian invasion of Ukraine for many highlighted the need for Western unity in the face of aggression from a belligerent who seeks to undermine it. Among NATO allies and the EU, that unity has more or less stuck during the crisis, but officials feared a Le Pen victory could rock the trans-Atlantic relationship.

Le Pen could almost be purpose built as someone leaders of the Western alliance would least like running a country as important as France. France is a member of NATO, the EU and the G7. It has a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and is a nuclear power. Yet despite its deep embedment in these pillars of the Western order, France also historically favors an autonomous foreign policy, meaning it can act as a broker between the US-led Western order and nations like Iran, China and Russia. Le Pen’s previous ties to Russia, unenthusiastic view of NATO and hostile view of the EU meant that her victory would have rattled cages around the world. However, if the projections are correct, the scale of Macron’s victory tonight will mean celebrations are cut short for many French allies. Far from Macron’s impressive 2017 victory, where he defeated Le Pen comfortably with 66% of the vote, that margin is now much smaller. For all that defeating the far-right for the second time is a great victory for Macron, France’s allies will be very awake to the fact that nearly 42% of French voters, according to the data, supported someone who stands against so much of what they are for.

Vision of European unity

 Opposition candidates in the upcoming parliamentary election accuse supporters of traditional parties of disrupting their campaigns.

aljazeera.com — Kareem Chehayeb —Beirut, Lebanon – Hicham Hayek knew supporters of Lebanon’s traditional political parties would oppose his parliamentary election campaign in southern Lebanese village of Sarafand, but he did not expect that he, his running mates and attendees would be beaten, with the Lebanese army having to escort them to safety. Hayek, a medical surgeon running in the May 15 election under the slate Together For Change, told Al Jazeera that supporters of Hezbollah and its ally the Amal Movement had beaten up workers at the venue before he arrived for the event on April 16. “And as we approached the venue we saw that they had closed off the road leading to the event with tires, and they were yelling at people, attacking them and insulting them,” he said.

Southern Lebanon is a key political bastion for Iran-backed Hezbollah and Amal Movement, whose leader Nabih Berri has been speaker of parliament since 1992. “They threw rocks at us, and told us: ‘This is Nabih Berri’s territory’,” Soltan al-Hosseini, a student activist that supports Hayek. “They accused us of being foreign agents.” The candidates and supporters who made it inside the venue tried to hold the event, but more angry people showed up. “Some people tried to reason with [them], and asked them to open the road, but they were only beaten up,” Hayek said. “Then one of them took out a handgun and fired towards us.”

The army escorted Hayek and the others outside to leave safely, while those in the venue had to leave by driving on a dirt road to make it out of the area. Amal Movement, in a statement soon after the incident, denied their involvement. The army has arrested a man accused of shooting at the group, after activist lawyers fired a legal complaint. However, Amal supporters have demonstrated for his release by blocking a highway in the southern town with large piles of dirt and burning tyres.