With the Syrian civil war at its doorstep and Hezbollah
waging an active militant campaign within its borders, Lebanon is in
dire need of a stronger and more capable military. Today, reports
surfaced that Russia has expressed a willingness to help Beirut develop
one, though the military aid Moscow has to offer will almost certainly
come with strings attached.
Lebanon has been searching for military assistance since
February, when Saudi Arabia withdrew its $4 billion aid package to the
Lebanese security services. The move was largely a punitive measure in
response to Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil’s failure to
condemn Hezbollah for attacks against Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran.
That punishment stung. Lebanon has relied heavily on foreign patrons
such as Saudi Arabia, the United States, France and Syria to finance its
defense and security budget since its independence in 1943. These
patrons have in turn used their funding to gain influence in Lebanese
politics. As Beirut struggles to reconcile the country’s competing
factions and fill the presidency, which has been vacant since May 2014,
its external financiers will play an increasingly important role in
shaping Lebanon’s political future.
That is where Russia comes in. Moscow’s interest in
supporting Lebanon’s military stems from its broader interest in
Lebanese politics, particularly with regard to Beirut’s policies on
Syria. Moscow is no stranger to using its relationship with Lebanon to
gain access to other Middle Eastern nations. The Soviet Union was one of
the first countries to recognize Lebanon as an independent state, and
many in Lebanon consider the Soviet Union to have been a stabilizing
force during the country’s civil war from 1975-1990.
And so Lebanon, much like neighboring Syria, appears poised
to become a strategic partner for Russia once again. This will become
even more true as Russia and Saudi Arabia find themselves on opposite
sides of the Syrian conflict and peace talks stagnate. Moscow may try to
demonstrate its continued regional clout by increasing its presence in
Lebanon, where Riyadh’s power is waning.
Details of Russia’s impending military support will not be
discussed until Gen. Jean Qahwaji, head of the Lebanese army, visits
Moscow in June. However, previous deals between the two countries could
provide some insight into what the Kremlin’s latest aid package will
entail. In 2010, Russia struck a similar bargain, in coordination with
Syria, to provide military aid to Lebanon. At the time, it was unclear
how much of that aid would be a gift and how much would come in the form
of a sale, though Russia’s primary motivation for signing the deal was
to persuade Lebanon to buy Russian equipment with Saudi money. Likewise,
though any new military deal will probably include some aid, it will
also aim to increase Russian defense sales — something Moscow
desperately needs to replenish its coffers.
In the 2010 deal, Russia offered to give Lebanon a free
T-72 tank or a helicopter for every one it purchased. While this offer
was eventually dropped, the two sides did finalize a deal on Kornet
anti-tank guided missiles and ammunition. According to April 28 reports,
Russia’s latest proposal also includes helicopters, rocket launchers
and Kornet missiles.
So far, Saudi Arabia has refused to budge on its decision
to halt aid to Lebanon, meaning Beirut needs to find a new benefactor,
and fast. Of course, Russia is not the only option; Iran has repeatedly
offered in the past to send Lebanon military assistance, and that offer
might still stand. If it did, Beirut might accept. On Feb. 20, just
after Saudi Arabia announced its intention to cancel its funding for the
Lebanese military, Lebanese Defense Minister Samir Moqbel announced
that Beirut would take arms and military equipment from Tehran, if it
offered to supply them. And in early March, a pro-Hezbollah news outlet
said Iran might give as much as $10 billion in military assistance to
Lebanon. That said, there have not been any concrete reports of Beirut
securing Iran’s help, largely because doing so would create controversy
in Lebanon, raising questions of whether Tehran would then be able to
sway Lebanese policies in its favor.
Though Russian military aid would certainly benefit
Lebanon, Beirut still receives assistance from its traditional allies,
the United States and United Kingdom. At the end of March, Washington
delivered three UH-1H Huey II helicopters, together worth about $26
million, to the Lebanese government. They were a portion of a much
larger order for 18 Huey II helicopters that the U.S. State Department
authorized in September 2014. In the meantime, British Foreign Secretary
Philip Hammond has said that the United Kingdom will spend $30 million
over the next three years to train more of Lebanon’s land border
regiments in urban counterterrorism techniques.
No matter what country Lebanon turns to for help, it will continue to
rely on others to protect the stability of the Lebanese state in
exchange for a say in Lebanese foreign policy. If the Russian military
deal is finalized, it will simply mean yet another country will join the
ranks of the many foreign benefactors weighing in on Lebanon’s — and
the Middle East’s — future.
