by thearabweekly.com — Makram Rabah — When the French Mandate founded “Grand Liban” — the State of Greater Lebanon — almost a century ago, it was never assumed that the small merchant republic would someday reach rock bottom. Decades of unheeded political corruption, coupled with Beirut’s inability to maintain solid connections with its regional Arab allies, left Lebanon desperate for a lifeline from the international community, primarily France. The International Support Group for Lebanon (ISG), led by France and the United Nations, met December 11 in Paris to discuss options to help Lebanon in its predicament. Observers said the ISG was a first step towards Lebanon’s economic salvation because France would lead an international effort to inject much-needed funds into the Lebanese economy, which collapsing towards a total meltdown.

Time and again, French President Emmanuel Macron has shown remarkable resolve in supporting the government of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, including sponsoring the CEDRE donor conference in April 2018, which earmarked $11 billion to overhaul Lebanon’s decaying infrastructure and jump-start its ailing economy. However, the CEDRE funds were part of a wide reform package that the Lebanese state had publicly subscribed to, which included administrative, fiscal and budgetary reform, none of which were implemented by Hariri’s cabinet, leaving the $11 billion in limbo. Despite visits by French envoy Pierre Duquesne and his repeated urging to Lebanese officials of the importance of the reforms, the recommendations were ignored and the Hariri government failed to address key challenges, primarily reform of the electricity sector and the proper passing of the annual budget. Lebanon’s lack of seriousness, its irresponsible attitude and its refusal to heed the warnings of the international community were penalised in Paris when the ISG convened without any serious Lebanese presence. Beirut was represented by token senior diplomats and a few Hariri advisers.

French patronage and largesse seemed to have run their course and the ISG meeting came as a cold shower to the Lebanese officials, reminding them that, practically, they lack popular legitimacy to receive financial or political bailout and that they need to listen to their own people who are demanding reform. The ISG final statement was more or less a page from the “Lebanese revolution’s” book of demands as it “urges the Lebanese authorities to take decisive action to restore the stability and sustainability of the funding model of the financial sector, to tackle corruption and tax evasion (including adoption of an anti-corruption national strategy, the anti-corruption agency law and judicial reform and other measures to instil transparency and accountability), to reform state-owned enterprises and implement the electricity reform plan including governance-enhancing mechanism (through an independent regulatory body) and to markedly improve economic governance and the business environment, through the passing of and effectively implementing procurement laws.” This rude awakening is different from previous warnings to the Lebanese government because there is no longer an economic safety net for the tightrope act the ruling establishment has been dangerously conducting over the years.

In perhaps a reminder of the Lebanese predicament and the terrible fate that awaits the country, the ISG underscored “its commitment to Lebanon’s access to basic goods and trade facilities, as currently provided for by trade facilitation programmes, to preserve the livelihood of the population and economic resilience.” In layman’s terms, a government that cannot ensure basic goods and food to its people is not a government that can lead reform nor does it have the trust of the international community, which will refuse to keep bankrolling a Ponzi scheme and an unlimited appetite for corruption. It is pertinent to remember that the CEDRE conference was preceded by the Rome meeting, which demanded that the Lebanese government reclaim its sovereignty and properly address the challenge that Hezbollah poses on the country’s political and economic well-being. The failure of the ruling establishment, as well as Lebanese at large, to jump-start this political and economic reform process is the reason the country is beyond the point of no return. To supporters of the Iranian axis and their local Lebanese allies and cronies, Macron and the Europeans’ stance to oppose the US sanctions is their only remaining lifeline. However, just like the Iranian axis is waiting for US President Donald Trump to possibly lose office, Macron will, sooner or later, step down and what Lebanon and its Iranian allies will be left with is an international community that is beyond convinced that Lebanon’s fate is well-deserved.

 

Makram Rabah is a lecturer at the American University of Beirut, department of history. His forthcoming book, “Conflict on Mount Lebanon: The Druze, the Maronites and Collective Memory,” (Edinburgh University Press) covers collective identities and the Lebanese Civil War.