The Economist
EXCEEDING all expectations,” was how Donald Trump described his
luxury golf club in Dubai. If only his Middle East plans were as smooth
as his putting greens. Far from marking a break with President Obama’s
inclination to isolationism, Gulf rulers fear that President Trump could
increase the distance. Instead of greater intervention, protection and
the permanent troop presence in Iraq they hoped Mrs Clinton would
deliver, they now fear Mr Trump will shy from long-standing Arab allies
and abandon the region to others’ devices. “The honeymoon is over when
it comes to relations with the US,” says a palace insider in Riyadh.
Maintaining a foothold, Mr Trump will probably let the Pentagon
finish the job against Islamic State in Mosul if it has not fallen by
January 20th. He might, he says, create safe zones in Syria, to prevent
refugees from heading west. But unlike Mrs Clinton (though like Mr
Obama) he opposes supplying more arms to Syria’s Sunni rebels or
enforcing a no-fly zone to protect them. And he scorns intervention for
ideological causes, such as regime-change, democracy and foreign
nation-building, preferring to concentrate on America’s national
self-interest instead. “I don’t think that was a very helpful thing,” he
said of America’s overthrow of Saddam Hussein while on the campaign
trail. “Iraq is a disaster right now.”
That is doubtless a relief for the region’s warring tyrants, like
Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and strongmen, such as Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi in
Egypt. In September Mr Trump promised Egypt’s president a “loyal
friendship”, and unlike Mrs Clinton, did not bother him with talk of
human rights. Both men not only endorse torture and the detention of
dissidents, but also share a penchant for spreading conspiracy theories.
Mr Sisi was one of the speediest world leaders to congratulate Mr
Trump.
Powers hoping to extend their regional influence have also welcomed
their victory. “Russia, Iran, Iraq’s Shiite militias, Syria and
Hizbullah all benefit from America’s vacuum in the region and support Mr
Trump,” says a Jordanian analyst, Oraib Rantawi. In a shift that would
help all five consolidate the gains already garnered under Mr Obama, Mr
Trump professes a desire to work with Mr Putin and to fight Sunni
jihadism, which both men consider the prime global threat. “Assad’s bad,
but maybe these people are worse,” he says of Syria’s Sunni opposition.
Moreover, it is hard, he says, to tell rebels and Islamic State
fighters apart.
No less than Mr Obama, Mr Trump refers to the Gulf’s oil-rich Sunni
princes with disdain. He fuelled their anger with his campaign demands
for half of Kuwait’s oil as the price for the American-led liberation in
1991, a bar on Muslim entry to America and a possible closure of the
country’s mosques. “A disgrace,” tweeted one Saudi royal, Waleed bin
Talal, during the campaign, to which Mr Trump responded: “Dopey Prince
@Alwaleed_Talal wants to control our US politicians with daddy’s money.
Can’t do it when I get elected.”
Not all Gulf royals are despondent. Some warm to a fellow blingtastic
billionaire, and welcome a more transactional relationship. Some have
personal dealings, including stakes in such businesses as Trump SoHo,
his hotel condominium in New York, says a Gulf investor who worked with
him. (Prince Waleed bought his yacht and Plaza hotel.) Prioritising
business deals over human rights should ensure that America continues
its lucrative sale of arms to the Gulf, though Saudi excesses in Yemen
seem likely to pass without criticism. And though more a mercantilist
than a policeman of the international order, he might not be averse to
selling American protection. In the event of an escalation, will Mr
Trump still defend Saudi Arabia? Probably so, for the right price.
Israel is another country where a significant portion of the
political structure will welcome Mr Trump’s election. He ran on the most
hardline pro-Israel platform ever, omitting any mention of the
establishment of a Palestinian state in his manifesto. The current
Israeli government under Binyamin Netanyahu will welcome a State
Department led by a Trump stalwart such as Newt Gingrich, which might
abandon the decades-old policy of pressing Israel to make concessions to
the Palestinians and desist from settlement-building in the West Bank.
Still, there are reservations. Mr Netanyahu’s largest supporter,
Sheldon Adelson, a casino owner and Republican mega-donor, endorsed Mr
Trump’s campaign. But Mr Netanyahu himself is more sceptical, say those
who know him. “Bibi is risk-averse and hates surprises,” explains one
Likud politician. “Trump is unexpected and volatile and Bibi is like
many in the Republican establishment who see him as a wild card and
don’t trust him.” One reason the Israeli establishment is regarding
President Trump cautiously is his stated opposition to American foreign
military aid, of which Israel gets the largest chunk. That is one of the
reasons why Mr Netanyahu decided to sign in September a new $38 billion
10-year aid agreement, rather than waiting for the new administration.
America’s relationship with Iran seems likely to shift in ways that,
paradoxically, may please the hardliners there. During the campaign, the
state-controlled broadcaster devoted much airtime and commentary to Mr
Trump’s mudslinging and broadcast the presidential debates live. The
Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, joined in, praising the “straight-talking”
Mr Trump. Confidantes cheered Mr Trump’s anti-Saudi rhetoric and his
good relations with Mr Putin. And so what if he cast doubt on the
nuclear agreement? The conservatives have always viewed that deal with
grave suspicion, as part of an American plot to gain control of their
country.
However, what is good for the hardliners is bad for President Hassan
Rouhani, and his efforts to bring the economic benefits from the nuclear
deal to fruition. After repeated false starts, oil majors are finally
signing long-term deals with Iran. The EU, Britain still included,
recently lifted sanctions on one of Iran’s largest banks. And for the
first time, popular search engines for flights are now listing Iranian
carriers. Had Mrs Clinton won, Mr Rouhani’s men were looking forward to
continuing their working relationship with many of Mr Obama’s officials
and re-entering the global banking system. No longer. Mr Trump has
cooled on his earlier vow to tear up the “disastrous” nuclear deal
(Walid Phares, a Lebanese Christian who advises him on the Middle East,
speaks instead of “renegotiation”). But amid the uncertainty, bankers
who had been tiptoeing back to Tehran will probably get cold feet again.
