by middleeasteye.net -- Christopher Phillips -- The political futures of both Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have recently been the subject of speculation. For Assad, a dispute with his wealthy cousin amid grumblings from his ally, Russia, has prompted some to wonder whether his bloody reign may soon end. For Erdogan, the fallout from the Covid-19 crisis and associated economic uncertainty has led to murmurs about his potential departure. Yet, such speculation rarely outlines how these neighbouring strongmen would actually be toppled. Both rule over regimes, whether inherited (in Assad’s case) or created (in Erdogan’s), that make it difficult for rivals - from either within the ruling establishment or without - to overthrow them.

'Coup-proofing' the state: As is the case in many autocratic states, Assad and Erdogan have tried to “coup-proof” their regimes to ensure they can withstand far more dramatic setbacks than either currently faces. Coup-proofing is, according to author James Quinlivan, “the set of actions a regime takes to prevent a military coup”. This is more common in states such as Turkey and Syria, where there is a history of military intervention in politics. The methods vary from state to state, but Quinlivan notes similarities in the coup-proofing of Saudi Arabia, Syria and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Standout methods include packing key security positions with those tied to the ruler by family, ethnicity or religion; building up armed forces parallel to the regular military; and developing multiple overlapping internal security agencies monitoring the military and one another to prevent coups.

Assad inherited a regime that his father had coup-proofed par excellence. The extent of successful coup-proofing was seen when he avoided any serious attempt by establishment insiders to topple him, despite losing more than half of the country at one point during the recent civil war. Though thousands of soldiers defected and joined the opposition, those in key security positions, mostly from his own Alawi sect and family, stayed loyal. Similarly, the key security divisions fighting rebels in the early stages of the conflict were the “parallel structures”: the Republican Guard and the 4th Armoured Division, armed with the best equipment to defend the regime. Though it is unknown whether there were attempts at coups - there were several rumours - their absence suggests the myriad security agencies Syria had on the eve of the war proved effective.

By Matt Hadro (CNA).- President Donald Trump on Friday called on state governors to reopen churches “right now.” At a Friday press briefing, Trump said that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) would “at my direction” be issuing new guidance for churches to reopen. He said he was identifying houses of worship as “essential places that provide essential services,” noting that state governors had classified such establishments as liquor stores and abortion clinics as providing essential services, but not churches. The White House and the CDC have for weeks reportedly been in the process of drafting and publishing new guidelines for churches to reopen. On Friday, CNA learned that, according to someone familiar with the deliberations, the new CDC guidance is expected on Friday afternoon and will differ from its previous interim guidance for faith communities that was issued in March, at the outset of the U.S. pandemic. That guidance was reportedly not cleared by the White House before publishing. That guidance was reportedly met with concern by many in the faith community for certain provisions that seemed to intrude on the autonomy of religious groups, such as one recommendation that Jews should be allowed to use electronic devices on the Sabbath to stream services online.

The new guidance, CNA was told, would be more sensitive to the autonomy of churches and religions and will apply a “lighter touch” to them, functioning as a set of recommendations rather than instructions, and implying that actions taken by state and local governments that go beyond the federal recommendations are inappropriate. It has the input of lawyers with experience in religious freedom cases. The guidance will include a section for state and local leaders, saying they should recognize religious gatherings as something unique and different from other gatherings and protected by the First Amendment; it will imply that states should not be treating churches more strictly than they are treating other public gatherings or businesses reopening. Churches, however, will not be officially classified as “essential” establishments, CNA was told, as that classification can vary state-by-state in its implications for religious groups. However, calling churches “essential” in the administration’s “messaging” on the guidance was reportedly discussed.

by aljazeera.com -- by Timour Azhari -- Beirut, Lebanon - Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Thursday marked 100 days in office by touting his government's achievements during a speech at the Grand Serail - the seat of government power in Beirut. But a few blocks away, the mood was decidedly uncelebratory, as protestors once again took to the streets to vent their frustrations with a broken apparatus of a state that is not reforming fast enough to quell their anger. Comparing Lebanon to a rapidly-sinking ship that his three-month-old government is saving against all odds, Diab emphasised his government's push for anti-corruption legislation, as well as its attempts to secure more than $20bn in aid from the international community to rescue Lebanon's crisis-ridden economy. "One hundred days ago, the ship was being rocked by incoming waves, and water was entering it from many big holes. The fuel tanks were empty, the motors powerless," Diab said. "The ship was sinking rapidly, and the lifeboats were either missing or of no use. One hundred days ago we had no other choice but to take over command of the ship." "A few adventurers stood on the deck of the boat in front of scared and worried eyes. They told the passengers, 'Let us attempt rescue,'" Diab went on. "Each of those adventures went about closing the holes and fixing the malfunctions. They used their bodies as sails and held the helm, and the voyage began."

by voanews.com -- Dale Gavlak -- AMMAN, JORDAN - Prime Minister Hassan Diab says Lebanon, now suffering from an acute financial crunch and facing a COVID-19 outbreak, is also at risk of starvation. He warns that the multiple crises could spark a new migration to Europe and is asking the United States and Europe for financial help. The financial crisis is on a scale never seen before in the country. Inflation, poverty and unemployment have soared in Lebanon in recent months, with prices of goods doubling in many cases. Diab says the crisis could result in people being unable to buy bread, a staple. Analyst Michael Young says there are only two ways ahead for Lebanon. One is to carry out overdue reforms that will permit the International Monetary Fund to provide $10 billion in the first phase of a bailout plan. Young says he believes it is the only available key to unlocking wider foreign aid from the World Bank and the West. The other choice, he told The National newspaper, is to follow the path leading to “bankruptcy, state collapse, chaos, possibly famine, and mass emigration.”

Professor Habib Malik of the Lebanese American University says reforms are badly needed, telling VOA that Lebanon faces difficult, stark choices that won’t be easy to enact. “Lebanon is suffering from multiple, very profound challenges," he said. "We know the IMF is not a charitable organization. They will come with all kinds of very austere conditions. This will translate into suffering for those who did not cause the problem but who have received the short end of the stick. The same political class who did all of this is just going to hang around. It’s the same criminal political class that got us here.”